SnowDawg
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Everything posted by SnowDawg
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2019/2020 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread.
SnowDawg replied to Tyler Penland's topic in Southeastern States
From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? -
Really just the region as a whole. It has been very consistent with the suppressed look. 8 or so good members but out of 51 those aren't great odds. Most of the region outside of Coastal NC/SC currently has less than a 30% probability of QPF greater than a tenth of an inch.
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Outside of the one 18z run yesterday the EPS has been pretty locked in, not sure I'd bet against it at this point. Hoping to be wrong though.
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Very reminiscent of last week today. The models have just been vastly underestimating these weak shortwave driven events.
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Wow, 18 members with snow IMBY and 8 with over 2 inches. Problem is a big chunk will probably be wasted trying to cool the surface. I wish there was just a bit more separation behind the cold front so we could clear out the cloud deck and radiate down.
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Most concerning trend of late to me is the 850s look a lot warmer than they did a day or two ago.
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EPS control and mean stepped back from the big run at 18z but are still drastically improved from 12z.
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It's much improved over the 12z run but ultimately still suppressed for the most part. It looks very similar to the CMC. The 18z run was from the EPS which I don't think has started yet.
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The way things are modeled right now, could this end up just being a thin strip of snow where the best rates and cold 850's overlap but rain on either side?
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It's definitely a bit warmer but 850's are still below freezing across most of the region all day Thursday. Even on the mean, the surface temps reflect the precip being further north driving the temps down in the middle of the day Thursday. 18z 1PM Temps 12z
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The QPF and snow total noticeably ticked up on the ensemble mean also.
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EPS has maybe 5-6 members max with anything noteworthy in the SE.
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Temps are not an issue, there just isn't any precip falling through the cold upper level air to help drive the boundary temps down. Suppression is still the issue, with the NS moving through too fast. Mid level winds turn WNW by 7 AM Thursday and shutoff moisture transport.
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Euro moved back closer to a good solution by slowing down the NS energy, but still suppressed.
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Don't know if anyone mentioned it or not but UKMET joined the suppressed camp also.
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Canadian still playing along, albeit over a much smaller geographical area.
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EPS does not look good at all... Changes in the Euro suite from 12z yesterday to today are subtle, but they are significant.
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If this was an actual surface based LP storm in the gulf then I'd say suppression is a good thing because that's when we get our NW trends. But this is really just a thermal gradient pattern relying on SW flow to deliver moisture. Differences in the handling of the vort are what's causing the suppressed look.
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Definitely has me concerned. It's 5 day verification scores are incredible right now and we get to around 5 days out tomorrow.
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Every other model trends away from cutting off the energy in the SW and the Euro, which was leading the charge, trends toward it...
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Yeah you're right. I was reacting purely to the GFS, which looks a little quick. And that's probably my favorite start time, IF it can come in heavy enough and lock in those morning low temps.
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I've not posted in that thread yet because I refuse to participate in jinxing our best long range threat of the year lol
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I would like the onset time to push further towards Thursday morning ideally to allow for some diurnal cooling as well as more time for CAA from the cold front that just passed. Starting around 10 pm Wed night, as others have mentioned, could result in wasting some snow on cooling the boundary.
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Looks like the CMC, suppressed.
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Decent jump on the GEFS mean as well. It also showed noticably less tendency to leave the wave behind on mean vorticity.
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