FWIW - 00z HRRR hr 3 placed the warm nose at the 850 level around the middle of kentucky.
Currently on the mesoanalysis, the 850 warm nose is sitting in southern kentucky and well below what was modeled by the HRRR. Not sure this matters in the long run, but an observation none the less.
I'm also just looking for reasons to continue to stay 100% sure that I am cashing in on my 14" bet