MikeB_01

Probably need a new thread for this, but . i wanted to share. Impressive that we have a day 5 signal for severe weather. Day 5 (Saturday) the shortwave trough will suppress the upper ridge and continue through the Great Lakes and the Northeast States accompanied by a cold front. By Saturday evening the front should extend from the lower Great Lakes westward into the upper MS Valley region. Dewpoints in the low-mid 60s F will likely advect through the pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in modest instability with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely develop along the cold front and spread southeast into the OH Valley and a portion of the Northeast States. A mid-level jet attending the shortwave trough will contribute to sufficient unidirectional shear for organized storms with damaging wind and hail the main threats.

KPIT launching an extra weather balloon today in order to survey the atmosphere. Today is one of those days. Lots of shear to enhance the storms for later. .

We can hope, but its not looking good lol

Should be pretty gusty on sunday. On the sounding the wind at surface level is only about 15mph, but the fact that the wind barbs are in the same direction up to 850mb makes me think that some mixing from the mid levels can cause some wind to make its way down to the surface. Nothing like 2 weeks ago, but I could see a gust to 40 or 45.

3.25 total. .

Sitting at three right now. Ive probably got another half an inch out there still on radar.

Hopefully it holds together. .

I’ve been stuck in this super fine mist of a snow for the last 2 hours. Probably somewhere around 2” so far .

1.5 so far. That’s it. .

Trying to understand where the dry air is coming from. All levels of atmosphere appear to be saturated. Any ideas?? .

Anyone else already tired of Jeff V on twitter? All I hear about it "No hype" / "No Fearcasting". Great, that is really appreciated. Some stations are notorious for fearcasting, I get it. But come one, he didn't even start talking about accumulating snow until Friday night. He was still saying "snow shower".

will be interesting to watch the battle between the snow rates and the sun today. Been snowing for a little while here and starting to stick to the grass. Really struggling to stick on anything else.

With pretty much no change to the forecast. Kinda makes me wonder if someone over at the NWS took a little too much authority in making that call for the WSW. I don’t know the procedures but I’m sure a lot of people were shaking their heads at that .

I did notice the 3K went a little NW. Very slight. HRRR and RAP are all very similar. KPIT holding steady with its 4-6 in idea though. Even made a statement on twitter about how nothing has changed to their numbers.

Looks pretty much like my forecast from last night. .

Pretty sure weather.com just goes straight GFS data. .

Classic when CWA offices don't communicate

F Boston and their 12" snow storm. They complained all year and it looks like they will be rewarded with it. They got a decent hit today and another one coming tomorrow

Yes and their discussion also mentions the saturated DGZ. If they are right and this storm produces 6", it will be a major learning event for me

KPIT issuing WSW for a 4-6 event. 6 is the absolute max i can see from this fast mover. Everything to me is looking like a 2-4 though. Do you think someone at the NWS is drunk?

UKie. 2-4”. It’s what we do .

Can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Euro being out to lunch is the new norm .

First call...

Trying to do a little analysis as we go here... Over the last several runs with the NAM, the ULL is shifting just slightly south and east. Undoubtedly the reason for the snow totals going that way as well