Matthew70

One guarantee is it will be cold enough in spring for cold rains.  Seems winter arrives in late February through April anymore. 

2 hours ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Thank you guys very much! It's been a crazy ride for sure. There were a couple of positives from it. I got to skip a whole month of summer, closer to fall and winter! And I lost 90 lbs, which resolved my diabetes. I've gained about 40 lbs back from muscle and a better appetite. I don't recommend my signature weight loss program though lol

I lost 34#.  Un unfortunately I became a type 1 diabetic from my ordeal.  Apparently 80% of severe cases like mine this happens.  Go figure.  Though will say cutting out the breads/carbs/sugars has made a huge difference on my life.  I was an avid runner before but can no longer run.  So it was a trade off. 

3 hours ago, BuCoVaWx said:

I've been meaning to make a post on this topic for awhile, but never got around to it. It will probably be a long read, just a warning lol. Back in late May I started getting what I felt like was a cold. I had a rattling feeling deep in my lungs when I would breathe in deep. I went to the local urgent care on a Monday. I asked for blood work or an X-ray. They thought it was just a sinus infection and wrote out antibiotics. I wasn't satisfied with that, so the next day I went to the ER. It was very busy and the doctor pretty much brushed it off. They too thought it was a sinus infection,no blood work or X-ray, even though I had asked a couple of times. On the next day which was Wednesday, I went to my regular Doctor. She was out for the day so I saw the nurse practitioner. Same story as before, sinus infection. They gave me a steroid shot and an antibiotic shot. So I just accepted that after seeing three different medical professionals, I would just take the antibiotics and everything would clear up.  

Thursday night I started getting severe pains in my upper and right side abdomen. I didn't think much about it. The next day the pain had subsided for the most part during the day. Later that day, the pains hit me even harder than before, so I decided to go back to the ER. This time they did an X-ray and blood work. The nurse came in and said the blood test had shown signs of pancreatitis. After waiting another hour or so the Dr finally came to talk to me. It was the same Dr from the days before. He apologized when he came in. He said you are a very sick young man. I had pancreatitis and pneumonia. They had also spotted a large mass on my upper left lung. He had told me that they needed to send me out to a better facility. They tried to transport me to Johnson City, but there were no beds available. I ended up going to Pikeville Medical Center.

By the time I am transported by ambulance it's around 2am. They start me on antibiotics for my pneumonia. By the next day the pancreatitis had cleared up. I didn't even have pain from it anymore. As a few days go by the pneumonia slowly starts getting worse. The Drs have me on broad spectrum antibiotics at this point. After being hospitalized for over a week, nothing had changed. Of course I start asking questions and ask if it could be a different form of pneumonia given the antibiotics aren't working. They say of course there could be a possibility but the chances are pretty rare, most of the time it's bacterial. A day after I ask these questions they decide to do a bronchoscopy. They do the procedure but will take a few days to get results. The night of the operation, I noticed it's getting harder for me to catch my breath. They crank the oxygen up as high as it goes in the hospital room. 

The next day they do an X-ray and the mass is growing. They start talking about the possibility of doing a biopsy. Things started spiraling downhill pretty fast after the X-ray. The Dr comes in and says they are going to move me to ICU, but won't do life support at first. No one had mentioned anything about things being to that severity so my family and I are all in shock and worried. We start asking questions trying to figure out why they were taking me to ICU. The Dr really didn't give much of an explanation. I definitely noticed my breathing was getting much worse. By the time they took me to ICU, I was on a very large amount of oxygen. Eventually putting me on a CPAP machine. That night I start running a fever. It was around 102 to 104. They weren't able to keep it as low as they wanted. The next day they put me on a ventilator and decided at this point it's best to put me in a medically induced coma on life support to take some of the pressure off of my lungs to heal. They put me to sleep. That was on June 6th. I wake up on July 4th, completely out of it. Had no idea where I was or what was going on. My mother and fiance were by my side, smiling, crying and hugging each other. I try to talk, but nothing is happening. My mother asks if I know where I am. I shook my head no. I was at UK hospital in Lexington KY. 

