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STILL N OF PIKE

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Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE

  1. STILL N OF PIKE
    Ding dong
  2. STILL N OF PIKE
    NHC isn’t even confident in the environmental conditions for LEE next 4 days . Gfs and hurricane models say conducive but euro and Ukie say not so much.
  3. STILL N OF PIKE
    Guess I was wrong . Weak- moderate cat 2 maybe at 11am
  4. STILL N OF PIKE
    Looks better to me this am then at sunset yesterday . It’s growing it’s core and expanding and unless sheer picks up again ..I think we will be sub 935 MB wise Sunday 1pm kickoffs .
  5. STILL N OF PIKE
    May not be worth much but A met I follow on another tropical board says this will hit a wall at 67W ,
  6. STILL N OF PIKE
    It seems to be looking better to me
  7. STILL N OF PIKE
    0z gfs we capture and back that up A lil bit Just about 100 miles too Far East for CHH goes due north until it turns NE and just misses Eastport entertaining still for me
  8. STILL N OF PIKE
    Margot is also taking a beating , wouldn’t be surprised if that doesn’t amount to much (it could ) but NHC certainly has low confidence in its Margot intensity forecast
  9. STILL N OF PIKE
    958 MB (if it hasn’t been posted)
  10. STILL N OF PIKE
    958 mb . Just copied your post bc so many more see it when the tweet is embedded
  11. STILL N OF PIKE
    Lee caught Covid
  12. STILL N OF PIKE
    I’m more interested currently in what is the low point for Lee before it has the chance to reorganize better (according to most intensity / sheer forecasts ) sometime Sunday
  13. STILL N OF PIKE
    It’s too bad atmospheric conditions like shear are sometimes too fickle (not able to be forecast well) 24 hours out in relation to a storms ability to sustain itself . It was Thought divergent flow aloft would offset the shear ...negative
  14. STILL N OF PIKE
    Let’s open up that South west eye wall and take this further west
  15. STILL N OF PIKE
    Lee looks like crap. No banding outside tight inner core (dry air ingested). Maybe this thing can weaken more than anticipated tonite and see if that adds a wildcard . Did recon actually find winds near 130 knots recently? It looked good around noon but it’s a small size storm still , maybe more prone to disruption (intensity wise)
  16. STILL N OF PIKE
    Many EPS members well East more over Bermuda
  17. STILL N OF PIKE
    Meh , probably having the SW corner of the Atlantic ridge End at 70w effs us
  18. STILL N OF PIKE
    Well It’s closer than the waaaay out to sea 0z run as there is no kicker over sne like that run had
  19. STILL N OF PIKE
    That is a large Consolidated storm complex Chugging NE/ NNE
  20. STILL N OF PIKE
    12z euro is even slooower than 0z .
  21. STILL N OF PIKE
    9 hour drive to get the weak side of a storm ..I thought I had issues
  22. STILL N OF PIKE
    Gfs is faster than euro . 12z Gfs tickles back west as it Doesn’t recurve at 38N more a 10* North heading into gulf of Maine
  23. STILL N OF PIKE
    Looks like it’s a wrap ..until 12z models
  24. STILL N OF PIKE
    I wanna to see Lee grow big and strong this weekend as it expands
  25. STILL N OF PIKE
    Also of note SW shear is hitting lee, not sure when last Recon was but I think last hour it’s up to 931mb . The Eye appears clouded over on infared . Doesn’t look like a 5 currently , too much SW shear . Guess the divergence aloft is not “canceling out the SW shear “ to my eyes
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