eduggs
-
Posts
5,931 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by eduggs
-
The airmass today is actually pretty cold - seasonably cold at least. And yet the warmer spots in the City will tickle 50 and places like Poughkeepsie and Hartford will near or exceed 40. Classic winter feel in the mountains with springtime in the valleys.
-
I thought your language was good. And I'm not trying to talk down - there's plenty I don't know. It's just that at quick glance the plot and summary give the impression that warmer temps cause less snow.
-
I would advise caution here against a misinterpretation of the data. The statistical definition of "explains" means correlation. It is not the same thing as the plain English language understanding of "explains" that implies causation. All we can say from the data is that warmer winters are correlated with less snowy winters. And about half of the correlation can be accounted for by the correlation. But hypothetically, if the root cause is not warm temperatures, but something else related to both variables - say "unfavorable storm tracks" the data might still look exactly like that. In this scenario, a 3rd variable would be causing both warming and less snow even if there were no causal connection between them. I'm not arguing that this is the case... just that we can't really say what is "driving" the decrease in seasonal snow at State College. With this kind of statistical test we can only identify correlations. As an engineer and hydrologist I am a stickler for analytical preciseness. I'm not saying you don't know this. But some might come away believing that State College gets less snow these days because its local climate has warmed
-
Verbatim one of the best 10-day runs of the season. Several snow threats in there. But there are no slam dunks or easy wins in that run. Could be several hits or several misses. Low margins as usual. Before I get excited about the mid- or long-range I'm pulling for a 2-4" event Sunday night.
-
The Ukie is north of 12z too. Gets precipitation to CNJ and tickles the City. Looks better aloft too.
-
It's kind of an interesting scenario because just about all models are trending towards a better phase if you cycle the past 4 runs or so. Even the RGEM and NAM which don't look great at the surface. QPF increases dramatically among the individual ensemble members based on degree of phasing. But as is right now the model consensus is still miss or fringe.
-
The northern stream shortwave on the 18z NAM looks a little better positioned to bring precipitation north at 48 hours.
-
ICON-EPS has about 58% chance of measurable at NYC and 12% 1" liquid. That's a relatively small spread between the extreme outcomes. AIFS-EPS has only 2% chance of 1" of liquid. That continues the theme of a likely miss but small chance of a big hit. Kind of unusual at this short lead time over the past 5 years.
-
The SLP strength and position on Sun night is highly sensitive to the strength/position of the minor shortwave in the northern stream flow. That's why the globals have been jumping around with the degree of phasing, notably and uncharacteristically the AIFS. It's also why a few individual ensemble members, especially a few days ago, showed big QPF numbers while the majority were light or complete misses. This setup is a little unusual for this winter in that we do have a strong southern stream wave traversing the country. It wouldn't take much northern stream interaction at all to get light to moderate precipitation up to at least CNJ. You gotta think the chances of precipitation in NYC are low, but it's the kind of setup that could change quickly in the short term.
-
The 18z EPS-AIFS are very snowy, which is suspicious. A few of the individuals continue to show a high end snowstorm, which skews the mean, but even the median is decent for snow. It's strange considering how far off most guidance looks in the upper levels from supporting a coastal SLP. It looks like there is a lot of sensitivity with respect to phasing of the northern stream. And a small amount of phasing could lead to a significant surface response.
-
The elevation of downtown Albany is between about 150ft and sea/river level. The airport (NWS) is just below 300ft. The City is noticeably warmer than the towns on the escarpment to the west or the Taconics to the east. Most of the true HV is actually below 500ft. You are in the Hudson Highlands. But of course most people refer to the entire region, hill country or valley, as the HV.
-
It's just a word. Everybody has their own definition. For me, the key distinction is whether snow/ice is increasing or decreasing on the whole (or if it could with precipitation). That takes into account all the factors that play into winter like diurnal temp ranges and sun angle. When net snow starts to decrease, I call that spring. For other people, maybe if it can snow and is occasionally below freezing, then it's still winter (e.g., Nov or April). I've lived in both Boston and Albany. Boston Logan (where NWS measurements are taken) is warmer and less snowy than most people who don't live there think due to the marine influence. The airport is on a man-make island out in the harbor. The NWS station doesn't get a ton of snow because of that, unlike places just to the north or west of Boston. But Boston does get the occasion big snowstorm. Albany, by comparison, gets fewer big events but more small events. Albany often avoids the chilly backdoor cold fronts that Boston experiences in April.
