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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
  2. MikeB_01
    Insane gradient. But honestly, this seems to be close to what most think. Maybe a little higher in total, but pretty good on the distribution
  3. MikeB_01
    I'm going all in. Wish casting 12+ for the entire area. Lets Go
  4. MikeB_01
    Good news with this discussion is that they seem fairly confident in that warm air not making it as far north as the metro. Staying in WV and Laurels
  5. MikeB_01
    I can say one positive thing about this storm. Once it is over, my boss and my wife will be much happier...
  6. MikeB_01
    Yep. I think that this is an insanely complicated storm. Multiple centers at different levels that are all fluid in their reactions to each other. I think the model have done incredible when finding the general placement of the storm, but have really struggled to figure out the temp profile and timing of transfer
  7. MikeB_01
    At least the dry slot is less?
  8. MikeB_01
    Yuck... sloppy.
  9. MikeB_01
    We got to win at some point right?
  10. MikeB_01
    09 z run of the SREFS has kPit at 8
  11. MikeB_01
    This morning Harbaugh had a map showing 5-9 covering the majority of the area. A pocket of 9-12 north of AGC and a 3-5 area south of westmoreland where he thinks mixing will occur. .
  12. MikeB_01
    Yes that heavier band lines up on the western side of the area. Still seeing some mixing work in right now. Still not ready to buy it, but more models are starting to show this.
  13. MikeB_01
    Probably a blend after the euro came in last night. Which wasn’t a particularly stellar run for us. The ho hum 5-6 “ over AGC .
  14. MikeB_01
    Agree. I don’t think there is anyway that this runs the coast. It definitely an inland storm. .
  15. MikeB_01
    I'm also totally basing this off of wishcasting and the fact that every meteorologist on the planet still has the main axis of precip east of the city. The CMC run has me hyped right now though.
  16. MikeB_01
    Still time for a little eastward shift too.
  17. MikeB_01
    nearly as good as it gets
  18. MikeB_01
    Canadian looks nearly identical to 12z through hour 60.
  19. MikeB_01
    I'm not buying that mixed precip yet. I get that the mid level low will be transfering and depending on how long that takes some warm air will be moving in at the 850 level. That being said, the surface will be at 22°F at the time the NAM shows 33° at the 850. Thats a crazy and ridiculous gradient. I'm not saying that is cannot happen, it certainly has, but that is pretty rare to see that kind of disparity. At least im hoping it is...
  20. MikeB_01
    That would be a beat down of all beat downs. Good rates to the east and to the west, but we are in the slot. Ugh.. That being said, NAM at 84 hours. I'm not worried yet. We still see that dry slot 24-36 hours, then im worried
  21. MikeB_01
    That picture shows the ULL in southwestern virginia. I should have also include this one which shows its next move after. Moving into southern (kinda) eastern PA. This is pretty good track for us. Is it 12+? Probably not, but that would be a 6-8" track
  22. MikeB_01
    Keep in mind also that the storm is officially onshore over Washington. Fresh real-time data injected into the models for 00z runs tonight
  23. MikeB_01
    I think the surface map has a lot going on. BR always say to track the 500 L. If you stick to that rule, this looks like a solid Euro run for us. The ULL traveling where it is puts us in a good spot. Maybe the western edge, but i still think we are ok for right now
  24. MikeB_01
    Euro pretty much holds suit. That dry slot is going to drive us crazy as the storm starts to approach
  25. MikeB_01
    The euro is running...
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