the_other_guy
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Everything posted by the_other_guy
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I think this has a lot to do with it. Nothing is really going right at the moment…including the winter weather many of us look forward to. This holiday season is like a Mets playoff run… -
The symbol of winter 2022 in westcheter continues…:)
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This is not a bust. People cherry pick models and runs that show trends they like and Manufacture a snowstorm. The thing is this is not politics, there is no spin. You are either going to get snow or you’re not. Inside 24 hours northwest track is a red herring. GFS, this year, is a joke. It was south it was always going to be south. Flow too fast. Air too dry
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I said it yesterday…You need to watch that race NW within 24 hours. Seen it too many times. Almost never pans out If you find yourself saying “24 hours out and we dont know” you are talking yourself into a wishcast. The models are good. They do know!
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This is a miss for NYC metro…
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january 3rd potential coastal grazer
the_other_guy replied to forkyfork's topic in New York City Metro
You know what to expect You just dont like it though -
january 3rd potential coastal grazer
the_other_guy replied to forkyfork's topic in New York City Metro
On one hand: Im not a fan of chasing these last minute northward trends. The general gist is a snowstorm just south of us…and 24 hours out, that is a good bet On the other hand: I wouldnt discount a northward trend on GFS. What garbage on last storm. That alone can not be baseline for prediction I know its a bad winter, but be careful of wishcasting… -
The GFS was garbage for early Dec snowstorm I wouldnt buy into that
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In my lifetime, we never had wall to wall. Even 96 wasnt But yes, those days of getting close are gone. What is amazing to see are places in the Adirondacks like Lake Placid that used to be wall to wall no longer are. We went up there every christmas. Always snowy and cold. They havent has a good xmas week in years!! This change didnt happen gradually… it happen rapidly. All within 20 years
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See the problem? This is always 10 days out We had a winter like this several years ago 10 days out is fantasy land Anything in a reliable time frame shows the same pattern
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In my adult life I remember more New Year’s Days in the 50s then snow on the ground December has become such a disaster. Very sad
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Already closing in on 50F with brilliant sunshine. What a miserable month for winter lovers. Stick a fork in it
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Meanwhile at Hunter Mountain…foggy mushy chilly
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Ironically, this is Seattle winter weather 40F Mist at moment
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I dont know why you got a weenie for this statement. Its true. Almost like we are now dealing with emotions over weather…
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Todays sunrise
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It was never going to be cold this week. lots of people talking themselves into a pattern change 2 weeks out that is why the January thread is already 5, YES 5, pages long on Dec 28 They will be disappointed next week again…just like they were last week. Looks like some intermittent seasonal temps between spikes of 50s. It is a west year. They need it. And frankly, we need some dry months
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Nobody else has this sleet?? Surprised the forum is so quiet!
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Quickly becoming the symbol of this winter 45F, shorts. Another week of 50F inbound!
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too warm. You need to start with some cold air to make these thread the needle threats work. There’s a good chance I won’t even go below freezing until the 30th… i’m 15 miles north of the city.
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.5. Ill take it! Merry Christmas all!
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I think it was an echo chamber of wish-casting…but Im not the prediction expert others are. Very early on seemed like a tail chasing the dog
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what happened to the pattern change y’all discussed for the last few weeks?
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Just dont turn on the news
