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MikeB_01

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  1. MikeB_01
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  4. MikeB_01
    Here are the latest 48-hour ensemble-based probabilities through 7 AM Monday (from NW to SE / Mercer County to Tucker County): 15":15-55% 12":50-75% (up from 30-70%) 8": 75-90% (up from 60-90%) 6": 85-95% (up from 80-95%) 4": 90-100% (up from 85-99%) This is from the discussion this morning. They do mention lower ratios as the warm air intrudes from south to north. Something to keep in mind, but definitely the reason for that sharp cut off on the 06z euro kuchera
  5. MikeB_01
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 14 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary.
  6. MikeB_01
    .3 less QPF on the new Euro compared to the 12z and .2 less than the 00z GFS. Not a bad run at all. Just noting some observations
  7. MikeB_01
    yep. 12z Euro on the left. 00z on the right.
  8. MikeB_01
    yes. Slightly north. Splitting hairs between the 12z and 00z
  9. MikeB_01
    yeah. Southern energy looks to be slightly ahead of where it was at 12z and the kicker seems to be further behind. I would think that this would allow that low to amp a little more and bring some warmer air in.
  10. MikeB_01
    still pretty early on the Euro, but watching the 500 vorts. My guess is that it will be a little north form the 12z. Hope not too much
  11. MikeB_01
    Euro is running... here we go
  12. MikeB_01
    Eric Wilhem out of Youngstown. This is his call as of this evening. .
  13. MikeB_01
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    if it means anything to anyone, the SREFs are still moving in the right direction
  15. MikeB_01
    doing a little more analysis now.. Big differences at the 500 level for the NAM and the GFS. The northern kicker is further southeast and stronger on the GFS than it is on the NAM. Keeping our southern energy a little more to the south. Its a good look and good to know that the new data was in on that GFS
  16. MikeB_01
    To keep the positives with the GFS -- It DID has the new data in the 00z run. 12 sondes of data worth
  17. MikeB_01
    Pretty inline with the RGEM. Fairly decent outlier as far as the western extent of the core of the storm. Pretty sure it is just those two putting the heaviest band of snow through cleveland
  18. MikeB_01
    here is the sounding for the NAM when the sleet makes it closest to SAGC. Can you imagine getting sleet at while it is 17° at the surface?! would be wild
  19. MikeB_01
    I think its also important to remember that it is a prototype and definitely not operational. I would imagine it has some bias. However, as i looked a little closer to that run, the mix line doesnt advance much past the PA border. It must be the bad ratios that make their way in and cut off on some of the bigger numbers
  20. MikeB_01
    is the new sampled data going to be in the fresh GFS and Euro runs again tonight?
  21. MikeB_01
    then there will be a lot of crashing out here in this forum.
  22. MikeB_01
    .
  23. MikeB_01
    We love living on the edge .
  24. MikeB_01
    That’s what you call smelling the sleet! .
  25. MikeB_01
    Be my eyes colonel. I’m not able to check my computer for a while, but I’ll count on you guys to keep me updated. I like the sound of the NAM being a little South! .
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