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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    The cupboard is bare; the pipeline is dry. We just a major snowstorm (for some) now likely followed by two anomalously deep trofs with strong associated SLP. This was our shot.
  2. eduggs
    Could be some wrap around snow showers on Monday
  3. eduggs
    Weirdly warmish January night tonight. Temps are around or slightly above freezing despite mostly clear conditions and light winds.
  4. eduggs
    It does seem like it has been very consistent. But I bet people in eastern OH, WPA, and the southern tier of NY have been feeling like the models have been waffling a lot.
  5. eduggs
    The GFS is nearly identical with the surface pressure field. What is with the obsession with the placement of the L on the map? Do people really not understand what surface pressure means and how there can be several relative minimums?
  6. eduggs
    Base lodge is about 1700', top of lift elevation is about 3200'. Top of Hunter Mountain is 4039'
  7. eduggs
    That's true. But I wasn't even thinking of mountain tops... I was more thinking of towns on or near highways. The town of Hunter is approx. 2000ft asl and a great place for easterly-flow coastals. That's why it's my first choice. But the area near Mt. Pocono is right off I-80 and a little closer, although only about 1200ft or so. Right now you'd have to go out to central or western PA to get into any kind of deform. So Catskills are probably the better choice.
  8. eduggs
    Between I-287 and I-80... maybe even I-78 I definitely think there could be a few hours of snow before any flip. Decent cold in place with a slight upglide into terrain with that wind direction should be sufficient. A relatively early occlusion in VA might actually help us blunt the warm surge slightly. I also think north of the City into Rockland, and parts of Westchester could put down a little snow as well. I agree the duration is likely to be relatively brief. But it could be intense for however long it lasts.
  9. eduggs
    That was the first town that popped into my mind too. Right along a highway. But that shadowing on the GFS QPF map changed my vote.
  10. eduggs
    I haven't experienced legit daytime snow in a while. All of the "events" this year have been at night. Scanning the LR ensembles... a little bit uninspiring ATM.
  11. eduggs
    Agree but that's a valley area. How about one exit earlier at New Paltz and then slightly west up to Mohonk Preserve. Should do really well in this kind of event.
  12. eduggs
    At first I was thinking Sullivan along 17 too. But some guidance is showing shadowing there with such a strong easterly flow. Areas along the eastern edge of terrain should do better.
  13. eduggs
    Without thinking about it too much I'd vote eastern Catskills (e.g., Hunter) or Mt. Pocono, PA as a backup. Long drives though.
  14. eduggs
    The RGEM is still going bonkers with the storm. H5 low in SW VA and SLP way west. Seems we're always rooting for major model busts to get the good stuff.
  15. eduggs
    It's true soundings support snow for much of the event NW of NYC. And that would be a heck of a thump. But I gotta suspect somewhere around 800-850 goes above freezing and a lot of it ends up sleet or ZR. But it definitely could produce warning snows well north and west.
  16. eduggs
    Yup. Miller classification is an oversimplified binary classification system from the 1940s. There's no deep meaning behind it. This was before the satellite era. Meteorological analysis is much more sophisticated these days (outside this forum).
  17. eduggs
    The NAM already looked unfavorable at hr 48. The progression from that point looks fairly reasonable. All guidance is in pretty good agreement.
  18. eduggs
    The 18z NAM is UGLY. Can't buy a positive trend. The inland track is well entrenched.
  19. eduggs
    If we could just figure out why the HP is doing that...
  20. eduggs
    The deform almost gets to Cleveland on the 12z UK. Just light snow accumulations there now. Maybe next run will get them.
  21. eduggs
    Toronto, Rochester, Binghamton, Scranton. Those are the benchmarks for the precipitation shield. Right now we are out way past Toronto, deep into the Canadian interior. That's obviously terrible for us for snow. If we pull that back to Toronto and then Rochester, that would be progress. When Binghamton gets fringed we're probably looking at a west of I-95 special.
  22. eduggs
    Congrats Cleveland? A more impressive phasing each run...
  23. eduggs
    Those individuals look east of where they are shown on other vendor maps. Maybe the map overlay is shifted west?
  24. eduggs
    The ICON was a hair east at 500, 700, 850, surface etc. Other than that (GFS, CMC, RGEM, ensembles) I have not seen any good news on the 12z so far.
  25. eduggs
    Disagree.
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