MikeB_01

Not sure they NWS is buying into the rapids. With their afternoon (1pm) discussion, they mention areas outside of the current advisories seeing less impacts. I would have thought that if they were going to change the advisories it would have been with the afternoon update.

I remember this one very vividly. I was in Youngstown for a wedding that day. THUMPING doesn't do it justice. The drive home was incredible. A foot of snow to grass in less than 60 miles. Wild.

Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day. The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens. We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick. Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping

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12z run of the Euro Ensembles.

12z suite got me like...

Agreed. There’s a lot of complicated pieces here that still need to evolve. The energy of the storm came in from the pac nw but now we need to see how it interacts with the southern jet. Lots of players still need to get closer to their positions for us to really figure out what is going to happen. .

Good and bad news tonight. The good: The GFS actually started picking up on something. The bad: The Euro is a little weaker and undergoes an east coast transfer sooner that the 12z run. Still early but the models seem to be honing in. Hoping to see the westward trek at some point. Time for sleep...

Absolutely. The 12z has more of a zonal look rather than the more amplified look we were seeing over the last few runs. Plenty of time for it to shift back.

200 mile shift to the southeast on the 12z Euro

Yes. Definitely not worried yet. Euro coming in now. Interesting to see if it shifts like the Ukie

oooofff

06z GEFS is pretty weak, but its there. Defitely nothing like what the other models are currently showing

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No we did not have one, but as of yesterday kpit came out and officially announced the end of the growing season for Nov 1. Therefore ending their frost and freeze advisories until spring time. .

Interesting that they would mention weakening after sunset. I mean that is how it usually goes, but instability was never really a factor yesterday anyway. It was all about the wind shear. I’m sure the sunset could have caused slight weakening, but the main fuel for those storms was the shear .

I had no thunder, but it has been a little breezy. Also, cool to be in the bullseye of low pressure for the system. Bottomed out at 1003mb at my house. .

The perfect weather day today to make us think fall! [emoji260] .

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2.85” in the rain gauge so far. This includes yesterday. .

Just a few drops this morning here. Really hope to hear some thunder later.

NWS forecast for Wed, thurs, fri, sat is 81, 84, 86, and 84. Get the AC ready. Summer is here. .

Yea, I'll admit i was wrong on this one. I thought the radar started to fill in around 9:00. As quickly as it filled in, it went away. HRRR still shows redevelopment once the suns goes down. We shall see.

Radar already starting to fill in again. I think this has been as advertised so far. This dry slot was showing up on the hres models yesterday, but I just think everything got started a few hours earlier than what was modeled. It started earlier, we dry slotted earlier, and looks like we are filling in earlier. .