MikeB_01

As i sit here watching the 00z suite come in, the PA central folks jump for joy, and the morale of our own group wains faster than our snowfall totals. For a moment, I am going to put my rose-colored glasses on and try to keep a few things in perspective. 1. Models have been trending in our way all day. 1-2 model runs back in the other direction doesn't kill our dreams. 2. 6-8 is still a really good storm and this is what I think the most of us will still see. Is it 30? no, but we will keep hoping for that. 3. Storms that ride up from the south like this always seem to amplify more than what the models think. Remember Jan 2016 --I was thinking 3-4" event and it over amplified into a 9" storm for me. On the other side, Jan 2019-- the models had us constantly on the mix line. Snow to mix and back to snow, hoping to get 3-4 " out of it. It over amplified again and we rained for nearly the entire storm. So if the models are trending a little lower in your area, keep in mind that these things have a tendency to go a little NW than what the models think. 4. I will enjoy the snow falling down tomorrow regardless of if we get 4, 6, 8, 10 or 12. But im hoping for 12! Enjoy your night everyone.

Positive thought on the NAM.. We were happy with the 00z run last night. Tonights run is essentially a carbon copy. Its crunch time now. We can watch the models come in tonight, but we all know that this is coming down to watching its progression tomorrow morning.

once the euro comes in they will do an update

Was just going to post this as well. Good to see the HREF on our side. Inject the max straight into my veins, please.

January 19? 2019 maybe... We got all rain and Youngstown received a foot of snow

SREF. I like this model. I know that everyone does not, but its trending better as well. Up to 10 for kpit

24 hour trend in at the 500 level. Slight, but definitely moving in the right direction. Precip also moving that direction over the 24 hours period.

Anyone have a Euro map to post? .

Just like the euro. Model watching games are in full effect right now

I think the precip coming down a little bit is due to the trough being a little flatter than it was on previous runs. Regardess of what the snowfall totals are on this run, the energy remained relatively the same

Seems ok for the uncertainty in the models. Definitely conservative

At hour 60 little further west and stronger. Both are better for us. Not a huge improvement, but better than GFS/Can

Honestly, that 12z run of the RGEM is better than the previous 00z and 6z The position of the energy and the low is further west. The precip shield isn't as impressive, but im not too worries about that. Keep watching the energy

If i had an inch of snow for every time i've said this sentence.

First one with true samplings is probably 00z tonight. Just speculating though.

wouldn't mind that band setting up over the area for a while.

I know it’s not a weather point, but this snow looks awesome in the Christmas lights... I feel like it’s been a while since we’ve have a nice December event with all the lights up .

Temps are dropping as well so that snow ratio is climbing!

Honestly, chances for 4+ looking pretty good. I will say, I am a little nervous and skeptical about this one. Relying on the backend of a system to cool the column enough to start snowing is something that I have a hard time relying on. It just never seems to happen fast enough without drying out the column at the same time. Model support seems good this time, but i wouldn't be surprised to see the low end of these amounts either.

It’s been years. I feel like September has been August 2.0. This is refreshing. .

Haha this would be too typical in the winter, but it also feels like this is the way summer is going too. I wish there was a metric to determine how much thunderstorm activity we’ve had this summer. I know it has been try, but I feel like we’ve really lacked those nice afternoon boomers as well. Maybe just me in the south hills? .

a blocking pattern finally decides to show up. On may 9th.

From November through April. A perpetual state of 40° .

What time are we thinking here? 2-2:30? I was going to try to sleep for a little before .

Sure was fun. Got a quick coating out of it .