eduggs

And the southern Piedmont of Virginia

Most models have a little bit of snow on Wednesday for approx. I-84 north, favoring elevation and especially latitude. This has been trending slightly colder for several days. I think it will be tough to accumulate much with a surface low near Lake Ontario... but considering Tue night is likely to be fairly cold, if precipitation comes in a quick burst I think there could be some minor accumulations before the boundary layer quickly warms. A slight model shift colder would help, but guidance has been very consistent curling up this shortwave west of us.

Anybody notice how far south the Wed shortwave has gotten on the GFS? It gets the 500mb 540dm contour all the way down into the Carolinas this run (0z). It's been steadily shifting south for maybe a half dozens runs now. It probably doesn't mean much given the relative short range (and lack of support)... but any further south and northern parts of the region would be in the game for some wintry precip. The Poconos are already in the game. I-84 region is borderline.

It's pretty cool to see embedded bursts of steadier snow with real snowflakes and maybe 1mi visibility. These bursts are evident on radar as parallel bands oriented transverse to the direction of movement. Model soundings were reflective of the low level pixie dust stuff that's forming below the radar beam. But the heavier banded stuff is actually showing up on radar and accumulating.

Pretty snowy night out there. Alternating flurries and light snow with intensity gradually increasing since 9pm or so. Probably a few tenths accumulation on all surfaces... could be some slick spots. Nice job by the hi-res models even days in advance. I'm not sure how well models would have picked this up 15 years ago.

Same here in central Morris County (except for 26F). Been snowing on and off for several hours. Mostly snow grains.

Saturation is below the snow growth zone. The moisture is very shallow. That's probably snow grains and/or ZR. Not impossible a few spots get lucky if lift/saturation is more robust than modeled... seems doubtful for now.

The low level moisture moving in on a SSE flow is already visible on radar off the NJ coast. If it's ZR, I can see short-fused advisories being posted. I hope it's snow/snow grains instead.

The 18z 3km NAM has 0.1" liquid for part of the region tonight. I'm skeptical that it can accumulate much due to snow growth problem. But sometimes these low level lift/crystallization events that linger for several hours over an area can surprise. I'll take the under for now.

Examining model soundings for tonight, it looks like saturation is mostly below the snow growth zone. That suggests maybe freezing drizzle and snow grains.

Cycling through all model guidance from 0z to 12z it's kind of funny to see what looks like a snow force field in effect for our area. Plenty of action but it's either north or south. Hope it changes soon.

The GFS is an outlier with respect to Sun-Mon. There is very little overlap between the EPS/GEPS and the GEFS right now. But... the GFS has trended "better" for a few runs now. Negatives are north SLP track and southerly winds, positives are decent antecedent airmass and potent shortwave.

The RGEM snow accumulation map I showed in now through Saturday. I should have showed the time stamp and duration. There's a weak mid-level shortwave interacting with the offshore SLP. It could generate snow showers on Saturday. I agree that the Friday and Sunday events are frustration.

The RGEM has a little snow early Saturday. It's not much and it will probably shift east or be flurries if it's even real, but it's something...

I read Albany airport is over 14" already this season and they average 3.9" to date. That's a heck of a start! The valley can be a bit of a snow hole with substantially more snow to the east and west. There are indications it might continue for a while. Enjoy it up there.

I remember many winters back through the 90s where there was bare ground through Xmas/New Years even up into the North Country and Vermont... sometimes even in the heart of winter, especially outside the mountains. So far this year it's deep winter throughout the interior. That could be a harbinger of things to come. There's been a bit of a screw zone relative to climo over the past few years from EPA through NENJ and SENY while places north, east, and south have cashed in occasionally. That experience can create a negative bias with respect to future outcomes. But eventually our luck will change despite the warming global climate.

Random observation, but it's been a snowy week in Albany and the upper Hudson Valley. Yes that's far outside our region, but not typically a very snowy area. They got into intense lake effect snow last Fri for several hours then warning snows on Tue and now arctic snow squalls incoming. Hopefully we can spread that love a little further south down the Hudson over the next few weeks.

IMO you have been traumatized by repeated cycles of expectation/hype followed by failure/disappointment. Those "patterns" you speak of were imaginary constructs created by weather hobbyists in an era of 4 times per day models run out to 16 days. Models and certainly meteorologists cannot accurately predict regional weather out past 10 days. So don't be fooled. In the 90s we had a handful of short range models out to 2 or 3 days and a handful of medium range models out to 5 or 7 days. They ran twice a day. People didn't pretend to "see" favorable patterns way out in fantasy range. And hobbyists weren't therefore disappointed by not realizing the imagined potential. It is always hard to get snowstorms near NYC. A lot has to go right for it to happen.

The 12z GFS has shifted a little south and sharper aloft for the Sun-Mon clipper. Looks pretty nice for CNY and NE. Even gets some snow into or close to the City. The shortwave track is pretty far north but the 12z GFS is closest yet to something interesting in that time period. The GFS is not entirely on its own either.

Snow squall warnings currently posted in parts of CNY and NPA. The squalls probably won't hold together as the front slides southward through our area, but there's a small chance.

Thinking Decembers of old were so much colder and snowier is a classic example of rosy retrospection. Yes it used to be colder. If you're 120 years old you might just barely remember when they used to harvest thick blocks of ice on Rockland Lake near Nyack. And yes, we haven't had any huge snowstorms over the past few winters. But as of December 4, this has been a pretty typical fall and winter. We haven't had any major warmups and there are none currently on mid-range guidance. It will be cold enough to snow for much of the next week (as currently modeled) and if we get a little luck, it just might snow. NYC doesn't average a ton of snow in December. The 70s, 80s, and 90s did not feature a lot of snowy Decembers.

Most guidance shifted east with the notoriously fickle inverted trof for Saturday. Can't rule out flurries or snow showers now through Saturday but hard to envision any accumulation ATM. Medium-range models show a parade of potential "threats" but nothing tangible yet. The longwave flow is broadly supportive of wintry threats. The Sun-Mon clipper is first up. Feels like winter... especially in areas with a little snow cover (not far NW of NYC as seen on satellite).

A few more models are picking up possible snow showers tomorrow. The norlun feature on Saturday is also picking up a little more support. I think either feature could surprise with an isolated C-1"... I think there's even a low chance (maybe <1 in 8) of someone picking up 2" on Saturday in a persistent band. Unlikely though but still fun to nowcast if it happens.

There could be flakes in the air on Thurs, Fri, and/or Sat from 3 different mechanisms. After the arctic front passes on Thurs, it should be cold enough everywhere. If the ground gets dusted white you will feel better about winter. The Sat. shortwave probably will only trigger flurries, but it's well positioned with a weak offshore SLP to potentially initiate an inverted trof (norlun) especially for eastern areas/SNE.