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Everything posted by Matthew70
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
We get about another 150 mile push south with the colder air. ALL of TN will be in a sweet spot. One can hope for ALL of us.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The CMC is it really ever right? Seems it’s the Hail Mary of models to me. Lol. Kinda like the Icon. Would be funny to see the DGEX clown maps these days. Those were always hilarious to see.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
You are correct in calling it an anafront. We have had a few of those in the past. Rare but happens occasionally.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Right now I see this being a mixed bag for much of the forum area. Hopefully not all out ice storm. As usual I40 is the battle zone. I do believe the colder air will be further south. Models struggle with it as we all know. Fun to be able to track & chat about.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’m sure they meant Plateau.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is for the Friday system correct? NWS OHX is saying maybe up to 1” with snow showers Friday night.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
That’s the one I am also talking about.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I could see this being a big surprise for much of the forum area. Now not saying it will be snow but ice could be the major issue. Having such cold air so close spells surprises many of the times for the mid south. If the LP is 150 miles more SE then look out. Either way we are going to get beneficial rains.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I believe the Friday system is not done trending SE. Arctic air always presses further south than models show.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I’d feel more comfortable if the GFS was not alone. Though ensembles do favor the GFS. Euro is one I like to have saying yes instead of no.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Does he not think the MJO will rule the pattern?- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
It’s fun to actually feel like we’re tracking. This is within 10 days. Pretty incredible.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The storm Friday is close to producing some frozen precip also. As long as this keeps moving forward. No more can kicking. Pretty amazing that it’s seemed like winter for the last few weeks. Cloudy & cold. Highs in the 40’s lows in 20’s.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I definitely don’t see that happening but dreaming is fun. History does produce the unthinkable sometimes. We are due in this area forum wide for history to say it’s time.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
We get that much snow forum wide & those temps. Yep I will say thank you winter. Now where is spring because that would shut down most of the state for several days. Snow days would be used up quickly for the schools.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I don’t expect those type of temps nor that much snow but history shows that extremes like this have happened here before. So anything is possible. Though if it’s going to be that cold. Then yes please snow that much to protect my new landscaping.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
If anything like the warmups so far that would be average highs.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Also if anything like last years. Landscaping killer.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hopefully we get snow on ground before that kinda cold. Otherwise just dry & cold. I’ll take a hard pass.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Still great trends.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I did see an interesting quote from a top meteorologist out of the NE. He said “that the low placements 3 days out are usually on average 150 miles off of where they will usually end up”.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
What is the ole saying? Everything always snaps back the other way like a rubber band to equal it all out.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I am thinking the warm up is not the warm up that we are accustomed to. If there is really much of a warm up. I also remember strong -NAO being a trump card in the past. Maybe my mind is remembering incorrectly. Also is there still a PV split or partial? That could definitely play in our favor or against us. Maybe this time it plays in our favor. Positive side is the cold is in Canada & very nearby now. Marginal temps are being pushed south. We are going to get moisture even if it’s rain or frozen. That’s a change from the dry pattern.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Maybe false hope but I feel the MJO forecast are wrong or it will be overridden by other factors. -NAO. PV split. Only time will tell.- 1,263 replies
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January Medium-Long Range Discussion
Matthew70 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Continued prayers for you & your wife & family.- 1,263 replies
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