Matthew70

2 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Not looking good for failure,not right now anyways

Cold spring incoming 

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The MJO(which has been stalled in 3....and is still stalled in 3) is set to rapidly travers the warm phases.  It then could possibly be in phase 8 as soon as the 19th if the Euro is correct or a week later if the GEFS/CFS is correct.  Not sure I buy the slow traverse, but that is what is being portrayed this morning.   Meanwhile, the mid-month warm-up still appears on tap w/ cold fronts slicing through the warm air mass at regular intervals.  

Meaning somewhere from gulf coast to here could be in for severe wx episodes.  

37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Well, we have something else to track.... @Daniel Boone, you know if they ever decide to do something about this, it is coming down in somebody's front yard in this forum.  ORNL, BAE, and NFS in that flight path.

https://fox59.com/news/national-world/possible-chinese-balloon-tracker-where-is-it-headed-next/

 

In Gatlinburg.  Should get a clear shot of it. 

Rain here in Smyrna.  

27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba.

Happy hour GFS must be taking advantage of the 2 for the price of 1 drinks. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think spring will be ok.  Cosgrove seems to think we have that last cold shot, and then make a break for spring.  The transition to Nino is what give me pause(usually spring is late w those).  About the time we are all tired of rain, cold weather....Nino doubles down!  LOL.  Hope the soccer is going well!

Thanks Carver.  Well soccer starts big this coming weekend in Gatlinburg with it being a college showcase. Supposed to be 52-54 Sunny both days!  Can not ask for better soccer wx. Though the early game on Sat. morning @ 7:30 will be quiet chilly! We have our portable heater ready & battery operated hand warmers. These next 2 years are big for my daughter as starting in July college coaches can start contacting here. She has had some look at her recruiting page.  She wants to play college at a smaller school. Though if Alabama  offered her she would say YES!  Lol.  I know I’m going to get stoned for saying that!  As for a warmer spring I say bring it!  I will start building my ark for next Nino winter like you advised in your earlier post! Lol! I think in 5-6 months I can have it done! 

It appears the freezing line has pushed as far east & south as it going to. I65 west to NW seems to be the line.  Temp remains steady here at 33. Schools should have waited to close.  I guess they wanted to use a snow day since they have used none of the 12 they are allowed.  I wish they would take a week of snow days & add to fall break here.  Make it a 2 week fall break.  They don’t need many some days anymore. 

Temp here in Smyrna went up 1-2 degrees.  Might escape wo any ice issues. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

I would give it about a 75% of doing a full rotation through the warm phases at relatively low amplitude and be back in the cold phases by the last week of the month.  Some plots take it into 4 and then it goes into the COD.  But given the actual precip plumes in Indonesia....the warm phase rotation looks likely.  Feb10-24 for that roughly.

Yikes.  That’s not good.  Meaning cold spring with cold rains.  We need to break this cycle of cold springs. 

18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

CMC has really been trying to create a storm at 240 hrs on some of its recent runs. Alas it is always at hr 240. But it has been consistent. 

The CMC really won the model wars on the current temps.  Whatever the CMC is showing temp wise should be taken pretty seriously.  GFS was a close second.  Euro is completely lost on cold air. Question I have is what is the latest on the MJO?  Does it cycle back to cold phases or stay in warm phases?

They can have that ice & sleet. I will take my cold rain & be happy.  

Got to 33 here in Smyrna. This is more of a nuisance event. Thankfully.  After all the damage to shrubs from the Christmas cold. I do not won’t any part of trees being damaged by ice. Whatever happens is short lived & by this weekend is long gone. Going to be very nice temp wise coming up. I expect to be mowing my yard in a couple weeks. Buttercups will be blooming by mid February is my guess. They already are coming up. If we had not had that Christmas cold this would be a very uneventful winter so far. 

This weekend & next week temp wise looks very pleasant.  The warmup is real no doubt. 

With the way the temps are showing next week & after. I would say February could be active south of TN. 

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z short range modeling is now very consistent (and still going a tic southward) with several waves of sleet, ice, snow and ZR for middle and west TN.  

Edit:  slight tic northward for the RGEM and NAM

You said a last minute jog North would happen. I bet when it gets even closer there will be hardly any frozen in TN. Maybe very far NW corner.  

For me once soccer goes full swing I’m ready for spring.  The way the butter cups & grass is greening up.  I would say winter is pretty much done. Especially with the warmer temps coming next week. 60’s+. Spring will be showing signs all over. 

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Long range looks pretty crappy,right now.Models seem to want to build the Upper level ridge into South Korea/Japan into the 2nd week of Feb,this could very well build the Mid Level ridge(SER) the middle of Feb, maybe it will change but as we head into mid Feb that's not a cold look.

With soccer going full swing starting this weekend.  I would take a warm spring. I will definitely be mowing my yard the next couple weeks.  Green & growing. 

Tomorrow near 60 & Sunny then week after mid 50’s to 60.  Yeah not gonna complain.  Better than 33 & rain. 

I will take the rain over ice any day.  We are heading to Gatlinburg for a soccer showcase.  I’m just fine with some rain.  Looks now it will be chilly but dry.  That sounds great! 

Thing is warmth almost always verifies on models. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nice slider at 96hour on the 12z GFS.

Cliff hanger lol

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Canadian is a massive ice storm for West and Central TN. Unfortunately not any snow. 

I will take a HARD PASS on any ice!  The extreme cold temps already damaged many of the evergreens & shrubs.  Sheesh last thing we all need is trees to be damaged also. 

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Good luck to the overnight crew! 

Let’s start reeling this in.  It is less than 7 days. 

Ice ice baby. 

26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves.  12z is on the left and 0z is on the right.  

 

Is it me or does  that scream ice?