you beat me to it. I was going to post the trend over the last few days of the NAM. Honestly, this run is pretty in line with all the other ones -- maybe even a little better.
something looked a little off on the last couple of frames on the HRRR. No mix at all, but only in the area. And that run looked really good until the rain jumped north pretty abruptly
this is an interesting question. I'm not sure the heavy precip can have the same affect on a column of air that has already been saturated? Someone way smarter than me would need to address this
i havent compared the RTMA to the models, but the SREFs have a feature that plots their members vs the actual temp. Temps are definitely a little warmer than what they are predicting.