the_other_guy

and the problem with trying to quantify that : there is no statistical reasoning why it’s happening. That’s why it’s hard to actually put that fact into a bullet point. the fact is that for the last several years, there seems to be a warm-up just before Christmas with little scientific reason for it. I would say the most concerning thing I see going into the winter is that these cold shots seem to be very transient in nature again. I was 36° when I went to bed and the warm air moved in and it’s already up to 39 and there was no warm front. Just an aggressive movement of warm air to push out short-term cold air which we’ve been seeing over the last few years. also, concerning is the city just doesn’t seem to get cold anymore. I jumped 10° the minute I crossed into the Bronx. that’s very concerning and it’s almost like an urban heat island on steroids

don’t write off this December. This is not a typical Nino yet. Adjusted for climate change over the last 30 years, This fall has been pretty cool. No typical nino warmth. None in sight…yet. Sept AN by a decimal. Oct AN by 2 and change. Nov so far Normal. I wouldnt bet on a +5 for Dec. Lets see

27F. Blew right thru the forecasted low. Glad JFK and EWR did it. Im not surprised by JFK. That is the airport that radiates best due to its location

You can see the UHI at LGA and why they wont get below freezing tonight. I like JFK though for the city

you guys are pushing a narrative that is way out. Just like five days ago you were pushing for record warmth at the end of this week… That isn’t gonna happen. Stop getting wrapped up in things that are 10 or 15 days away.there is no accuracy just trends. A good prediction is that every month going forward is going to be a little above normal. Some will be very above normal. Some will be slightly below normal.

in theory, they should be growing, but due to restrictive development policies of the ring counties, they have some of the lowest development rates in the nation. As you said, most of that has shifted south.

The urban heat island is not growing in New York City area at all. within New York City it certainly growing. due to restrictive development policies, It’s not growing in Nassau or Westchester at all. down to 33 this morning as predicted. looking for upper 20s tonight. we shall see

I would think Jfk has a better chance than LaGuardia or Central Park. Jfk does well on radiating nights. LGA is worst effected by UHI Either way, if this happens, it may be the first time that I remember everybody in the area has gone below freezing, some of us several times, and New York City still has not

I was in the Foodtown parking lot and was also hit with it around 635pm last night. I dismissed it. Hastings on Hudson

Words of wisdom!!

God are they ever

The only stations waiting on that are in city.

almost all of us have gone below freezing already. It’s really down to a few counties. Best of luck, because if not Monday it’s gonna be a while. Now brilliant sunshine, but a little bit too late for the run at 70

Dont preach gospel when its a week out haha

top 10 day of the year. Especially for the cooler half of the year. 61F and sun

+4 with lots o rain

Yeh…looks like a warmer month ahead if first half is any indication. Cant wait to see what El Nino December holds

Already in shorts. Beautiful day. Real short-lived cold shot! Onto a beautiful weekend

31F is Hastings. some frost on the roofs and cars.

Ironic paradox: if you freeze tonight, it will be on the early side of normal. But if you don’t freeze tonight, you’re gonna be late. The areas that are predicted to do it are already 40 or below. the areas not predicted to not do it are still in the mid 40s

As is usual last few years, it wont last very long

Too many people in one area. If the BQE didnt tell you that, this is God (or nature) doing it. 40F and rain. Welcome to Nov!

unusual I’m under the freeze watch… but not tonight. tomorrow night. Seems like a lot of notice

I’m glad I didn’t spring for the Giants tickets today. When I looked a week ago, it was supposed to be in the 60s and sunny. Them it was gonna be 80 and sunny. And now it’s 55 and raining.

Are you kidding??