There a nice post from MAG in the Central Forum yesterday. He doesn't buy the expanse of the warm air that the NAM is showing. At least i think that is what he was saying. I think his post is still a popular post from yesterday so everyone can check it out.
Honestly, that HRRR run is about as good as it gets for us. The dry slot gets close, but not over us. The deform band (with awesome rates) sets up over us. Good juju
GFS had no mixing issue. We have definitely seen the placement of the dry slot and the deform band move around a little today. The NAM took the deform band from us to Cleveland in four runs today. Can easily come on back
Some good news on the GFS.
I was looking at some of the moisture profiles at the different levels of the atmosphere. The dry slot is showing up, but the atmosphere is still pretty saturated. Easy to overcome
We're fine. Remember, 48 hours out. Wobble baby wobble baby. We know the model doesn't have it perfect at this point. Still a lot of time to figure out the complexities of this system and figure out the exact placement and length of that dry slot. We are alright.