Matthew70

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

You aren't kidding - there's a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone.  Nice temp gradient too...

My niece just moved to Billings MO! She’s a traveling Dr. occupational therapist 

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jan 1 Cansips is in....seasonal to BN for all of January.

Unfortunately, it appears it’s just gonna be low 40s with some cold rains.  We need the rain, but I can do without the cold rain.  Well in 10 weeks it’ll be mid March knocking on spring.

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is also onboard for a major winter storm next weekend. I hope we can reel one of these in instead of having it collapse.

Thats a pretty good trio to have on our side.  

Happy New Years to everyone!  I hope it’s a wonderful year for ALL.  I hope we all get a big snow before winter is over. 

10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As for why the snow record is messed up?

I don't know, but is is missing snow for sure.  I do know that the scientific method involves hypothesis, collecting data, and then making sound decisions based upon that data.  Data will often tell us if we are right or wrong in our hypothesis.  Bad data will often give us incorrect results.   Corrupt data makes it very difficult to find the truth.

When we set out with a preconceived notion of truth, and don't bother to look to see if data follows our thinking....we may miss bigger truths.  I get super uncomfortable when people (who ask good questions) are seen as crazy or just sidelined.  Now, all of us probably get irritated when someone maybe implies that we are wrong.  Nobody likes being wrong.  But when cooler heads prevail, often we don't mind it.  So, with that in mind I will say this.

Is it warmer than it was 30 years ago?  Yes, especially at higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

Am I getting less snow?  Maybe.  Maybe not.  I think higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere are certainly seeing much less snow.  I think there are fewer big storms IMBY.  Summer lasts longer, but spring seems to come later(not this year I don't think).

Is it due to manmade causes?  Possibly.  But it could also be something which we do not see, and maybe that worries me the most.  It bothers me to see people have to accept things that may or may not be true or may be partially true.  This could also be a much larger cycle that we don't understand.  My overall belief is that if we can produce less pollution, that is a good thing no matter what side of the aisle one is.  Is it reasonable to eliminate all pollution?  Probably not at this stage in history, and that is probably not realistic.   But I still want my grandkids to breathe clean air, drink clean water, catch fish/hunt, and have wild places to visit.  But I also do like plentiful electricity, A/C, cars, planes, and computers.  

Are data sets being corrupted to fit an agenda?  Yes, and I don't completely understand why.  I have my theories, but will probably keep those to myself for now.  The last four or five years certainly don't give me that comfy feeling that I am being told the truth.  For all of those reasons, I think asking great questions, listening to others with different opinions, and being a critical thinker are important, just as they always have been.  I don't like group think, and sometimes I think when questions are not asked...there is a risk that we have confirmation bias.  The missing data does make me think that confirmation bias is in play.

 

Carver very well said.  I am like you in that I am not on either side of the climate spectrum.  Do I believe it’s changed.  Most definitely but you said the key words.  “Has it changed for reasons we don’t know”.  Yes no doubt man has added some effects but I don’t believe it’s to the levels the politicians & govts. are saying.  I like you wonder is this a cycle that we are going thru or is the earth striking midnight. We have heard that many years from now the sun will go out.  Who knows if true. I am saddened also to see what we are doing to the earth.  With the technology of today how can recycling not be more important & efficient.  I watch builders just erase everything off the land to build houses & buildings.  It’s sad & disgusting.  I want my kids to have a beautiful earth to live on not a barren wasteland.  Why do houses not have solar panels built on the roofs already.  Why do water heaters not get their electricity from solar panels.  It’s all about $.  Cutting corners & getting cheapest materials to build.  When in reality it’s killing the future for our kids. We have advanced so much as humans yet we still do things like it’s the stone ages. As far as the numbers being edited.  It does not surprise me. If they make the numbers less it plays into the $ making climate change narrative. 

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

When I first started following the weather, I don't remember many folks talking about the MJO or the Indian Ocean.   Our weather now is almost completely driven by the Pacific.  I am not sure if that is because the NAO was in a positive state for so long(fewer negative episodes), or if the PDO has been stronger driver and it has links to the MJO.

I think the PDO is sneaky important.  It correlates (normally, but maybe not right now) with the Nino/Nina cycle which also has some connection to the MJO.  But I wonder where we think the MJO/ENSO state is the most important...I wonder if the PDO is the trump card and the reason we haven't figured that out is that it is most times in sync w/ ENSO.  That PDO really sets the trough/ridge setup in NA.

Funny you say that.  When I started following also.  All I ever heard was about the AO/NAO/PNA. Never once heard about the MJO.  Now it’s all about the MJO.  Honestly it would not surprise me if another gets added to this group in the next few years.  One thing is for certain.  We are nowhere close to understanding wx.  