They had made the decision to fly me out to Lexington on June 9th. My fever was out of control, it was 107.5 when I arrived at UK. Before I left Pikeville they had found that the pneumonia was fungal. They were treating me for the wrong fungus. They had diagnosed me with Histoplasmosis. UK had determined that I had a fungal infection called Blastomycosis. Several days after arriving at UK, they put me on ECMO. The best way I can describe it is sort of like blood dialysis. It filters all of the blood to 100% oxygenation, giving the lungs a chance to rest and hopefully heal. ECMO is a last resort. The procedure itself has only 50% survival rate. I had went into A fib during ECMO, so I had to be laid prone for either 16 hours on stomach and 8 on back, or vice versa. My survival chance between ECMO and Blastomycosis was at 30%. I was on it for 2 weeks, and gradually started to heal. By the time I woke up, I couldn't move anything. I had Critical Illness myopathy. I was still on the ventilator and had a trach in as well. After weaning me off the hard medicines I started slowly realizing the severity of my situation. I stay in ICU until August 1st. Then I get moved 2 doors down which is out of ICU. 

Because of the ECMO, I had a fistula where the cannula was inserted in my right groin. I had surgery August 4th to correct the fistula and a pseudo aneurysm. The surgery site gets infected. I start running a fever again, so they do a washout on August 21st. After that, there is still signs of infection so they do a second washout on the 25th. 3 surgeries in 3 weeks! They put a wound vac in to help heal the site. They found the infection to be CRE. It's an infection that targets weaker immune systems in hospitals. The doctor informed me it is a very serious infection that can lead to heart problems, brain infections and meningitis. At this point I'm just ready to go home. They put me on a 6 week antibiotic. One of the strongest made. 3 times a day, each bag cost around $600. Very powerful stuff. Of course with it being so powerful, it has a slew of side effects and is very dangerous itself. 

The whole time I'm in UK, they work with me in physical therapy. It wasn't much at all but enough to get me a bit more independent. My insurance wouldn't accept me into any acute rehab facilities. Thankfully the wonderful people at UK set me up with a scholarship at Cardinal Hill rehab hospital in Lexington. I was there for a little over 2 weeks. I finally got to come home on October 13th. I'm doing physical and occupational therapy 3 times a week. I'm in a wheelchair for now, can walk short distances on a walker. I'm slowly regaining my strength, but still have a long road ahead. 

One thing I have learned from this experience is all of the small things I have taken for granted. In the snap of a finger everything can change.

The doctors think I contracted blastomycosis from black mold spores. I was renovating my bedroom and the wall below the air conditioner in my room was starting to rot. I had only discovered it a couple of weeks before I got sick. Blastomycosis affects 1 in 100,000 people and can get it from soil, rotting wood and trees. I had diabetes prior to contracting blastomycosis, so it made everything much worse. 

Thank you all for reading this. I just wanted to share my story. So if I don't get to share any snow photos this year, that's the reason. I still have windows, so if we get a good storm, I'll definitely share those!

I am very sorry you went through all you did but am thankful you survived & are healing.  I know you may have heard this but it sounds like you had Covid pneumonia like me.  Reading your post brings back the nightmares of being on ICU.  Though now we have that mystery pneumonia in China spreading that is resistant to many antibiotics.  My mom had an unknown pneumonia many years ago.  They had to remove half her lung to save her.  To this day they never could tell what kind of pneumonia it was. A friend on our travel soccer team she was on ECMO also for 3 months. She had Covid pneumonia.  It’s truly an amazing machine. Really glad you reached out.  May you continue to get well & hopefully heal back to 100%.  I have healed from my covid pneumonia but my lungs only function half & will never be more. Prayers & thoughts. 

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That cutter is likely gonna be strong.  It probably isn't wrong unfortunately.  Good find.

