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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
    13" through hr 27
  2. MikeB_01
    not sure why it is showing that mix. No signs of mixing on the sounding at that point.
  3. MikeB_01
    Yea its a pretty brief dryslot. Fills back in real quick
  4. MikeB_01
    welp. That is quite the dry slot
  5. MikeB_01
    Final thoughts on the night because we are all up for a long one tomorrow. We are in a really good spot. 10-12+ is on the table for sure. Good trends today and we can still see a shift tomorrow. 50 miles to the east and we might be in the bingo zone of 12-15 or more. It's all there for us to enjoy now. See ya tomorrow. Dream of snow.
  6. MikeB_01
    UKie is good too.
  7. MikeB_01
    Actual 850 wind speeds. The actual speeds are showing 35kts where 55kts was forecasted. Less windspeed at the 850 = less wind to push the warm air in. Sorry about the multiple posts. I tried to fit all of the graphics in one post. I couldnt do it. Overall point- there is some differences in the NAM 3K from the actual meso analysis in some key factors that i think will play an impact on our storm... Just some food for thought
  8. MikeB_01
    Second, the wind speed is not as strong as modeled. This can all change when the storm gets going in a few hours, but right now, the winds are less than forecasted. This could impact the amount of warm air aloft that gets pushed in. Less jet speed, less warm air. Forecasted 4z
  9. MikeB_01
    Also worth noting. Again, these are just some observations. The NAM (3K)which is our furthest west solution is struggle with certain key features only 4 hours off of its run time. First the temperature. Temps are significantly colder than what the NAM (3K) modeled for 4z. Forecasted 4z Actual 4z
  10. MikeB_01
    Interesting thing i noticed here. The temps have consistently been lower than forecasted for. Thats a good sign that the cold air is a little more stubborn than the models are predicting. Obviously this is different at 850 than at the surface, but still thought it was interesting to see the temps are starting colder than forecasted
  11. MikeB_01
    so bad
  12. MikeB_01
    HREF also showed 70% odd of seeing 1"/hr rates from 1am-4 am. That'll be fun to watch
  13. MikeB_01
    00z HREF looks good too. 10-12" for AGC. Heaviest right on the board of PA/OH. In line with everything else.
  14. MikeB_01
    Damn... That deform band lined up in eastern ohio. Man, how sweet would that be. Looks like most models have set that deform band a little further west than the metro area. Could totally see it moving a little east, but we will see. For the record, I would absolutely take 15+
  15. MikeB_01
    GFS looks to take a very similar path to HRRR but the deform band is about 50 miles further west.
  16. MikeB_01
    Hi Res NAM and HRRR probably only 50 miles different on that big band of snow
  17. MikeB_01
    14+ .
  18. MikeB_01
    Yo… .
  19. MikeB_01
    Great start to the 00z .
  20. MikeB_01
    Love nowcasting. Community moment -> I love nowcasting with you guys
  21. MikeB_01
    not at all. And most of the other models already have us there.
  22. MikeB_01
  23. MikeB_01
    here are the top 3 analogs on CIPS. This is based on the 12z NAM at hour 36
  24. MikeB_01
    I know purple is 6 and pink is 12. But distinguishing them on those maps is a different language .
  25. MikeB_01
    15z run of SREFs up to 8.
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