Matthew70

1 hour ago, *Flash* said:

Lots of people cliff-jumping over in Southernwx this week. I'm guessing things are looking a tad brighter for us in TN/KY as opposed to NC/SE/GA?

Key word there is SouthernWx. 
 

This forum is very chill & informative.  You don’t see the bipolar here. Yes disappointment & ups & downs are normal in following wx.  I have enjoyed these warmer days.  
A question for everyone.  I have some bushes that look dead after that hard freeze & 0 temps we had. Will they come back or could it have killed them?  My neighbor also asked me the same question. Even the hollies took a beating.   

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z EPS has finally caved to the GEFS - lock, stock, and barrel.  A great look d10+.

Funny I was just reading BAMWX & they are like nope going to be a warm January.  No winter it appears they say. 

9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Was a quiet year

I gotta admit I’m not disappointed.  The one that hit Nashville to Mt.Juliet to Lebanon to Cookeville in my opinion should cover the next 10 years. Then the one that hit NW TN to KY should cover them for the next 10 years. Wx seems to be doing the opposite of what analogs are saying these days.  

I can say I am happy for the warmer wx.  60’s will be short sleeves for sure.  54 & Sunny on Wednesday will feel great.  63 & Sunny on Sunday fabulous.  Actually might feel hot after this cold we just had.  With daughter soccer starting up especially first of February.  I will take the warmer wx.  We have a showcase tournament in Gatlinburg first weekend of February.  It is on turf so no cancellations. Please at least let it be sunny this year. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Suppression.  Northwest jog.  Cold/dry pattern.  Wet/rainy pattern.  Warm nose.  Down slope.  Kick the can.  Best accums are always outlier runs.  MJO.  IO convection.  Convection in the Gulf.  Model loses the storm:  OTS.  Cold gets stuck on the Plateau.  Low in the Lakes.....

 

Don’t forget the sun angle & ground is to warm! 

Merry Christmas to everyone & their families!  

Any warmth in January has me worried it stays warm & brings severe wx.  Though this cold has been really interesting to experience, that’s enough of this extreme cold for me. 

Jags should win easily over the Titans.  Jags will be good for several years.  Titans time to clean house completely & start over.  This includes all the coaching staff & players.  What a dumpster fire. 

1 minute ago, matt9697 said:

Evidently yea; makes no sense to me I am sure all of that stuff was on all night long. Now, I can see it especially for the stadium, to turn it on around now for the game but come on, really. 

One would think during times like these.  The game would be canceled if the grid is strained.  Now think tonight how it will be further strained due to the cooking & whatever else has to happen at the game.  All those suites having to be heated even warmer.  It’s just a pile of poop. 

20 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Rollings blackouts started again,we just had ours

 

https://map.datacapable.com/i/nes/

Let’s make sure to keep that stadium lit up. 

11 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Yea all the while we had this overnight - wonder how much juice these were sucking up??

Exactly.  So a bar & NFL game is more important than heating peoples homes. 

16 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Rollings blackouts started again,we just had ours

 

https://map.datacapable.com/i/nes/

Same here in Smyrna.  30 min. exactly.

It makes no sense with the technology we have in todays times.  What makes me mad is you have downtown bars & Titans stadium lit up all night.  Those are not necessities. Is an NFL game more important than senior citizens in their houses? Guaranteed the TVA ceo who got a $7 million salary did not do wo.  

22 minutes ago, Jeff Co Vol said:

Smartway cam at I-40/24 junction (213.2 mile marker) is better than watching TV. Solid sheet of ice. Cars bumping other cars and continuing to motor down the highway. I watched an 18 wheeler push several cars out of his way and keep on trucking.

People are out of vehicles walking around on the interstate, pushing cars, etc. 

It’s some crazy stuff. I really feel sorry for those folks. 

Salt does not work at these temps.  4x4 does not work on ice.  Honestly it was crazy for people to be out in these conditions.  It’s dangerous. 

