KPIT discussion from this morning
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
All eyes will be on the storm system moving through the
Tennessee Valley into the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic
Wednesday night into Thursday. Two areas of sfc low pressure
will develop in response to the upper level low, the weaker one
over central Kentucky and the stronger one off the Atlantic
coast. They will slowly track northeast well ahead of the
upper level low pressure, which will finally reach the area
late Thursday night before swiftly exiting into the northeast
Friday.
Models are in general agreement on the timing and evolution of
precipitation areas. Precip will reach our southern zones mid-
Thursday morning and spread northward through the day. It will
be reinvigorated late Thursday night into Friday morning with
the passage of the upper level low to our south. As the low
exits, dry air and subsidence will begin, though NW flow will
allow for lake enhanced snow showers throughout the day.
The biggest uncertainty is the temperature profile both at the
sfc and aloft, which will greatly dictate precip type. Latest
model guidance and soundings show a slug of above freezing
850mb temps moving northward ahead of the upper level low at the
onset of the event, putting the onus on sfc temps to remain
at/below freezing to create any wintry mix. Sleet/freezing rain
is anticipated at the onset of this event, but these temps plus
daytime heating will change precip to rain for most areas and
limit wintry accumulations during the daytime. Though looking
much less likely...there remains a very small risk for a
prolonged freezing rain and/or sleet event if sfc temps are
slow to warm above freezing due to reinforcing cold air from the
east. Will keep watch in effect and hold off advisory issuance
for daytime crew who will get final look at model changes ahead
of event start time.