STILL N OF PIKE
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Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE
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I honestly think this keeps ticking more progressive and is probably in Cape Sable by early pm and surf will be muted in NH (like currently at jeffreys ledge bouy) as there is less and less of a slow NW capture . Most swells in NH from the SE get somewhat shadowed by upper outer cape and they need ESE angle
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Should be rockin at Hampton beach maybe some pm sun? And waves breaking well over the wall at 1pm high tide
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I’m interested to see the coastal flooding for this from the surge , I think it’s a wildcard to a degree , that is where I think any damage may surprise to the upside , literally on the beach . The circulation Is huge and If that backs in enough to get onshore winds to gale force with the giant wave action on top , that is really and has really been my area of excitement / concern / interest .
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The ensembles far too often flop around like a dead fish for a run , they certainly have many times when do a poor job of accurately showing any goalposts , but again that is why folks shouldn’t over react to one run but their were plenty of GEFS and EENS that hit Maine for about 4 days , and frankly this board doesn’t pay Maine much attention, that down mid coast and East section did a have a decent risk for days as well as outer cape , thou I’m not sure we have any posters from that area
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Can someone post the 18z euro ensembles for me (not the mean) And yes I know it’s not landfalling
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It costs a few bucks but have you thought of paying for the KURO , usually busts 5 f cold in winter and flip that bias in summer . It’s very usable .
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after the euro goes well East This statement is easier to make for Merrimack valley
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Euro caves to gfs . Tad faster last couple runs and sizeable 60 mile jump East . I noticed the trough at 12z Friday on the 12z run took longer to get out of Maine area then same time at the 0z run . Probably contributed
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The wife will frown upon that .
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Lots of anger and violence , hate to see it
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Not much
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We are at peak dopamine drip thanks to 18z euro . Still seems modest chance to me for now
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Good question . The latitude this backs in at would also be key . 18z euro would send houses floating into Atlantic on plum island and prolly Scituate. You don’t want to discount coastal flooding If a storm thus large actually backed in to about the E coast Of sne
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Also the Machine learning (A.I) models that were posted 3-4 days ago Tucked up toward Chatham
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Not quite Sandy But the amount of water this would move if it came Nw and landfalls Like some of those ensembles showed ..would be higher than many think and effect most of SE and E facing New England beaches due to that huge fetch and angle of approach
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Should have some big swells , should be a lot of 4-6 footers with the occasional (holy shiat) where did that monster set come from as the day goes on they build
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I’m @ misquamicut beach today and tomorrow , had some fun with a consistent waist high swell today with occasional head high sets (just bodysurfing ) . Remember folks no lifeguards @ beach so if you go in stay alert (nobody else is probably going in but me lol) and look for rip currents (they aren’t hard to identify ) in light wind conditions be heading to RI Friday and Hampton (NH) sat for the real big stuff
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Category Five Hurricane Lee
STILL N OF PIKE replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
It seems it’s stuck in a perpetual ERC because neither eye wall will take over or completely . Not sure what needs to happen but all I can say is whatever it injested Saturday am really Seems to have messed it up . It’s been under rocket fuel and can’t sort itself out -
This thing has been in an ERC for days . Hurricane models nailed that days ago . After it’s rapid strengthening Friday and then weakening Saturday , it’s never been able to get itself looking classic again. Maybe for a few hours late weekend . It’s been under jet fuel for days and can’t sort itself out . Can anyone explain meteorologically why it hasn’t been able to complete its ERC and why the inner eye wall won’t just give up .
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I’m mostly still watching this to see low position for Saturday and if this slows and tickles NW in SNE swell window I would put the odds of any cape cod landfall at. Maybe 10% and Maine maybe 15% it’s ticked faster And East in last day and and the further north the low gets before it sort of stalls / ticks NW is not ideal for a monster E /ESE swell I was hoping for @Hampton Saturday . It will still be very big but not magical lol
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Ya . Based on the Tomer tweet from earlier that I linked you could see early on that Manitoba shortwave was coming in amped (which was a factor that could enhance the ridging behind the first trough . If that stout shortwave can be a consistent feature there may remain a chance But then we would likely need a slower storm motion North to see it get a real close call
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Ya the second trough Is def better but Lee seems to have sped up on its time (when it passes Bermuda latitude) so if it wasn’t for second trough this would have been further East . The faster latitude gain after the north turn really evened out the one positive i saw earlier in run . looks a tad west of 18z still
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My guess is 0z comes west looking at hr 72 that was based on second trough looking clearly deeper Which should cause more ridging ahead , only thing is first trough is about 3 hrs slower to head out
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How many hours has it been since that began
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Not sure If this was posted but it’s a great tweet
