Matthew70

On 3/8/2023 at 7:47 AM, PowellVolz said:

Thought I would drop this off here. It’s a “season preview” and prediction from a YouTube Met that I personally believe does an excellent job on his site. The cliff notes are he looked and came up with his analogs that closely match the pattern we are in, or going into to. These are his analog years…. Closest years to this year are 1976 and 2002. Next is 2018 and 2009 and last is 2012 and 1965. All of these years except for 1965 basically played out the same. A very active end of March into April for Dixie and then everything moved more towards tornado alley for May into June. All of these years had well above average tornadoes but these years did not have many significant tornadoes except for 1965. 1965 was a weird analog year because it lined up well with our setup and predicted pattern going forward but it was overly active with several significant tornado outbreaks and several significant tornadoes. Oddly enough that MTn and ETn was very active in 1965. Here’s the video, it’s about an hour long.
 

 

 

 

 

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It will be interesting how spring plays out.  To me it seems we are in a cooling trend the last few years. Though data says we’re warming to me it seems to be going the opposite. I believe severe wx will be very quiet again this spring. I just believe springs are just getting cooler.  I could be totally wrong & hope that I’m not because I don’t care for tornadoes.  

The wx & patterns sure seem to be all out of whack.  Added the volcanoes & earthquakes strange times to be living in.  The west has had a winter for the ages. Though the positive is the reservoirs are full out there now.  Plus it appears there will be snow on the ground when winter begins later this year out there.  I read where the Sierras have over 700”.  That’s unbelievable.  

Looking at my forecast which is very risky & highly unlikely to be correct.  It looks like around a week of cooler to 1-2 days cold before back to 60’s.  

What does the high amp translate to?

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

45-50 for highs w/ the sun shining is no problem.  It is those evening/night soccer games, baseball games, and track meets which are gonna be dicey, especially if raining as you note.  Deterministic and ensembles are cold this morning.  Those nice, deep purple colors for temperature departures are back - and well inside of day 10.  I will enjoy the cold snap when it arrives.  But trust me, if it is blunted, I won't be complaining.  This weekend should be seasonal.  Next week, modeling drops the hammer.  Again, for me, the question isn't really if the cold arrives...it is the duration and intensity of the cold.  FWIW, temps IMBY look particularly cold for Tuesday-Friday of next week.  Modeling has been focusing on those dates for weeks.  It would not surprise me to see lows in the upper teens(if clear and not windy) at some point w/ highs in the upper 30s/low 40s.  That is going to be a shock to the system.  

Thanks for all your great info.   Yep no doubt shock to the system it will be.  Ugh.  These warm days & the  blooming have made me so ready for spring.  Crazy how it seems cool/cold springs are now common here in TN. 

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Whatever is 5-12F BN around the 15th.   I think WJHL warned everyone this AM about the return of much colder temps.

Think the average high this time year is 56-59.  So would mean 45-50 temps.  Will be interesting to see how cold it gets.  Being soccer season I expect cold & wet. 

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies, which I thought were derived from a warm run, basically maintain the upcoming blocking pattern from March10-April10....and I HOPE it is warm from the on!!!!!!!!

Locals & long range forecasts I have looked at have it upper 50’s to low 60’s throughout the middle of the month. The lowest low is 34.  Who will be right.  

This was shared on another forum by a very good poster.  Definitely interesting!  

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

As of right now the lowest daytime temp I see is 52. 31 the lowest nighttime temp. That is about average for March so either the forecast temps  is wrong or the pics above are wrong. Will be interesting to see what actually happens. 6 days away is a long time in todays times with these models. 

That was some amazing wind but not what I was expecting.  Still was interesting to experience those type of gusts.  As for severe it was  the same story that has happened this winter.  A dud. Maybe this needs to be in the discussion of wx thread but it seems the more technology in models & forecasting these days has had the opposite effects.  It seems models are lost most of the time &  and forecast could not hit the side of a barn with a shotgun anymore. Just seems the wx is doing the opposite of what it used to do.  Maybe it’s just me but like today the hype only made more people desensitized to the SPC & outlooks. My wife works for the schools & it’s not pretty the backlash. 

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Van Gough had a time when he painted only in blue.  In honor of @tnweathernut, I call this "Spring Before Winter."

 

I hope I bought enough propane to make it through all the soccer games of March. 

With this first line that is warned.  I have seen much much more intense winds.  I don’t see any reason to have that storm warned.

It appears for middle TN the high winds outside the storms is going to be the main issue.  SPC is having a tough year so far.  

I hope he’s wrong 

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Try this one

 

https://www.windy.com/-Show---add-more-layers/overlays?gust,2023030215,36.473,-89.253,5,m:eNpadfB

My eyes can not bulge anymore!  That’s a few hours of 55+ mph winds.  Good gosh.  This could be bad. 

Schools closing in mid state.  Rutherford out.

14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

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Thank you!  That’s pretty high values. 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

NAM STP tomorrow afternoon




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It’s the significant tornado parameter value.  Higher it is the higher chances of an EF2. 

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

NAM STP tomorrow afternoon




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Do you have the one for Nashville proper?

Highwind warnings are now in effect for tomorrow

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Confirmed tornado this morning around 2am near Chattanooga. That’s the 6th tornado that we know of for the first 60 days of the year in Tennessee.


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My son is at UTC. They got no warning.

I’m sure glad I bought extra propane tanks for our my buddy propane heater for soccer. Going to need them. 

Well mid state is now in enhanced.  Damaging winds the main threat.  Which looks likely.  Sigh.  

Tomorrow the winds alone will be quite crazy.  55+ gusts with some 75+ gusts some data is showing.  That will bring down some trees.  Especially as soft as the ground has become.  Glad the severe wx so far has not panned out.  Seems TN has a cap on severe wx lately. Kinda like the snow cap especially for east TN.  Weird wx these days. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Increasing confidence that we will see temps 10-20F BN at some point between March 10-25.  Operational models are just now picking up on this around d10. Ensembles have had it for 3-4 weeks(long range ensembles that is).  This will be pretty crazy if we reel this in from that far out.

Sadly there goes many blooms & early vegetation.  Heck the freeze in December did a number.  A freeze now will finish them off.