MikeB_01

All rain in the south hills right now. Roads are a slushy mess .

I used to post all the time.. I need to get into it again. Hopefully this active pattern brings me back .

Forecast probably isn't updated at the exact time that they put out the advisory.

18z HRRR is THUMPING after a couple hours of some dynamic cooling happens in

my concern at this point is that the DWTD usually gets closer than what is modeled. Warm air advection is not always modeled well.

Good trends so far tonight! Keep it moving west!! .

00z GFS is bad for everyone... there is almost no bingo zone at all

I’m not sure how reliable that data is. The AWS had a major outage today that was causing some weird things with the data. .

Just for reference based on the discussion. Current ice vs Average for Lake Erie

Set the bar low and you can never be disappointed. I see what you are doing

Upper st clair is already rain. mPings are not encouraging. Where is shows the snow, it is definitely mix/rain

Ill be interested to see how much of those brighter colors are actually snow. MY guess is that some of it is the rain moving in

I still haven’t even seen a flake of snow. .

At this point bring on the 80s...

-.4 at my house. Dew point is -9°. Crazy .

down to 27° already. This plunge is going to be impressive.

Yea definitely not very impressive. I have some snow falling, but it isn't much. Front hit my house about 5:10 am. Went from 40° to 32° in the last 40 minutes. Winds sound impressive. Gusting to 30 mph at my house.

I'm going to bed soon, but doing one last look into the modeling. Honestly, I am feeling better about this burst of snow. Most models have come up today and the NAM (I know, its the NAM) is showing remnant snow pivoting through christmas eve. Would make for the perfect festive scene. I'll be up early. See everyone then!

Extended HRRR has VERY minimal snow on the backside of the front. The precip dries out before dropping more than a dusting

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 235 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CREATE MULTIPLE HAZARDS ACROSS THE REGION... PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509- 220345- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1800Z/ Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette- Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Grove City, Latrobe, Weirton, Kittanning, Murrysville, Punxsutawney, New Castle, Canonsburg, Fairmont, Ambridge, Franklin, Sharon, Ford City, Butler, Lower Burrell, Morgantown, Tionesta, Washington, Monessen, Monaca, Wellsburg, Brookville, Waynesburg, Wheeling, Oil City, Hermitage, Clarion, New Martinsville, Aliquippa, Moundsville, Greensburg, Uniontown, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ellwood City, Beaver Falls, Follansbee, and New Kensington 235 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected Friday through Saturday afternoon. * WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday afternoon. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Strong winds could produce damage to trees and power lines, resulting in scattered power outages. Winds may gust over 40 mph Friday afternoon through Saturday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this situation.

Wind chill watch was just issued.

I always like the check the SREFs. Not the most reliable, but still fun to look at. Hovering right around 1" of snow. All falling with the passage of the front. The temps will be brutal by midday and not much change for 48 hours. Very impressive for December.

Yeah, NCEP saying GFS running about 30 minutes behind.