eduggs

I think the GFS OP resolution matters. And I also think the GEFS tend to shift with the OP, rendering them relatively unpredictive of true spread and likely trend. The 18z GFS was pretty ugly. There's still time, but once this gets inside 5 days or so, you don't want to have to rely on massive model errors.

Remember when the GFS op was an extreme outlier with respect to every single GEFS member for run after run in the medium range?... last weekend... How'd that turn out? I have no confidence in the GEFS signaling the correct outcome or even which way to hedge. If the GFS and Euro don't start looking better at H5 by 0z, that should be a caution flag for sure.

I would urge caution with the GEFS. For last weekends inland runner, the GFS was consistently the extreme western outlier against every single GEFS member for run after run at this range. The GEFS failed to signal the correct outcome in this case. I think we need to see the GFS and the Euro make meaningful shifts towards an impactful storm to have any confidence. Right now they are not close.

I'm sure the hills will get at least a few hundredths of QPF. I meant no measurable on the GFS for the coastal plain.

The 18z GFS has literally no measurable precipitation for 2 weeks until it rains.

You find it hard to care about anyone outside of your backyard. We all know that by now. NY also borders three NE States. So the fortunes of people in eastern NY are similar to people in western NE.

Obviously. I was just pointing out that there might not be a lot of wiggle room outside of EMA in case this doesn't end up super tucked.

The 18z ICON is an improvement over 12z aloft. I looks like it would still mostly miss east, but the trof is better for us.

Those few tucked EPS members are pretty compact with the precip. field until the SLP is near the Cape. I'm not sure if places west of the NY border - NYC, POU, ALB - see warnings snows on any of those. Even the CMC was pretty limited on the western quadrant. If the low starts offshore, there is no initial overrunning until you get pretty far east or north.

Looking at 700mb, 850mb, and surface QPF... members 10 and 12 fringe us. 11 and 15 are misses.

Lots of snow reports on mPing in EPA and WNJ. Can the snow showers make it east down into the lowlands...? So far the air is dry and returns are mostly dissipating. HRRR says we wait until this evening for a few brief snow showers.

Yeah maybe. But out of 51 members they're almost all misses. Of course they tend to cluster around the OP, so if the OP shifts west the EPS likely will to. But it goes to show how much further west we need this to shift.

I just checked the EPS. Very few of the individuals get precip. back to us or especially further west. Even the ones where the SLP makes a close pass are pretty limited on the western side. That's what happens if the trof develops late... which is where this looks to be heading. Eastern SNE can pull it off, but we need an explosive trof. Ironically the one EPS member that tilted earlier ended up taking the same track as last weekend that deformed in Ontario.

The JMA is nearly identical to the CMC. It lacks the resolution to show the true lowest pressure, but it's a close match aloft. And it actually lingers a little longer as it moves northeast off the Cape. Huge hit for LI and CT at least. Everyone will say it's just the JMA, but I'll take it. The more support the better. Eventually we need every model to come around.

A storm in early January has no bearing on the likelihood of a storm in February or March. Their probabilities are almost completely independent. Major snowstorms are always unlikely, by definition. But there's probably at least a 1 in 4 chance. And >4" snows can happen in almost any kind of background weather pattern.

Probably. And then we might get our best snows of the year in a "warm" pattern. Sometimes it's just random like that.

SNE will weenie out the longest because they have the best shot if this misses east. They will wishcast with the best of them and call it analysis.

A few weeks ago it was the GFS vs the world. Then the EC vs. the world. And now the CMC takes its turn. I doubt the CMC will hold up resistance as long as the others did, however. It trends to be more variable beyond 5 days. This is a clear miss east for now... but continue to monitor... unless there is a multi-model trend towards more impact.

The Euro is not close. The UK is far off, but not hopeless. GFS is a clear miss but close enough to be interesting. The CMC is nearly perfect but no wiggle room east. I feel like we're always in this position kind of hoping for a miracle.

Agreed. I expect this storm to miss east. The CMC is very sharp and amplified compared to other guidance, but it still isn't expansive with precipitation on the western quadrant. That's a red flag to me. But we haven't had that many fantasy blizzards this year, so it's fun to revel in one for a little while.

The CMC might be the best model run of the winter so far. Snow would start late Friday night and continue for almost 24 hours! Weekend snow! Very heavy snow with major accumulations region-wide. Blizzard conditions probably on LI. It stays cold with a follow-up 2-4" on Monday with an inverted trof associated with a late developing coastal low. Wow what a weenie run! My take is a miss east is favored here. The sharpness, amplitude, and orientation of the trof are very sensitive to minor changes. Eastern SNE seems to stand the best chance for significant precipitation. But seeing this huge solution means we're still in the game I think. Just gotta keep expectations in check.

Truly insane snowfall NYC east on that CMC run. Actually everyone gets heavy snow, but eastern areas are buried! It's nice to see big solutions like this, but obviously we would need a near perfect upper level evolution to get something like this. It's on the table... but so is a complete miss.

The CMC is a very powerful storm. Wow. And it deepens extremely rapidly down into the 960s at a perfect time for us. Sign me up for that solution. Could be rain for eastern sections... not sure yet.

The CMC is wild! Offshore low bends back to clobber coastal upper Mid-Atl through New England. High ceiling but low likelihood solution.

The synoptic setup looks roughly similar to a few misses we've had already this year.