STILL N OF PIKE

Margot interaction on euro weakened ridge more , set it up for a East shift Models need to figure Margot out , that should take days , but any trend that develops is key

Gfs was closer at 0z than earlier in the day , just need it to 72-W before the turn

U got a live one @ electric blue?

We goin to 175-180 over nite ?

Are you trying to get in the water (ocean /lake)

Saw that ensemble member going basically up the Hudson River at 950Mb

Let’s see if ensembles have any ...outliers

I think the Most at risk (highest impact area) currently is by far Bermuda . Not that it’s likely , but it could easily adjust 150 miles East at day 6-7 and it could hit them as a large cat 3 . I could see major surge in Nova Scotia or So but I think most damage on a SE Canada hit would be surge related

I think One thing that Is Likely being over estimated is Lee’s winds when it tracks @ our latitude . It’s going to be a very mature hurricane early next week , and it’s going to go thru multiple ERC’s and expand into quite a large storm by mid next week . It’s pressure can be 960’s to 970’s and be a borderline Cat 1 cane after it travels (not super fast) but at moderate speed just past Bermuda’s latitude The Ocean fuel near Bermuda supportive of a strong cane has been upwelled by Franklin and Idalia. It may begin to revover a bit over the next 3 days but soon it will be upwelled again . One example is tropical storm Earl had 965 pressure as it passed a bit East of our latitude (70mph) winds . Unless of course models can speed up Lee’s forward speed between Bermuda General area And our latitude (also if it goes west of current track ) While it’s North of Puerto Rico this will peak probably Sunday’ish near a cat 5, and by Tuesday while sw of Bermuda NHC has this down to 130 as a slow moving large Cat 3. There are several examples of N Atlantic very large mature tropical systems of lower pressure (965-970 mb) but that are now large storms with max winds 60-70 knots . I think there is a good chance Lee could be one at 41N latitude The Surf is going to be massive , and the only way I see that not occurring to that degree if the future M storm tracks closer on models and opens up an escape by eroding Atlantic ridge faster (this is not currently modeled to do that nearly enough to cause an earlIer recurve (Over or SE of Bermuda ) that would minimize swell for NE

Those closed door school board Meetings must be good . Probably a few trying to save their butts , while the rest try to figure out what happened

Anyone following the story of the missing (unaccounted for) 14 million dollars in the Brockton school budget , now they are going to look at the 50 Million in Covid funds that was spent and find a paper trail for that . Seems like 7 members of the school board have to sign off to varying degrees on expenses . The mayor said there was a going to be a large upheaval in “school district leadership“. Looks slimy , audit incoming but my guess is there has to be many involved or very incompetent.

I bought wood to begin the boarding up process

I was thinking it would create a weakness NE of Lee that could see it escape earlier , otherwise models bury it’s NE of Bahamas for what seems like 4 days

My evacuation route stops in Newport

We excited

Gfs OP hit Nova Scotia . Not that Far East

Euro ens slower with more members that actually hit SNE hard days 10-14

Your best post of summer

Preps for dew drop post storm

If you can go by the “wall” in am that’s your best shot . It’s gonna fade as the storm is weakning and moving out of the swell window n . (X idalia) the jeffreys ledge bouy should be dropping by morning (Ndbc bouy 44098). It’s been 4 days of swell so far , that’s a long one for the area At 3pm there was some splash over the sea wall by the corner near downtown Hampton beaches. Next week by Tuesday *very large *swells are coming and Some will be surprised

Errr maybe for S coast or if you are adding every event and stapling their timeline together , but I mean most of this forum averages 50”+

Waxing up the boggie board . The wall at Hampton today was crankin a nearly overhead swell . Too big for Body surfing as it smashed into 2 feet of water on a sand bar on its second break