Matthew70

https://www.wate.com/news/smoky-mountains/flint-gap-fire-in-the-smokies/
 

Burn ban now in effect for Rutherford county that I live in.  The leaves are coming down like snow.  Many are green with some yellow.  My yard is the worse I have ever seen it.  Completely dead.  Looking forward to the cooler days but if we don’t get rain it’s going to get ugly I’m afraid.  My neighbor is a forest fire fighter.  He said right now it would take 5-7” to end our drought.  Any rain would help but with the driest months coming up.  He said pay attention.  We live next to the woods. 

Snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountains for first time in August since 2003. 

Lower temps & lower humidity with these dry conditions spells trouble as we lose more leaves to the drought. I was in Gatlinburg this past weekend.  They are dry also. We need a week of rain.

Drought is making strong comeback 

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like one or two more 3-7 day warm spells and that might be it until October when we might (or might not) see the last gasp of heat.  There are some intermittent signals that fall could be chilly, but I am not quite ready to go there yet.  Climatology would support extended summer....but I have been fairly guarded coming into this fall and winter.  I tend to go with BN temps for mid-Nov to the last week of Dec, and then torch.  But I don't like the footing I am on right now.  If we don't have extended summer, it might be time to rethink winter.  We are about to hit shoulder season, and LR ext models go to total crap during that time.   But we could see some pretty wild swings this fall if those ext runs are even close to being correct.  I would not be shocked to see a pretty cold shot during September.  

I’m starting to not like this long dry spell we are in.  We are almost right back where we were before what rains we did get IMBY. The LR does not show much promise of soaking rains either. Plus climatology is we are approaching those drier months. Lower humidity & leaves already falling from the dryness is not a recipe I like. 

I must say this weekend the wx is going to be absolutely perfect for August standards.  Screen porch in the evenings will be my spot.  

Round 2 incoming later tonight.  Heads up! 

Heads up plateau east down to the Chattanooga.  Strong  line of storms heading your way.

Ended up with a big ole ZERO for rain last few days.  Ground is already drying out today.  Drought will commence here IMBY. Sigh. 

Unless something develops most of the  midstate west of the plateau will miss on the rains today. Was hoping to get more rain.  Smyrna has not cashed in like others have. 

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes, I remember that I knew someone who just went out there!  By a miracle, nobody was hit by any of those flying rocks.  The still photos are even wilder.  There was some big stuff in the air!!!!

Agree.  When you see the black & grey coming out of those into the sky.  You know it’s a serious eruption.  I believe we are going to see more volcanoes becoming active in America.  We are way past due for it to happen.  If Yellowstone was to go off then we all know that would be a very bad situation for America.  

Absolutely crazy that me and my family were there 13 days ago in that spot.

Yesterday was a frog strangler. Today the heaviest went around us.  Still got about .50.  The grass definitely greened up from the rain.  I was blowing leaves before the rain.  Unreal blowing leaves in July.  Hopefully we can get a lot more this week. Crossing fingers! 

Hardly any rain IMBY also.  South of 40 pretty much struck out.  My redbud is losing leaves rapidly now.  Many of the trees on the woods behind me are losing leaves.  My yard is gone.  Definitely will be overseeding in the fall if we can get rains to soften the ground for aeration.  It’s going to be fall here early.  A large brush fire broke out locally here Sunday.  It was put out thankfully.  Lower humidity is nice but increases fire danger the longer this drought goes on.  

Well, the trend continues.  The rain just does not materialize..  the drought is growing by the week.  I’m watering my trees, but they are definitely struggling and leaves are already falling.

On 7/7/2024 at 6:55 AM, Carvers Gap said:

Cool nights and warm days w/ low humidity for YNP.  You all may see some frost in West Yell this week.

As for E TN, two more weeks in the furnace, and then as Jeff noted earlier, a break appears on the horizon.  The new Cansips wants seasonal for August through December.  I still think we see endless summer, but will gladly eat some crow if wrong.  We need to break the drought ASAP or the return to seasonal is going to be very tough to attain in NE TN.  

