MikeB_01

-12° from my station in Bethel Park. Early this morning, KPIT set a record and was the coldest temp reached since 1994 at -11°. .

-12 imby this morning. Crazy to see the temps across the area

Driving home tonight, I saw a -7° on the car thermometer. Brrrrr .

will be fascinating to see if this verifies. Props to whoever had "gulf effect snow" on their bingo card

just an FYI - There is a new weather modeling site that i found that is pretty nice. Custom zooms, decent selection of maps, and nice graphics. Its called https://synopticwx.com/ I believe it will eventually cost money for access, but it is in Beta right now and free to sign up. Here is what the 06z Euro showed for our wednesday system

Honestly, 15 and no wind chill yesterday felt balmy .

-6 imby .

looking better on the GEFS as well.

00z GFS... Its still there for next Wednesday

only made it to 6° imby. But im not sure i have the thermometer in the best place for accuracy. 3° was the official at kpit

Ensembles continue to show high confidence in a Nor`easter developing this weekend off the eastern seaboard as a digging eastern trough invokes cyclogenesis Saturday into Sunday. What we are still uncertain of is the exact track of the low tied to the timing of (or if) the upper low closes off from the flow. The snowiest scenario is one in which the low closes early is deeper. There is really only one cluster representing 25% of guidance at this point that allows for this to happen. Should it occur, probabilities of snow are mostly confined to the high terrain of West Virginia (60% chance of >1", 30% chance of >3", 10% chance of >6"). 75% of guidance has the low closing too late (and too east) or not deep enough to suggest much appreciable snow accumulation in the forecast area at this time.

i thought i was crazy when i didnt see anything with reflectivity but could see if snowing outside. I did a little research and figured out that sometimes correlation coefficient sniffs out these low level pixie dust snows. Just thought that was pretty cool

see... i'm not crazy lol

Pretty positive movement today .

thats a hard pill to swallow, but it isnt like we are starting from scratch. We have a solid 10-15" snow pack on the ground. 2" would be awesome to watch fall on top

Might get some remnants of the squall .

Significantly. I’m sure it had some lake enhancement and is losing its luster as it dives southeast .

This looks frigid for us. .

Snow squall warnings all over the Cleveland metro and points southwest. .

Based on this and the analogs that I shared earlier, I don’t think it’s crazy to keep it on the table. I don’t think we will get 8+, but not a bad look to hope for a 2-3” event. Plus it will be so cold everything will pile up quick .

even if the models are not showing anything, we still have analogs in our favor. Here is the mean snowfall for the time period on the GFS -- would seem to indicate a decent chance for a 1-3 or 2-4 snowfall. At least we can hope

Can we squeeze another .5”? .

i think nws pit gave it a 10% chance of giving us 1-3.

i think it will get there. Where the clouds have cleared over ohio, the temps are plummeting. just need to get the stubborn clouds to move out. If you check the satellite imagery, they are moving.

i said it late last night, but for once, the DWTOD didnt win. And i thought it was modeled extremely well