SnowDawg

36.6/34.2 as of 12. Temps and Dew point fell nicely over last 30 minutes but as the rates slacked up temp went up half a degree and dew point went up 2 degrees. Frustrating.

Last 20 minutes or so have changed to more sleet that's starting to build up on the porch, but definitely haven't seen a flake yet.

Reports in Rabun county that the snow level is now around 2500 so shouldn't be long for me. Won't stick for a while though, still 36.5. Sky Valley at 3500 already has some accumulations.

Nope. Just rain, 38 degrees. Sky Valley is 32 and snow but they sit at 3500 feet.

What's your temp up that way?

Tiger, GA 39.6/36.5 Dew point just refused to budge over night, and I never really trust that it can drop efficiently under heavy rainfall. Basically throwing in the towel at this point. Looks like it'll mainly be 3000 feet and up in GA.

Tiger, GA 42. 8/31.6 Temp basically steady, dew point rising....Not good. Really need some dry air here in the next 3-4 hours.

Tiger GA. 43.5/31.3 Temp and dew point both dropping really slowly now. Starting to strongly doubt this one working out.

45/32 Tiger GA. Dew point has fallen off a cliff in the last 30 minutes after winds flipped from SE to E.

Tiger, GA 47/42 Anxiously awaiting some drier air to start filtering in.

GFS looking a little quicker with precip and a tad warmer.

Very encouraging quicker erosion of the warm nose here in the GA Mtns. Problem is it's a coarse global model and the NAM is probably better for that. Gonna be a long 24 hrs of model runs, sitting right on the dividing line.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels maybe a little over confident at this point. Even down here in the far NE GA Mtns I feel really good about where we're sitting right now as potentially being in a good spot for an overlap of the upper level cold and good QPF. Most modeling has been pretty consistent of the upper level cold beating the moisture in and starting with a surface temp of 35-37. May lose a little QPF initially during wet-bulbing but shouldn't take long. Confidence probably gonna come back to bite me, but being just about a week removed from a major over-performer has me feeling a bit more risky right now lol.

Wow, honestly a bit aggressive there from GSP. Surprising for this far out.

Question, are we referring to a northward expansion of the precip shield and a NW trend as the same thing? As was said, a significant NW trend seems unlikely because of the energy dropping in from the NW. But I feel what a lot of us really want is the wave to dig more SW and simply have better moisture transport northward during the over running portion of the event. I know globals are often terrible for QPF on the northern fringes of over running events, so that's what I'm pinning my hopes on IMBY.

Has the Euro had a tendency to be too warm at the surface lately? I know it was with the 2/8 event. 850s are right at freezing and crashing as the precip arrives, but it's in the low 40s at the surface. If that was more in the 36-38 range I'd feel a lot better about evaporational cooling being enough to overcome the boundary.

Glad to see it not look so suppressed with the moisture. Just hoping it's underestimating the cold at 850.

NAM and GFS seem to be even further apart than they were at 18z with the handling of the vort at H5. I know the dangers of the NAM at the end of its range, but it treated me so well in this last event that I am going to hug it until the bitter end if I have to lol.

NAM soundings for N GA mountains at HR 84. Surface wet bulb is below freezing. Just somehow someway need some sufficient moisture to run into it.

Just pulled soundings for my area in N GA and had an east wind at the surface. Also a typical CAD/Wedge signal.

Noticed on the individual members that a few big time snow totals showed up also. I don't think I've seen much of that on the EPS the last few days.

Timing differences between the GFS and NAM are fairly significant. NAM holds the vort back a bit more and the mid/upper level wind field over the SE is much more friendly for moisture transport. 850's still above freezing but they are crashing with surface temps in the region in the 36-40 range with still 6hrs of darkness left. I know it's the NAM at range but it definitely earned some respect with last weekends event here in my book. It led the way from the minute it came into range.

It really did look better at the beginning at H5. Wonder what went wrong? Looks like it may have did what the WPC was talking about with the UKMET trying to rotate the pacific shortwave underneath the northern stream one which they alluded to likely being too fast/strong. Just speculation though, someone with more knowledge would probably know for sure though.

Surface temps in the region as much as 6+ degrees colder than the GFS at 06z Thursday in some places. 700mbar winds are WSW throughout the whole region and the vort is consolidated and digging, with some fairly potent energy already streaming in along the boundary.

I may just be wish casting but I swear the NAM looks pretty great at the end of its run.