STILL N OF PIKE

lol well I did edit after I posted it so ya I said I was just checking in for First time . If it’s a 70 mile eye clearing out , great . Let’s get a plane in there .

Lee looks like garbage . Dry air just took over North side of system again . Seems it just can’t get its act together . Thought it was back this afternoon now looks like crap . is this the inner eyewall collapsing finally or is it basically the storm crapping itself . Haven’t checked in this pm till now

Not much this looks like it may Kiss the W end of NS to me or do a little loop 100 Miles E of ACK

When I look at that on pivotal (6 hr increments) it looks like 6z ens (hr 144) have more that are A tad further south (compared to 0z ens) At same time . Probably looking at it too closely but that is a Subtle difference I see (not getting as much latitude )

If you used the same ending time as 6z ensembles (6z Sunday) I’m pretty sure 0z ens at hour 150 (6z Sunday ) would be about the same i.e 0z ens at hr 144 is moving NNW at the time your above post shows (0z Sunday ) next frame (hr 150) matches the 6z at hr 144 Pretty well

Jconsor had a interesting post (that I’m not intelligent enough to copy from main tropical lee thread ) about making sure you look at the 250mb level with regard to being in a negative tilt (and almost making up for a less than “historically ideal” 500mb trough For New England As it can lead to NW pull Maybe that was already known but that is one trend I’m watching and if someone could link that , folks would probably enjoy it for its inherent meteorological value , wether this hits or not

Has that been posted - just checking in for first time today

Eastham is going to have quite the current as the beach lies North - south (Faces East) And the swells are coming from the SSE/SE . S and SE facing Beaches shores will see best swell thru Thursday - Friday . The initial pulse swell is hitting the beaches already . Swell building next 5+ days Swells differentiate visually from the usual wind wave crap by being a much wider (one wave runs a few hundred feet up and down the beach and Is more “organized “ in the way it breaks By later Thursday swell size will jump and be very large Friday . Saturday depending on wether winds are side shore or onshore will be huge and sloppy or if the system is further out you could have 20+ foot waves and slight offshore breeze (clean conditions) once a decade ish surf

First trough pulls out nice and early it gets tugged back nw to about 50 miles East of ACK. The second trough in upper mid west sat am was *much shallower*/progressive and didn’t drop down like 18z or this probably would have gone to block island

The first pings of LEE swell are being picked up from bouys in the S and E New England waters. From Jeffreys ledge bouy (East of NH) to Nantucket bouy to Block island bouy . 13-14 second period from the SE currently couple foot swell . These will build all week . I find it cool how the ocean can pick up the energy from distant lee even some 1800 miles away .

I think I’m going to need a bigger boogie board

Ya I was gonna say I think he posted that before the GEFS went out far enough

Seems slower members bend NW on GEFS

Ya looks approximately 10 or so hits

GEFS look west to me . Hour 156 looks like somewhat interesting . Seems to be backing NW last couple frames on gefs

None of the other models have the 12z euro set up per se. 12z euro was 24hrs slower Then the current 12z’s and had a deep Midwest trough that pulled this NW significantly more . Other models are still 200 miles East of 12z euro and don’t have that trough digging nearly as close But changes can still be made

All models have the storm in that almost exact area moving North . It’s west of Bermuda

Post it sir

Thankfully It would take a miracle to get your roof damaged in west CT on this one . EMass beggars have a punchers chance

The off hour euro ensembles May soon be worth looking at to see if the pieces get into place for the tug- tickle north of Bermuda ( I believe they go out to 144 and the Op only 90)

I would set the line at 150 East of 12z op but we will see

As low probability as it is , the idea of the -Nao drop and the second camp potentially emerging In the gfs camp (Slower and closer ) has my interest piqued more I was in this for the swell/ wave phenomenon that will show up Thur , Fri (sat if slower solutions win out ) so the bar was pretty low for my interest , I just can’t help driving out to a point and watching the show in front of the new port mansions (ruggles famous big wave spot) on east coast in hurricane swell

Let’s keep that dopamine drip trickling all day baby , let’s get It flowing till Ray wants a sip

At first glance the track is , but the major exception as New Englanders know , is Except for the euro moving 3x slower and giving Lee much more time to weaken over cooler waters .

Ya I don’t think it was Margot , it was buried so long that a second better oriented trough steered it just w of Due N (I think )