eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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I think the EC is the best global domain meteorological model in the world. I'd still vote no snowstorm right now if I had to.
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It's not GFS vs Euro. It's snowstorm vs no snowstorm (for us). 1) The no storm idea has support from the CMC, UK, and ICON. And maybe the NAM extrapolated (tenuous). 2) The EC barely gets it done. Even with a very sharp and amplified trof, the heavy QPF is confined to I-95 east. 3) Snowstorms usually don't work out; just basic climo statistics. If something can go wrong, it usually will. There are several potential problems visible on the EC H5 chart that could easily mess this up. We need several key features to cooperate, none of which have support from other guidance.
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Disagree. The GFS is not close. And it's not a track problem. It's a trof problem. If the GFS is close to being correct, we have no east coast storm.
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Whoever is not worried about the GFS not being close does not like snow IMO. I take the other side - I'm definitely concerned. And we don't really have so much time to shift this. By hour 60 it's clear the trof has no chance. Really even by hour 48 it's pretty much toast. So the next few runs of the GFS better start showing some changes or we're into longshot territory. That said, this run was a tiny little bit better than 12z.
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I-80 snow shield in full effect. Protecting us from snow showers.
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It doesn't look like that to me at H5. On the ICON, the southern stream wave never really makes it to the downstream side of the trof to start bending the height lines northeastward in the Gulf coast states. The 18z still looks more like the UK or even GFS to me than the Euro. The ICON still needs a lot of work. The surface map is misleading.
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Actually 4.5 days until snow begins at NYC on the EC.
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The EC starts snow in NYC by midnight Friday night. That's 106 hours out. And the trof that delivers the storm to us is in position by 90 hours. So this is not so long range.
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The CMC has moved away from this kind of solution for the past several cycles. The UK has also trended slightly in the wrong direction IMO. The GFS is not really close and not showing positive signs. We really need to see some movement towards the EC (at least among the ensembles) to allow ourselves to begin getting excited.
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I-95 bullseye. Major snowstorm on the EC.
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That's a great Euro run for the entire mid-Atl and northeast coast. The trof is well aligned and sharper than last run. It's also narrow, with another significant trof right on its heels. So I could easily see this getting pinched off or not working out a bunch of different ways. But for now we see how this can work out very well.
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The EC is looking good through hr 90 at H5. It's pointless to give the play by play, but still fun for the excitement. I've seen enough from this run to be encouraged compared to other mid-range guidance.
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The trend for the 22nd is to de-amplify and weaken the trof. I don't like seeing that. There are plenty more potential threats after that, but that's just more kicking of the can...
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Nobody's giving up. But we still need major model changes to get good snows. Once guidance locks onto a miss solution inside 5 days, the odds start to stack against us. It's been a while since we were in a good spot inside 5 days. It's nice that we haven't been shut out this year. But most everything has been nighttime and just off-center up to this point this year. A daytime, Saturday snow event would be perfect. A GFS trend towards a sharper trof would be huge to see this evening. But I'm not optimistic based on ensembles and what I've seen so far from the UK, CMC, and ICON. I expect the Euro to be fairly far offshore for Saturday too.
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The northern stream storm was too strong this go around. Next weekend it looks too weak. Meet in the middle and we have something.
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The GFS still looks pretty far off at H5. GEFS still unfocused with a broad timeframe of potential threats. I almost feel like we gotta root for the Thursday "anafrontal" event now. It would be great to have a singular significant threat to track this week, but it might never happen. We gotta take what we can get. Even a dusting this evening to freshen up the muck would be great.
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Nice job by some of the models showing the snow gradient. The cold really hung tough to the north. The duration of rain in northern Sussex, Orange Counties etc was really short.
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So far everything looks right on schedule. Anybody calling for an earlier than modeled change-over was wrong.
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Kicking than can... end of the month... February... March...
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Surface temps have looked pretty well-modeled to me, maybe even a touch too cold locally. It did seem like surface temps were a little colder than modeled today to our southwest in VA, MD, SEPA etc. Maybe the interior cold is better than modeled, but the coastal areas seem close to what was expected.
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That's impressive surface cold up there! Much different east of I-287 or south of I-80.
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Sussex and maybe northern Passaic in NJ as well as Orange and maybe northern Rockland in NY should hold pretty long tonight. It looks like anybody southeast of the higher terrain in Morris County NJ will succumb to the warming. There's a pretty strong temp gradient right now across this area.
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Widespread mid and upper 20s in NENJ, even into central Morris County. I was hoping the relatively cold surface temps in MD and SEPA would translate up to our area, but they haven't. It's definitely warmer than I was hoping as the light snow begins. Close proximity to the Ocean.
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I haven't looked in a while. But it sure looks like the 12z NAM - esp 3km - increased frozen amounts in NEPA, NNJ, I-84 corridor etc. That's a major event if correct. The HRRR is still impressive as well. The rain still comes in quickly, so it probably comes down to whether or not the cold can hold on for an extra hour or two. The less wintry RGEM looks closer to what I expect. Weird that the Mesos aren't hitting the ice harder.
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It is eerily similar Almost a perfect overlay if you match up the right time frames. In fact, at quick glance it almost looks like next weekend's storm would be more likely to cut. But most of the vorticity for next weekend is modeled upstream with PVA heading east or southeast. Today the vortmax has rounded the bend and PVA is moving northeastward. Such a subtle difference.
