MikeB_01

Ensembles continue to show high confidence in a Nor`easter developing this weekend off the eastern seaboard as a digging eastern trough invokes cyclogenesis Saturday into Sunday. What we are still uncertain of is the exact track of the low tied to the timing of (or if) the upper low closes off from the flow. The snowiest scenario is one in which the low closes early is deeper. There is really only one cluster representing 25% of guidance at this point that allows for this to happen. Should it occur, probabilities of snow are mostly confined to the high terrain of West Virginia (60% chance of >1", 30% chance of >3", 10% chance of >6"). 75% of guidance has the low closing too late (and too east) or not deep enough to suggest much appreciable snow accumulation in the forecast area at this time.

i thought i was crazy when i didnt see anything with reflectivity but could see if snowing outside. I did a little research and figured out that sometimes correlation coefficient sniffs out these low level pixie dust snows. Just thought that was pretty cool

see... i'm not crazy lol

Pretty positive movement today .

thats a hard pill to swallow, but it isnt like we are starting from scratch. We have a solid 10-15" snow pack on the ground. 2" would be awesome to watch fall on top

Might get some remnants of the squall .

Significantly. I’m sure it had some lake enhancement and is losing its luster as it dives southeast .

This looks frigid for us. .

Snow squall warnings all over the Cleveland metro and points southwest. .

Based on this and the analogs that I shared earlier, I don’t think it’s crazy to keep it on the table. I don’t think we will get 8+, but not a bad look to hope for a 2-3” event. Plus it will be so cold everything will pile up quick .

even if the models are not showing anything, we still have analogs in our favor. Here is the mean snowfall for the time period on the GFS -- would seem to indicate a decent chance for a 1-3 or 2-4 snowfall. At least we can hope

Can we squeeze another .5”? .

i think nws pit gave it a 10% chance of giving us 1-3.

i think it will get there. Where the clouds have cleared over ohio, the temps are plummeting. just need to get the stubborn clouds to move out. If you check the satellite imagery, they are moving.

i said it late last night, but for once, the DWTOD didnt win. And i thought it was modeled extremely well

Just wondering why they included the 14 from and the 18! From Monessen and New Stanton area? Gotta be drifts.. I might dig a little and try to find if that one came from a trained spotter or not. .

record low for friday is -5°. Might be in jeopardy.

so you're saying theres a chance...

i too am feeling the withdrawal. So anything out there to track, im in

not sure if it helps, but CoCoRaHs is a good place to see the liquid equivalent with the snow measurements matched up. Sometimes you need to look at the reports closely because they don't always report at the same time, but it may give some insight into the ratios we had yesterday. All in all, I just dont think we had a deep enough or saturated enough DGZ to maximize snow growth. Its why our ratios were so low. It also explain why areas to the north did better with the ratios. That and the really nice frontogenesis that set up around butler co yesterday

some mood snow flying around out there right now.

welp, I tried really hard to get it there, but im really close to the colonel and we got about the same. 11.4" An awesome storm - We beat the DWTD. Thats a win by itself

It will be really interesting to see which model performed the best. .

and just like that, the snow has shut off for me. I am going to get out here and do one final measure. Whether its over 12 or not, this was one hell of a fun storm to track. Well done, everyone.

Crazy… I think with that last batch they might have got to 11. But I would have thought 12 was their total for sure .