eduggs

Sun shining through the clouds now. Snow melting off the cars. A little warner than I expected this morning.

Stuck in subsidence all day I just want to experience moderate or better snowfall intensity during the daytime at least once this winter! Looks like about 2" on the grass near Morristown.

I'm seeing 4 and 5 inch totals from Warren Co. NJ and parts of EPA. Nice! I guess the good banding was to the west overnight?

I wake up to flurries and a shredded radar while NYC to BOS is dumping This winter... just the same story over and over again At least I got a few inches of paste. Looks really nice.

Not a very good 0z except for maybe the GFS op. The EC could still revive this a little.

A little better than 18z. But still a far cry from last night's 6z or even 12z really. Two steps back, one step forward.

3rd run in a row the RGEM has shifted weaker/east. Not surprising considering the wrapped up coastal hugger on the Canadian at 12z.

The GFS is following the multi-model trend with the stronger northern wave north of MN, but not losing sharpness at the base of the trof. That's what we need.

The 0z ICON is worse for everyone regardless of what the fantasy snow maps showed. Just cycle H5. And trends in the ICON matter. More times than not they match the other models, even if the overall depiction is slightly less accurate on average.

Both the NAM and ICON were slight steps back - especially the NAM. Hopefully it's not indicative of how the rest of 0z will go.

The mini trend is for a flatter southern wave and a stronger, further south, potentially cut off northern wave. I don't think that's going to cut it because the strongest baroclinity ends up offshore. It's difficult to recover from that no matter how strong the northern wave is.

The UK snows for 30+ hours. A weenie can dream.

Look at the UK at H5. Totally different height field compared to GFS and CMC. It drops a PV lobe down into the midwest. Much higher impact potential. I feel like we've seen the UK have these kinds of southern PV solutions in the mid-range before. It looks like a low likelihood outcome. But for now I'll take any model solution that has a higher ceiling than the weak, positively tilted coastal slider that seems predestined.

The CMC is way offshore and not particularly threatening aloft. Not a height field that looks conducive to a significant event.

0z GFS wasn't hopeless. But the midlevel fronto makes it look closer than it is. Hopefully the EC makes a similar shift.

As with just about every storm threat this year, we need the southern vort max to round the base of the trof - we need PVA on the downstream side of the trof to initiate a negative tilt, raise heights downstream sooner, and keep the zone of high baroclinicity closer to the coast instead of offshore. This would enable a SLP center to form in the SE or near the coast instead of offshore. If we have to wait for follow-up northern stream shortwaves to sharpen the trof, the incipient SLP will be too far offshore to have an impact. We're really missing southern stream involvement. This positively tilted, lagging vortmax crap shown on every model is not going to cut it. I think we had an EC run or two a few days ago and a GFS run a day ago that almost worked. But nothing since has really been close.

But what is the correlation coefficient? My guess is the sample sizes are way too small for any confidence in the correlations? How many times have we been in MJO phase 4 in March? And what was the state of the other climate indices? People read way too much into these indices - without understanding statistics or causality.

I'll take a 6 inch snowstorm in a heartbeat. It's been more than 1 full year since my last one.

Lots of stuff has looked good 8-9 days out. We gotta reel it in - bring it inside 5 days to take it seriously.

One month ago that was true. Not anymore. Days are noticeably longer. Spring is near.

Yeah I saw that. H5 looks potentially promising even though ensembles are unexciting. The 12z CMC has it too. Too bad it's so far out.

I'm a little surprised that EWR has rarely gotten more snow than ISP over that stretch, and never by much. I guess it's not far enough NW. Overall the stations are pretty similar most years.

I hate this winter. Still waiting for a solid snow and nothing promising to track. Monday doesn't have much of a ceiling. The wettest models (and ens individuals) are rain. It's a lousy setup. Maybe interior SNE and especially NNE has a shot.

This is an ignorant comment.

Sure looks nasty for ZR in the HV... probably starting well before dawn down to parts of northern Westchester and Rockland. Too bad there are relatively few official reporting stations between POU and ALB.