Matthew70

I am one that believes tornadoes follow a pattern or a rotation (no pun intended) of going thru certain area/landscapes. Examples here in the midstate state. Hendersonville/Gallatin is the north path. Dickson/Nashville/Lebanon (I40 path) Lobeville/Columbia/Springhill path. Lewisburg/Murfreesboro/Manchester path Waynesboro/Lawrenburg/Ethridge path I believe it’s only a matter of time during this rotation that Murfreesboro & the south paths see a tornado of significance come through. I know sounds crazy & ridiculous.

From Bobby Boyd

Well this one might have the necessary ingredients. We’ve been lucky so far but we are entering the time of year where it’s much easier to have severe wx.

From MEG on Sunday:"Deterministic runs ofboth the GFS and ECMWF paint SBCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kgand 0-6 km bulk shear upwards of 55 kts in the aforementionedarea. This great thermodynamic environment will allow strong tosevere storms to produce damaging winds, large hail, and apossible tornado or two."

It’s really unbelievable what’s happening with this outbreak. I hope the cams are wrong about multiple waves of supercells tomorrow.

I believe it’s warranted. This system has a very high ceiling but also has potential bust. All the sources I’ve seen have said just that. Public will always have it’s typical can’t make happy no matter what. Many well educated & respected meteorologist are concerned. When Spann, Fred Gossage, and Andy say pay attention then it’s serious. They are not like Timmer who hypes every storm. Earlier I listened to the Nashville wx briefing. She was clear on its “boom” or “bust”. One thing really stood out to me what she said. “Being in an enhanced risk 3 days out is eye opening”. She made it clear that if the cap breaks tomorrow night then it’s going to be a rough 24 hours.

From Bobby Boyd.

If it sticks around. If it clears for a few hours. Then tighten your belt. It could get rough.

I saw where many are saying it’s the models having convective feedback. No idea if that is true & what it means.

Hey now no drawing a circle around my house! Tornadoes are not allowed!

As Spann says. “Nothing can compare to April 2011”. That’s a once every 30-40 years outbreak.

Do you think this is a west TN threat Friday night & an East TN threat Saturday afternoon? Skipping over middle?

Agree. I believe the mid state is going to see a lot of rain & thunderstorms but nothing more than that. Seems Nashville has its every few years long track tornado. Other than that no red letter day. The storm shield is stout.

I could see the SPC expanding the 30% at this time. I am afraid moisture return is going to be much more expansive.

Hopefully my daughter soccer showcase gets canceled or moved from Jackson MS to AL (not that it’s any better) but MS is a magnet for tornadoes. HARD PASS!

Interesting. American models are now saying threat is much lower. Will Euro models join the American models in that camp. Not sure why wx offices including SPC are in such a hurry to post graphs like this. If it was a winter storm they would wait till the last min.

Agree. I really don’t pay attention to Timmer. He pumps every storm up I feel like.

I would but not sure if allowed to cross posting. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Over on talkweather. Andy left a reply over on Tennesseewx also.

When Andy & Fred post that they are concerned about this upcoming storm. It definitely makes me pause. They don’t hype like Reed.

Ugh. Tornadoes & wind damage I can do wo.

Hoping the weekend storm system is just a rain maker. When Fred & Andy are concerned. That’s an eye opener. Yes much will change in details but this system could be large in the areas it affects.

Row row row your boat. Fly a kite of the boat. I don’t remember so many wind events in a row. Good grief. Seems that map looks familiar from not too long ago.

This is the second time we have had wind that is definitely eye opening in the last month here. Neighbor lost 2 large trees last time. We have heard some loud thumps behind us in the woods. I’d expect there to be some trees down around here tomorrow when daylight breaks. Stay safe everyone!

Not surprised at the signal of MJO saying cold spring being in 2/3. Last few springs have been cold. I’m feeling the EPO changing is going to take us back to the 60’s/70’s type winters. I could be totally wrong but this was the coldest winter in America in a long time.