MikeB_01

All hail King Ukie

Glorious

Still 3+ days out. I'm sure they will slowly ramp it up based on the trends.

FWIW --> GEFS has no clue. Max is 16. Min is 0. Mean is 2.

I dont buy that rain/snow map. Low track still look really good for us. If it take that track through Harrisburg we should be real good

I should mention that the black line is the deterministic run of the Euro. The mean is about 4"

12z EPS

If we have a run in which that beautiful magenta color makes it over AGC, I am going to need someone to inject that straight into my veins. Glorious

Everyone buckle up... Right now we are in the drivers seat. We know that models waffle and this one definitely will. Prepare for some shifts in either way and hope that it comes back.

.

As I was saying.. GEFS looking pretty good right now. The variability is crazy, but expected for this far out. I think any of us would take a 6+" storm right now.

I noticed this as well. That warm air is getting closer and closer to being sucked up right over western PA. A return of that dreaded warm tongue of death. The good news is that the GEFS is in a good spot. Moving west with each run, but for now it is good. I think...

The storm is there… time to watch. Hopefully the GfS has a better idea .

I know we all love the big storms, but sometimes on really clear sky mornings like today, it just makes me smile. Have a great day everyone.

Almost 2.5 down here in the south hills. Still some mood snow flying out there. Nice to see.

Yea, not bad so far. Snow line is out of Youngstown and moving east. Probably 2 more hours of this light stuff. The nice part is that because it is so cold, no compaction. Just dry and fluffy out there.

Not sure they NWS is buying into the rapids. With their afternoon (1pm) discussion, they mention areas outside of the current advisories seeing less impacts. I would have thought that if they were going to change the advisories it would have been with the afternoon update.

I remember this one very vividly. I was in Youngstown for a wedding that day. THUMPING doesn't do it justice. The drive home was incredible. A foot of snow to grass in less than 60 miles. Wild.

Alright, hear me out. I feel like this storm has a decent chance of over performing. Since last night, the models have moved a little further to the NW with the precip shield. This is also inline with the rapid models that are starting to see this event. The reason I'm so optimistic is the temperature and time of day. The sun will be down and the temps will be falling from the mid 20's to the upper teens. We will see 15:1 or better ratios for the majority of the event and every flake that falls is going to stick. Call me an optimist, but after looking tonight, I wont be surprised if most of AGC wakes up to 3+ and Westmoreland seeing 5+. Here's hoping

.

12z run of the Euro Ensembles.

12z suite got me like...

Agreed. There’s a lot of complicated pieces here that still need to evolve. The energy of the storm came in from the pac nw but now we need to see how it interacts with the southern jet. Lots of players still need to get closer to their positions for us to really figure out what is going to happen. .

Good and bad news tonight. The good: The GFS actually started picking up on something. The bad: The Euro is a little weaker and undergoes an east coast transfer sooner that the 12z run. Still early but the models seem to be honing in. Hoping to see the westward trek at some point. Time for sleep...

Absolutely. The 12z has more of a zonal look rather than the more amplified look we were seeing over the last few runs. Plenty of time for it to shift back.