That was the KY tornadoes right?

I would not mind a normal temp & dry first weekend of December.  My daughter has a showcase soccer tournament in Memphis that weekend.  After that let it snow!

5 hours ago, Knoxtron said:

Thanks Carver! You are awesome for all of your updates and amazing analysis, thank you for all you do!

 

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

 

Little Euro Fun to share to make this a relevant post lol

Happy Thanksgiving to ALL!

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!  Hope it’s a great day for ALL!

On 11/19/2023 at 8:51 PM, PowellVolz said:

We could use your prayers… my wife was diagnosed with breast cancer this week. Do not have all the info just yet but as of now the outlook is positive. Feel terrible for her. She just completely recovered from the brain tumor she had removed 2 years ago. God has been there and he’s not leaving us. Keep us in your prayers. Thanks guys!!!!


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Praying  for strength & healing & comfort for her & you all. 

A large fire has broken out in Marion county.  A resort has been evacuated along with several homes in the area.  Luckily this should be short lived with rain coming in.  Expecting about an inch of rain. 

Not liking the drier runs as we get closer.  We need some soaking rains.  Droughts always seem to make their own wx.  Meaning more drought. Even with an 1” of rain in a couple days we are back to where we are now.  

My neighbor is a volunteer for the forestry fire fighting.  He has been in Rhea county last 2 days fighting one there.  Said lost a few houses.  He said that they are on standby with watchers stationed on the plateau Sunday-Tuesday. Said possible mountain gravity waves there. Similar to what happened in Gatlinburg. He said the plateau is the highest concern at the moment. He said it would take a lot of rainfall to help the situation.  Hopefully people will not attempt any fires this weekend into next week.  Even frying turkeys could be dangerous. 

Well the rain is not going to happen.  Sheesh.  Low humidity & winds are going to drive any fires that get going. This is turning into worse than when Gatlinburg was hit it seems. 

Finally some good rain here this evening & tonight.  I think we could approach an inch when all is said & done.  I got my yard mowed & leaves up before it started. 

I received word a 3rd large fire has broke out near AL/TN line.

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@nrgjeff that is the only post your are allowed to make for November.  LOL 

Maybe we can allow one more if Kansas wins another big game. 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, I am definitely concerned.  I don't discuss it much here as I don't want someone with bad intentions reading my thoughts on the drought.  I know you are careful as well.   I worry that those types of folks monitor wx forums and the NWS red flag warning alerts.  The good thing is the amount of rainfall prior to September (your area is a perplexing exception).  

Sad anyone would read these forums & want to do bad things. Hopefully rain comes soon. 

My nephew says it looks like there’s a big fire on the mountain near South Pittsburgh.  Can anyone confirm?

Rain would be appreciated though it being dry has made blowing leaves easy so far.  My new grass is up & doing great with using my own water.  Water bill going to be high unfortunately.

As for winter. The longer it takes to get cold means the lesser time winter has to stay around. Kinda like the days getting shorter. A couple more months & then the days start getting longer again. Give me about 6 weeks of snow & cold & I will call it a winter. Though unfortunately we don’t even get that anymore.  If we get 1-2 weeks it’s a miracle. 
 

The fall colors sure are beautiful! 

Most of the rain for mid TN dried up.  South of 40 pretty much nada.  My new grass is coming up but that is  because of me watering.  Next 10 days looks like more of the same.  Nice temps but DRY!  Hoping this does not mean fire season is going to be rough.  The leaves are coming down quickly now especially with the wind. 

10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Accuweather discussion which seems reasonable...

https://snowbrains.com/accuweather-releases-23-24-winter-forecast-el-nino-could-bring-a-repeat-of-last-winter-to-the-west/?fbclid=IwAR3YZ6GRmfQ7wjhsI0gkYHMzBNy2C-35Su5_MtFWRgEcTbFz-EJoIf8deu8

 

To me seems also to f conflicting predictions.  Especially for middle TN.  One say milder with less snow.  Other says 125% average snow.  Gotta love nature.  She’s full of surprises. 

