eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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Great table. Perfectly illustrates March outside the hill country. 4 major snow events got obliterated within days in an exceptionally snowy March. I'm sure it was a lot of fun while the snow was falling. But the vibe is very different in March than it is in early February.
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I think the median 30-year March snowfall at NYC is about 1.5". The mean, which is skewed by a few snowier years, is about 4". Certainly areas outside NYC can do better. But March 2018 comes around once every 50 years. Sadly, March 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 are far more common.
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Yeah the AI models look like early 90s MRF. But they would wipe the floor with that model. Day 10 AI verification is similar to 120hr MRF in the old days. Lower (output) resolution doesn't really harm their ability to capture synoptic progression because they are not directly physics-based. The visual of low resolution biases our perception of their worth. You really should look at them more. The ECMWF-AIFS is also getting a resolution upgrade I think.
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I think people forget how warm March has gotten around here. It almost never snows outside the mountains in March these days. And on the uncommon occasions it does, it melts in a day or two. I think we need winter to deliver in February, preferably the first half. Technically it can snow right into April, but climate norms and sun angle get hostile to the winter vibe really fast after mid-Feb. near the coast at 40 degrees north.
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As we get nearer, the long-range appears to be adjusting a little colder in the modeling, as it has most of the winter. The AI models seem to be leading the way. We'll see where we are in about a week... maybe we can stay on the cold side of the boundary. Total wild card with the PNA ridge breaking down. Historically that would signal springlike weather but the tenor of this winter with the neg NAO and Atlantic pattern could mitigate that. Fingers crossed.
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The key aspect of this winter that has made it satisfying for me was the back to back ~3" events on Sat/Sun the 18th/19th and then the warning snow/ice the following weekend. That was a lot of weekend, daytime snow in a short period... so lots of winter recreation opportunities during falling snow. The Jan 25th event by itself with 7 hours of snow followed by 7 hours of mix would have left me wanting more. We wait for the entire year for just a few hours to enjoy being outside during a snowstorm. So when it doesn't deliver that experience, the disappointment of having to wait another year can be significant.
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Even a few 1" refreshers would have gone a long way during this period. This winter has clearly been better than the last several, but the two sleet events have tainted the vibe in NJ relative to areas east (NYC/LI) and north (LHV).
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The AI models have performed really well this winter IMO, especially synoptically. They vary run-to-run a lot less than their parent physics-based models. It's becoming less likely for a surprise snowstorm to appear inside 7 days. That's a good thing for forecast accuracy, but a discouraging thing when the forecast looks unfavorable.
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It's kind of impressive how the Euro OP manages to engineer a way to avoid snow for the next 15 days. Barely a dusting in 2+ weeks. And it has support from the other globals and ensembles. In November, sure... but early Feb?!
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All good points. But it's difficult to force the enjoyment when we're staring at such a bleak two weeks of modeling. After mid-Feb a sunny day inevitably feels like Spring, even on a cold day.
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It's really a shame to waste 3 weeks of peak winter climo to drought. By the time the longwave suppression eases we'll be fighting climo norms.
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Normals at NYC on Feb 28 are 45/32. Spring is coming fast.
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The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. Almost all rain
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The GFS is bringing down the ULL at day 5 pretty far west. Could be interesting for New England days 6 and 7.
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Close the blinds. But is it for one week or two?
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This winter feels much better than last year. But my location hasn't been lucky snow-wise since 2021
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The AI models have been pretty insistent that when precipitation finally returns around day 9, it's rain. I don't buy it yet because guidance has been too quick with warmups this winter. But there sure has been a lot of wasted cold this season.
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Yeah it's up to 0.05" now in a few spots. But there has been no improvement in the height field in Ontario for several days. The RRFS dropped off at 18z. I was hoping this could trend into a 2-3" plowable event but it's settling into a C-1". And there's not much behind it. Super-suppressive northwest flow.
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So far at 18z the models are engineering a perfectly dry week with the bowling ball ULL and a follow up shortwave traversing southern ON to NNY perfectly suppressing any storm threats.
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Cold, windy, dry.
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The GEFS, GEPS, EPS, ICON-EPS, EPS, GFSAI, ECMWF-AIFS and EPS-AIFS are all very dry out through 10 days. That has been the theme of this winter apart from last weekend.
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Both the GFSAI and ECMWF-AIFS bring some rain beginning Feb 10. It's a persistent signal. No telling if it fades and/or is transient. In a few days we'll have a better idea if the cold will linger through that period.
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The Wednesday shortwave has been ticking slightly more favorable across multiple guidance for several runs. The height field has been gaining every so slightly more meridional angle as it crosses south of us. The ULL in Ontario is a shame, but we might we able to trend this to a plowable event for some. Without that, there's nothing distinct on the horizon for a while. And spring is looming out in fantasyland.
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GFS-AI is miss, miss, rain. GFS is miss, miss, cold. But both are close to back to back hits. With the reliability of the ECM-AIFS, which is also showing essentially a miss, miss scenario next week, that should probably be the baseline for expectations until things look more hopeful. It's definitely not a close the blinds week though, fortunately.
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Yuck.