Definitely going to be warm it appears for New Year’s. The TWC yeah I know has here at 66 & 60’s most of that week. IF it stays that way for a couple weeks then the fescue will awaken.  I just had to mow my yard this week.  That should stop at least temporarily after this Christmas weekend. 

1 hour ago, Jed33 said:

Use caution because it is the CMC, it did look ever so slightly better for the pre-Christmas storm, but look at Tues! That is how you get a clipper to hook up with the Gulf of Mexico, spawn a low pressure, and make a powerful winter storm!

That system is strong enough to bring some warm nose issues up into the eastern valley though, more of a snow to sleet/rain mix and back to light snow at the end. Middle and West TN, North MS and AL fare better than east TN but East TN does ok with it

Sadly it’s the CMC.  I don’t remember it ever being right. 

5 hours ago, John1122 said:

Every model just struggles any time they show snow here. At one point the Euro had us with blizzard conditions but the ICON of all things started showing the cutter first. 

 

However, suppressed, dry or rain storms. A+ on all model verification. 

This is so true!  
If it’s going to be dry. 99% correct 10 days out. 

If it’s going to rain.  99% correct 10 days out.

If it’s going to be HOT.  110% correct 2 weeks out! 

Now for cold & snow.  One has to go outside wear flip flops & a speedo & look for a rock if can find one. Then you will know if it is cold & snowy. 

6 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

The LP is in Illinois on this run. It's going to be in Nebraska at this rate. lol

I’m good with that lol.  Maybe makes this dry arctic air retreat quicker.  

So looks like 3 days below freezing then by NY near 60.  That is with rain of course. Hopefully we don’t have flooding & severe wx in January.  It would not be the first January to have those. What once looked promising for a few weeks of winter is fading quickly.  Crazy how quickly things change.  

Maybe this front will not make it here. I know it will but it would not hurt my feelings if this Arctic air would stay north of us.  Dry & cold I’m not interested in.  

4 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Hate to be berenger of bad news, but If we don't get a system by end of the week, at minimum we got until mid January before pattern becomes more favorable for winter weather. I'm hearing too extended EAMT event is going to happen and flood the US with warm air. 

I say bring it. Cold & dry especially this cold.  I will take a hard pass.  I’m already thinking about in 10 days we’re back to the 50’s.  With sunshine that will be nice. 

The older I get the more I feel a move to FL is what I need to do.  This type of cold & no snow is just brutal.  I admit I’m looking forward to this cold spell being over. Those 50’s will be nice especially if it’s sunny.  

2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

I mean the 18z gfs is still a substantial hit. Maybe we can see euro trend toward a snowier solution. 
 

I'll admit the gfs scenario does seem a bit odd. Possible. But not sure I've seen anything quite like it before.

It’s falling in line with the Euro.  Only difference is the precip.  Euro has a known bias of being too dry.  We shall see.  

Dry & cold just sucks.  No other way to put it.  Especially when it’s going to be this cold.  Give me warmth over dry & cold. 

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

Overall, I’m encouraged by what we are seeing in December.  Popping a PNA and watching a beautiful block form leads me to believe we will have our chances this year………….aside from whatever we can try to find (snow wise) from the 22-27th.  
 

It’s early on and I guess I’m just happy to not be staring at 70s for Christmas.  Although I do admit as I get older, warmer weather bothers me less and less.  lol

Same here. Older I get the less tolerance for cold I have. If it turns out dry & this kinda cold.  My patience will be tested. I will definitely be saying come on spring .  

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Having the ICON climb on board gets me back to 55/45 it is going to happen as the GFS has it.  I think the Euro is playing into some old biases.  @Holston_River_Rambler, what are you doing up so early?  As for me, we had a carbon monoxide detector battery go bad.  The periodic beep was driving us crazy.  LOL.  We have been wondering through the house for about fifteen minutes trying to find which detector was bad.  As any good wx hobby person would do, I sat down and looked at modeling instead of going back to bed.

I always wonder why those cotton pickin things go off at night only. Mine always do it in middle of night.