MikeB_01

I feel like the nam is always too amped

lol

Interesting... I just got a notification on my phone for a winter storm watch of AGC

25 miles south during nowcasting and all of AGC is in the bullseye. I know this is wishful. Don't literally rain on my parade, please.

first glance

FWIW, Bernie still putting Pittsburgh in the 6-12 zone. Using the deeper dig on the southern energy as a justification to move the snow totals further south like the Euro.

Definitely further south than the American models. Closer to Euro. Still has downtown in the 10+ range. You are right that it is hard to buy, but the UKie is playing with some colder temps closer to the center of low pressure. Moral of the story will of these models is that we still have some time and they are all close. Reason for concern? Sure. Ive said it a bunch and will continue to say it. The 00z run on tonights Euro will probably be what the storm will do. Just my hunch

"The GFS really should not be holding onto that LP over Pittsburgh like it is.  The 500mb would not be able to exhaust a LP there anymore at this time and it should have gone off the Delmarva like the ICON. Not saying it should be as snowy as the ICON or that the ICON is right, just saying looking at that 500mb, that LP should have pushed SE by hour 60 instead of running into Pittsburgh. Looking at 500 there CAN NOT be a LP underneath that, that is not the way the atmosphere exhausts to the SFC. But being that the GFS cannot pick up on mesoscale resolutions as well as others, it hangs onto the LP longer than it should because it doesn't yet see the next LP developing as fast as the mesoscale models." I want to make sure that I give credit to who posted this. I thought it was very insightful. It comes from @snowwolf on the USA Weather thread. He is listed as a meteorologist. @Rd9108, might explain that weird action you mentioned on the GFS

The precip came north a little, but the L went SE. Looking at this and using the 6z/18z as an indicator, I expect the Euro to hold strong tonight. No big changes. Tomorrow the storm gets sampled and we start to see what this beast will actually do. .

How do we get from one frame to the other??? What happen in between these two frames is huge

From what I am hearing, the UKie is good and the thing we keep forgetting is that the Euro, KING EURO, is for once on our side. I won't give up until tomorrow night. If the 00z Euro is the end of a bad night, then we can call it.

Tomorrow the system comes ashore and we get some sampling of the system. I think the 00z run tomorrow night is probably what the storm looks like.

So im still breaking down the NAM. AGC goes no warmer than 32° surface temp the entire time. The thing that is the most maddening about this is that the NAM warms to 1°C at 850. 1°... Its crazy that 1° could keep us from a pretty epic snowfall for the area and plunge us into the mix.

Fing A. AGC is always the pivot point. It's crazy how consistent that idea is.

Make the phasing stop please

SREFs are staring to get into range now too. Just another tool we can use. Honestly, the mean looks pretty inline with the UKie and the Euro. And it really has some outliers to the west.

Also a good point... Hopefully the answer is nothing and we can get a little more southen trend. Id just feel more comfortable with it further south. More room to for when it undoubtedly comes back to the north. Time to break out the detour signs again tonight? They worked well last night. We all woke up happy

I think the big thing to remember from the 18z Euro is that we still don't really know how the version of this model performs. It only goes out to 90 hrs or so and is very new. Similar to how I put more stock into the 00z and 12z runs of the GFS and NAM. Not sure if there is any validity to what i just said, so take it for what it is worth

Quite a few northernlies on this run.

I know https://truewx.com/products/weather-models/ has them. I usually just get them from the people that are posting them on the USA weather forum. I also think that Ryan Maue's website (www.weathermodels.com) has them as well. His website is pretty difficult to navigate though. Both you need to pay for

Golly... Can you just go another 20 miles or so to the south? lol

Every one of them is over the DelMarVa

Hearing th same from the USA weather forum