MikeB_01

Just watched a video by BR. He’s going 4-8 for Pittsburgh. Doesn’t believe the GFS based on what he’s seeing on the H5. Leaning towards the Euro. .

GFS for sunday... LOL

And just as I say this, it fought through the dry air. I have some light snow falling now .

lots of dry air to fight first. .

The early stuff on radar isn’t making it to the grounds. .

Something to watch. With the snow starting by 11 and out of here by 4, that would be really impressive to get 5 out of that .

I'm going to try to start producing snow maps to help keep track of my thinking before a system. Here is tonight. I think I took a middle ground between NWS and HRRR. Let me know what you guys think.

Now that is intriguing. .

I always forget these guys are free euro. Thanks .

Would love to see the H5 on this run. Anyone have access to it? .

big difference from this time last night

Well the surface map didn't change much, but the pieces in play at the H5 certainly did. Notice the change of the ULL to the north. There is a pretty significant shift back to the west. Or at the very least, a less impressive eastern piece.

Pretty interesting changes on the 00z GFS thru hour 90. Wouldnt be surprised if it looks more like the euro by the time this run is done

Earlier WPC discussions are not accounting for the NAM. Pretty much just marking it as an outlier at this point. Of course they are. The one that gives us quick 2-3 is the disregarded outlier.

My station made it all the way to 54 today. Not exactly sure how accurate it is, but the when it picked up 54, the views outside were an entirely different level. Trees severely bending, windows rattling, random things flying across my yard. It was crazy. My guess is the sleet that you saw was the same graupel that I saw. I had temps in the 40s as well. Graupel makes sense with the lower levels of the atmosphere being so unstable today. Wind still howling out there. Gusts getting up into the low 40s still. .

46 mph on my roof so far. Shook the entire house. Really makes me wonder what living through a hurricane must feel like.

3.5 total. 2.75 all snow, .75 mix sleet and snow. .

Back to snow for me as well. I had 2.75 in before the sleet. I’ll go back out in a little and get what feel since the sleet started. .

Having problems figuring out why the mixing is happening already? Mesoanalysis still shows all column still frozen. Any ideas?

I measure at 7 and at 8. 1"/hr rate has verified in the south hills and it is snowing harder than it has all morning. THUMPING

Really coming down in the south hills. If you are not on the roads, it sure is puuurdy

Call it a wishcast if you want, but the short terms will have a better idea of the thermals as they develop. The collision between the HP sitting over NE and the stream of moisture from the south will develop overnight. Bernie mentioned the wet bulbs tonight. A good place to look if you want to see when the change over will occur. .

That would be a thump. 5 hours of 1 in per hour. Roads will be a disaster. .

15z SREFs.

should be noted that this run of the 3k also comes with .38 of ice. Might be a little over the top