9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL.  Of course....

But for sure the least common denominator gets placed into the record about 90% of the time regarding snowfall.  Now, there is no arguing from me that the last three years have been less during January and February for TRI.  La Nina climatology(moderate or strong) is just a beast for TRI, and not in a good way.  Now, December snows for the last 15 years are way, way up for me.  This year didn't really have that, but the early, intense cold is reminded me a lot of 89-90.   The problem is that snowfall averages IMHO are going down at a faster rate than they should be for TRI.  For places like Chattanooga and Atlanta, the 10 year averages are probably more accurate.  Now, the Plateau westward have had banner winters prior to this last one.  

My plant hardiness zone has changed bizarrely after last December pretty much killed every plant and shrub that was on the "edge" of the old zone.  Interestingly, in central Florida they used to have loads of orange groves.  The climate supported them...until it didn't. During the early 80s when I lived there, the groves were wiped out by severe freezes.  I still don't think they can survive there without huge financial risks.  Now, due to population growth and financial risk, one would be hard pressed to find the density of orange trees that once were in that area.  I remember, after the freezes, seeing dead orange trees as far as one could see.  

 

The flash freeze last December destroyed much of my shrubs. I have replaced them but any time a flash freeze occurs like that.  Most likely it will kill my new ones even though they are cold hardy.  One can still see the damage to shrubs all around here.  Places just don’t have the $ to replace them all.  

39 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The maps they put out are horrible and worse, they change. The last huge blunder, and I noted it at the time, the March snowfall maps from our big storm were off by several inches at first, then the final map ended up just blanking all of Scott County, where I know for a fact 6 to 8 inches fell. I had 11 inches and it showed 10, then the final map showed 3 or 4 inches. 

1995-96 for the longest time showed Tri-Cities with around 3 inches total for January and a similar amount for February. 

I have the Knoxville News Sentinel that I posted for the February 1996 storm and it clearly says many areas had 14-16 inches, including Knoxville. The official record for McGhee-Tyson for February 1996 is 0.9 inches. 

So it makes me pause & wonder do they make us believe winters are more snowless now than they really are to fit a certain agenda.  Is it predictive programming.  Are places really having snow yet they tell us they are not. Interesting.  

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

My response should probably go in banter.  Considering I have had a White Christmas two of the last for years(rarely had one as a kid), I generally don't sweat things too much.  I also know beyond a shadow of a doubt that there is data missing from the 95-96 winters and others.  I have also seen snow taken out of recent reports(my own reports discounted).   I have screenshots of my conversations w/ MRX, MRX's own graphs which show the 95-96 snowfall, and an M next to days(on the record) where it snowed.  The snow record at TRI is as corrupted as any I have seen.  Honestly, it makes me angry to see what has been done to it.  I generally have to rely on @John1122's records (he is about 150 miles west of me and at a higher elevation).  I don't know if it is political or just poor record keeping by past individuals.  And MRX has some great, current mets...but someone has taken out snowfall data and won't record bigger results during even during the most recent storms.

Interesting.  This would be a good discussion to talk about as to why.  Is this also possible or true for other wx offices?  Is data missing there also?  Is it political or just lazy.  

I don’t get upset like I used to not having snow.  After so many years in 90’s I realized it’s just not the same climate it used to be in the 70’s.  Not at all saying it’s climate change. Which I’m not saying it’s not happening either but something changed.  I used to believe the earth & wx go in cycles. Maybe we are in a bad cycle for snow in these parts. I know this is not the place to discuss that topic.  I also remember as John said.  Warm Novembers usually don’t bode well for winter. I also feel TN seems to have more tornadoes than it once did & the plains not as many. I am hoping we don’t have another cold spring.  Cold rains in March & April are not fun for any of us. Though we might need those if we do not start getting the water table up.  Drought brings more drought.  Please no drought for this spring & summer. Come on cold & moisture. Give us a good ole snow storm. Sorry for the rambles. 

I just hope it’s not all a mirage, and the MJO  is the true reality.

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Dropping these here for later to see if they verify.....precip is much below normal from the Plateau westward.  It is below normal as well for E TN, but right next to AN...likely signifying snow(snowy areas are sometimes BN for precip on ext models).  Snow track is NE GA to the New England and secondary Midwest.  But give me that 500 pattern, those temps, that HL blocking, and an active El Nino storm track...and let's roll.  Fingers crossed this is legit.   Hard to believe a 46d temp map would be that cold. That would put DJF below normal for eastern areas.

 

After the warmup/thaw it will take a lot to erase + temps average across the area for January. Which it’s really not even a thaw.  We have a big soccer showcase mid January here.  Looks like going to be nice temps.  