-
I'm not sure what you consider "damn cold." But average highs are in the 40s beginning around the first of March. Snow typically doesn't linger long, except during unseasonably cold periods. Maybe compared to NJ you remember it as having been cold, but climatologically/typically spring comes relatively quickly near sea level all the way up the Hudson Valley in March.
-
The small number of very high QPF individual ensemble members for this weekend's event suggests a very low likelihood but high ceiling threat.
-
I did for many years. And late Feb was often the time where it began to feel Spring-like in many years. Its low elevation and tendency to downslope makes it a warm location relative to the surrounding hills.
-
March has a very different feel to the other months. Temperature-wise it's like late Nov into early December but with a much higher sun angle. So yes it can snow, but it almost always melts quickly. Elevation makes more difference in March too. Albany, NY tends to switch to Spring pretty quickly in March most years, while the high country of southern VT and the Catskills can still feel like deep winter. It's very location dependent but almost always categorized by freeze-thaw, mud, and residual salt grime.
-
Get outside and enjoy it out there on the Twin Forks! These types of mesoscale powder snow events don't happen often.
-
Where I am we had a dusting from many hours of pixie dust. It mostly sublimated on contact. Whatever fell is long gone.
-
I love these kinds of snow events that ELI, ECT, EMA, and RI are seeing this morning. High-end mesoscale/nowcast events that are highly localized and you don't know exactly what to expect. Cold and powdery snow too! Just one event like that would go a long way to easing the pain of the only two decent wintry events of the winter shifting warmer in the mid-level over the last 48 hours such that half the precipitation fell as IP/ZR. I still haven't recovered from those. It would really only have taken one plowable snow event on top of the glacier to do the trick I think. But nothing has really worked out favorable since the 3 hour snow event on Jan 17.
-
It's been a real struggle to get any snow threats inside 10 days since Jan 25. Nothing has broken right for us for two weeks. We can't even buy a good snow shower despite unrelenting cold. The midweek threat is gone and the weekend threat is looking shaky. A cold, windy day like today only rubs salt in the wound without fresh snow and/or a trackable threat. The vibe and feel of this winter changes quickly as you go from SNJ through NENJ to CT and then EMA. South of CNJ this has been a cold but mostly snowless winter. But once you cross into CT and SNE in most areas this has been a downright snowy winter.
-
It's been below average cold for a solid 3 weeks right through the heart of winter. The mix event on January 25 was a lot of fun, but this period will be remembered for its cold not for its snow.
-
The blinds were closed for a week and I just peaked out to see the UKMET still showing less than 0.1" liquid through the end of its run. The CMC has a few tenths through day 10 but it's rain. And no consensus among the other models for a clear threat through the mid-range. I really hope it won't be another close-the-blinds week.
-
The ensembles suggest multiple waves days 5-12. But the spread-out nature of the QPF suggests disagreement about timing and significance of each in succession. I don't believe we have a clear signal yet for specific storm events or dates. The most tangible is the first, mid-week wave but even this nearer threat is still evolving.
-
Yeah basically 72 consecutive hours of precipitation - mostly snow! It ejects a bigger piece of the Pacific trof hitting CA day 4 out ahead of the consolidated ULL. This evolution doesn't have much support unfortunately among the other models save for maybe a few GEFS members. The height field evolution across the northeast days 4-6 is also very different from model consensus right now. I expect a lot of run to run variability for next week for the next few days. I don't like seeing the 2/11 wave trend a little warmer in recent runs across most guidance.
-
Great table. Perfectly illustrates March outside the hill country. 4 major snow events got obliterated within days in an exceptionally snowy March. I'm sure it was a lot of fun while the snow was falling. But the vibe is very different in March than it is in early February.