The TS is going to create very hot temps early in the week.  My general rule of thumb with tropical systems is we don't want to be grazed by them(if we need the rain).  Why?  Sinking air on its periphery creates crazy hot temps - E TN is gonna likely roast without a last minute course change.  Downslope winds during summer are no bueno.  

 

Absolutely has been perfect wx here in Yellowstone & Tetons so far.  Now by Wednesday it’s going to be a furnace here also.  93-95 highs.  
I love this area!  

Let’s hope Beryl makes TN wet this week. I’m on my way to Yellowstone.  Would love to come back to green grass.

16 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I drove from Nashville to TRI on Monday.  The differences are stark...from green to crispy brown.  You can really tell the areas that missed on storms last week.  One could drive from green to charred grass in about 5-10 miles and then back to green....kind of like that from the Plateau all the way to TRI.  But drought has taken hold during June...I hope that reverses.  I don't really have any reason to think that we see a lot more precip...unless the tropics bail us out or that we can establish an afternoon thunderstorm regime.  Once drought is established, it can be very hard to break it without a tropical system.  

Sadly the last 2 chances of solid rain have went poof here.  A solid line of storms & rain looked certain to hit mid TN.  Nope it all fell apart.  Sigh.  

Definitely obvious the soil here in Johnson City is dry.  Amazing how brown it is compared to Nashville.  Here moving my son into his apt.  for pharmacy school.  Good to be back in the part of TN I grew up in.  Missed the mountains. 

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Our yard has had patches since May,its getting worse but at least today we are getting some thunderstorms with some nice  cells producing.So far to me this looks more of a east based NINA into winter,since Mid May the thermocline has warmed and not cooled around 55M,but that dont mean crap right now.Sure looks warm as we head towards the 4th,upper level ridge with a 597 parked above by the GFS,yippee

Yes thankfully we had a really good storm here today.  I’d say close to an 1” of rain.  Another solid chance of rain Wednesday.  If we can just string together some storms every 3-4 days then maybe it can keep at least some things green for awhile longer. 

It just does look good for my yard this summer.  I would have to spend a lot of money watering it to keep it somewhat healthy.  The heat & dryness I believe is not going to let up until maybe mid September.  At this point I think im going to focus on my shrubs.  They are new & those I don’t won’t to lose.  I will just have to have over seeding done in the fall.  My fear is we have a bad fire season.  Leaves will fall early if the heat & drought continues.  Long range paints July as brutal.  Ugh. 

On 6/13/2024 at 10:01 PM, Met1985 said:

It's literally in the 70s out there and then by Monday a foot plus over 6k feet....

My family & I head to the Grand Tetons(staying in Jackson Hole)  & Yellowstone (staying in west Yellowstone) July 6-13th.  My in-laws are out there now.  Snow still on ground in higher elevations.  

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Also, the GFS is all over the place on temps, mainly due to rain. But the western 2/3rds of the forum area have a lot or BN periods depicted over the next two weeks. The cpc extended maps are deep reds. The GFS has lots of blues and even purples and pinks over the South and Southeast. 

I will take rain every 2-3 days to keep the temps at bay.  I’d love for a wetter than normal summer.  Yes would make it humid but better than oppressive heat & dry.  

10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Wake me up when September comes.. Green Day is timeless.

This thread should probably be pinned. Drop the pin on the Spring thread and put it out of its misery, ha.

Still looks like we can avoid major heat for a good chunk of June. The more weeks we chop off the less miserable summer overall. 

I’m keeping my axe sharp lol!   Cool & rain every few days is fabulous!  My yard says THANK YOU!  My lawnmower says ugh! Love the GREEN! Much better than brown! 

20 hours ago, John1122 said:

The boring season continues here but the first two weeks of Met summer look favorable as far as us not roasting goes. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook favors BN temps and near to bn precip. 

The first two days of met summer have produced low 70s yesterday and only mid-60s at 1pm here with rainfall both days. 

The countdown is on until the first true cold front of fall. 

Let’s hope a cooler & wetter summer prevails.  
Hopefully October does not torch.  
I feel the wx is unpredictable these days.  I don’t expect much of a winter as in snow.  I am afraid severe wx is going to be the common theme instead.  Hope I’m eating a lot of crow about winter.