MikeB_01

Agreed. We could start summer on January 19th and i would be very pleased

19/20 of those are solid. .

It is inevitable for the evolution of the storm. Where it goes and how long it stays around will change totals. Lots of models have the dry slot to the south and east of AGC. .

Hilarious considering the NAM just put out 30+ on Erie. He has 3-6

This pleases me. .

I feel like a lot of the guidance is on board though. Everything except the NAM is east. NAM the only one that is stubbornly holding out on a westward solution. As i said earlier, Im not sure how much stock mets are putting in NAM. Here is the warning map for CLE NWS. Last 4-5 runs of the NAM have dropped more than a foot on CLE and points east. Not even a WWA for Cuyahoga County (where cleveland is).

Even when in range, i HRRR is a superior model to the NAM

Definitely a different set up than 2019. The ULL went right over Pittsburgh. And about 48 - 36 hr out, we started to see the westward move. The WTD showed itself early on.

Cautiously optimistic. That is how i would describe my mood right now. Nowcasting strategy -> Take a Xanax, grab some snow brews, and enjoy the uncertainty

This is a fun one... This is the 6hr snowfall while we are under the deform band. 1"+/hr rates showing up on HRRR

Yeah, still some time to wobble. Could easily see some changes over the next 24. The good news is that the hi res models are coming in as they are. Heavy and consistent.

Dry slot in westmoreland county on that 18z HRRR, but it does't seem to change the accumulations a whole lot. Once the atmosphere saturates, that deformation band is crushing us.

This is what I was talking about earlier. Experience and intuition. However, ice would be a reflection of freezing rain, which we won’t see. Air too cold at 925 .

Temp profile looks good here. .

Look at that 31.5 bullseye in Erie .

It’s pretty expansive. Though it totally depends on the warm layer aloft. We know the surface-925 will be plenty cold. Even if the 850 level is 33 for a little, I think it is very brief. We have a deepening ULL with heavy rates and it will cause that column to cool quickly. .

Woah. .

GFS? .

I just think this is where met intuition / experience comes in ahead of modeling. The discussions are full of comments about the rate of evaporative cooling. Even if we sleet, it should be brief and then we should be thumping again.

Honestly, i didn't think the RGEM was bad. I saw the sleet show up, but the column cooled fast enough that Im not worried. Awesome rates on that run.

Me neither. Especially that wide spread. Now that is definitely the high end. That is the max. But I’ll take a chance. .

Beautiful deform band on that run.

The biggest uncertainty is the TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) and just how much of a SLR reduction we`ll receive. Latest 00z NAM Nest suggests a warm nose of 1-2C at 850mb in the trowal, while other models suggest a little colder. If this were to occur, snow ratios would be greatly reduced if sleet becomes mixed, or even a brief period of freezing rain. However, at this time, it does appear this is the warm outlier. Given the other models are colder and the combination of evaporational and dynamic cooling associated with the steady/heavy precip band, the current snowfall forecast assumes little to no melting. If the warm solution were to verify, we can easily knock off a few inches of snowfall.. but will still receive accumulating snow as the warmest warm air shifts away quickly. This is from the forecast discussion this morning. Definitely considering the NAM, but clearly marking it as the warm outlier.

Another observation, NWS probably isn't putting much stock into the path/idea the NAM has been taking. NWS Cle hasn't even issued anything but a hazardous weather outlook for most counties. They obviously don't think the heaviest snow will set up over their area.

So you're saying there's a chance...