26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If the MJO was driving the bus, this should park a trough out West.....that is a really cold pattern right there.  Hints of an EPO ridge, NAO(slightly displaced), and a confluence over our latitude.   Normally, I wouldn't show a 360 hour ensemble thumbnail, but go take a look at its past few runs.......this is a big change, and that started overnight.

 

Is this after the warmup thaw mid month? Or is the warmup being muted?

Merry Christmas to everyone & your families! It’s a wet Christmas but I will take it.  We need the rain.  Thanks to all who makes this the best wx board forum on social media. 

Well the soaking rains predicted earlier are all but a whimper now for this area.  Another cold shot then right back to the comfortable 55-60 temps.  If it’s not going to snow then I will take winter temps like that.  We are approaching the coldest part of winter.  I consider January thru mid February the window.  After that around here the chances are higher for ice & cold rains.  I am doubting winter really happens.  Weather has changed for the whole world. 

At this rate the higher amounts of rain are disappearing quickly for mid TN.  Beautiful day today. LR looks ho hum.  Rinse & repeat.  Will be interesting if winter really does show up for more than 2 weeks.  Strange how it seems we can’t get a solid 6-8 weeks of winter anymore. The earths wx is really bi polar anymore. 

At the rate winter is going.  I will be mowing my yard all winter.  Near 60 for next 10 days.  Christmas shows near 60 also.  My yard is green & growing.  

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Christmas through the first week of January(which was originally supposed to be very cold), will now potentially feature well above normal temps in ALL of North America.  I suspect modeling is over-doing that, but wow.  I do think we cool off by mid January(no place to go but up), but I wouldn't say I am overly confident in saying that.

This winter is a typical El Nino analog if extended LR modeling is correct.  Unfortunately (and you called it), we are now leaning towards the warm cluster of Nino analogs found during the mid 90s.  During the second half of the 90s, I wondered if winter would ever return.  We went 2-3 winters (in a row I think) where we had very little snow at all.  Thankfully, the 2000s brought back winter. 

This certainly is behaving like a warm iteration of the Nino pattern.  The current structure, which is just blasting the West Coast with maritime air, may be tough to break.  By the time we can reset the Pacific, days will be getting longer and cold air will still be lacking in Canada. 

I am trying to use a little reverse mojo as well by being more pessimistic than normal.  I called for a warm November years ago, and it turned out cold. 

We have rarely tracked a winter in the 2000s where the grass was green all winter......the 90s had more than one of those.  Severe weather was very prevalent during some of the 90s winters.

I guess the question is when will be the next bout of severe weather because we know it’s coming now.  Anytime you have above normal temperatures with cold fronts, pressing into the warmer air always spells trouble in the winter. 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GEFS actually looks decent by Dec 26th - like the old Euro Weeklies.  Source regions are AN though.  It is pretty textbook Nino - SE trough but more than marginal temps(meaning cold is absent).  Again, their should be an MJO correction.  That is a good step late in that run.  That would probably deliver cold by the second week in January.

The 18z operational has high elevation snow on the 25th.....

Well John has been firm in his warm Novembers usually are a telling sign……

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Exactly.   I agree with the overall sentiment.  
 

But if there is a trough set up over the SE, that makes it much tougher to get severe.  During spring when a trough is over the SE, it pretty much ends severe season.  Cool and rainy conditions make for poor setups for severe.  We need warm conditions with cold fronts charging southeast...like yesterday.    I have not talked about a torch.  A torch here is often linked to a SER or Bermuda high.  I would be surprised to see either.  For now just think weather like you might see in England.  I think we will see a lot of cloudy days in the 50s with cool overnight temps.  
 

But I do agree that we will likely see severe again before we see measurable snow.  Just watch for a ridge rolling through like we had last week?  When it departs due to a Canadian air mass...severe follows.  I don’t remember a lot of severe with zonal flow.  We need an amplified pattern with short wavelengths.  

I hope I eat a lot of crow.  At least we are getting some rains.  I will take the 50s & rain.  Much better than the 33 & rain. lol.  I’d love to see a good snow but like you have said.  Patterns usually last 6 weeks before they change if I remember correctly? Surprised with all the volcanoes going off that colder wx is not more globally. Strange times for the world. 

I’m thinking for the next month we are looking at another chance at severe wx before we get a chance at cold & snow. We have been up & down with these fronts & temps  & it’s only a matter of time before another round happens where cold meets warm. 

Well today just reinforces that tornadoes do follow the same paths or very close to the same paths as previous tornadoes. TN also continues its sad trend of tornado deaths. Today also shows that we are nowhere close to understanding why tornadoes happen. 

I’m sick

Horrible to see this happening.  This has turned into a min outbreak 

Unbelievable what is unfolding here in mid TN.