On 9/29/2023 at 12:18 PM, nrgjeff said:

It's probably more accurate than some long-range models. I'll allow the wooly worm!

I second this!  Better chance with nature predicting winter than throwing darts like we do with the LR models. 

Well one thing is looking likely.  Dry conditions will persist.  Yes some light rain to settle the dust but that’s about all.  The temps will be nearly perfect.  My grass seed will love the temps. Just going to have to water myself. 

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

IMHO, the total precip map(to date)above looks remarkably like Nino precip pattern maps, BUT displaced about 200-400 miles eastward.  I think I mentioned several months ago that modeling was signaling very dry weather for the middle and western portions of the forum...and that eastern areas should see more rain chance.  Right now, all of that is displaced eastward towards the EC.  The problem with drought is that it when it persists...it "calls" for more drought.  

The new CANSIPS is out, it looks to have sharply increasing precip.  Winter forecast is similar if slightly warmer...but looks fine.

The Euro Weeklies are bone dry for the forum area.  VERY worried about dry conditions right now.  Any wind event is big time trouble. 

Late winter, spring, and almost all of summer were nearly textbook El Nino precip patterns IMBY.  Lots of rain and cool weather.    I am not convinced of the Nina hangover for fall - it would be odd to have 4 months of El Nino(May through August) and have it revert back to a Nina hangover.  I am going to do some more digging.  My guess is that another driver is also in play in addition to SSTs.  Kicking around these ideas:  Texas heat dome nearly always pushes eastward...getting ready to transition to a much cooler pattern and the rains are about to return(this might be a blip for eastern areas)...this persists and the winter is colder than I originally though as sometimes seasonal modeling(which is dry) is picking up on colder temps....just a fluctuation that we cannot predict or even fully explain at this point.

The drought is definitely getting worse for a lot of the area.  With October being a usually exceptionally dry month. Add in the leaves falling & lower humidity spells concern & trouble. I am aerating & seeding my yard this week.  The temps will be absolutely perfect.  I will water the seed which means I can do it wo Mother Nature washing it away.  Still some rain showers would be nice.  I am watering the yard to soften it up.  We had about .50 this past week.  Settled the dust thankfully. Amazing how we went from wet to dry.  The temps & wx have been spectacular.  Watching my daughter play her soccer  games with the moon in the background the past week was beautiful. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR modeling has taken a decidedly warm turn since the colder solutions appeared last week.  Now, shoulder season modeling is likely not correct.   I still think we see 7-10 days of cold temps centered maybe week 2-3 of October.   At this point, nothing ridiculously warm is out there as seasonal norms are now dropping.

Regardless of temp maps, it is much cooler in the mornings.  Temps are +1.7 for September at TRI.  Precip is WAY below normal.  Only 0.79" for the month so far w/ some precip forecast to fall this week.   Only two days this month have had more than 0.10 of rainfall.  Drought is beginning to build in the Mississippi River drainage after several weeks(months in some places) of the mid-continent ridge in place.  Southern portions of our forum area are now seeing drought conditions.

One thing to note about precip patterns during fall.  Snow patterns during winter to gravitate towards places which had the most precip during fall - that has been my experience.   Dry wx patterns during fall can often portend to dry winters - but that would surprise me w/ the Nino pattern, especially for E TN.  

Saw this maybe in the MA forum....last time we had a falling QBO and Nino was maybe 14-15.  Somebody can check me on that.  I haven't verified that.

Sadly it’s has turned severely dry here in the midstate. With not much hope in the next 10 days.  I gave up on my yard. Not sure how this drought will affect the changing of leaves but I am seeing many trees with their leaves just dropping.  No colors at all. Such a great wet summer has crashed into a terribly dry fall. 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

LR range is a little more interesting today.....

 

 

Meaning?