Jump to content

Chicago Storm

Professional Forecaster
  • Posts

    18,170
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Chicago Storm

  1. The severe threat just isn’t going to work out around here today. I was optimistic leading in to today, but it’s pretty clear the lack of shear will mitigate any real threat. The main disturbance ended up rapidly push NE up towards Lake Superior today. What’s left is an outflow dominant line of storms.
  2. SPC did a downright horrible job yesterday. Not only how they handled outlooks, but also watch issuance. Goes to show how reliant on CAM’s they are. CAM’s showed absolutely nothing yesterday, even while the even was unfolding. The HRRR really didn’t catch on until around noon in showing anything.
  3. As of now it looks like 4 tors confirmed from yesterday. 1 near Hinckley, 2 near Manhattan and 1 near Rantoul. With better lapse rates and a bit more shear/CAPE, definitely could have been a much more significant event.
  4. Looks like a ROM marginal risk day, unfortunately.
  5. Looks like this season will come down to June. Given trends and what has happened thus far, one can't really be that excited, but we'll see...
  6. There really wasn't any tor potential today...But I ended up drifting west for the heck of it this afternoon, and ended up on the supercell that moved near DKB. Encountered a lowering, though not much rotation. It did have some mid-level rotation at the time per radar though. Also picked up some dime size hail.
  7. Decent CAPE/DP/Lapse Rates/Shear combo today, which should lead to scattered severe storms this afternoon/evening. Few OFB's around from overnight/morning activity as well.
  8. As expected, tonight is not slight worthy. Tomorrow night and Monday look much more interesting.
  9. I agree with elevated hailers for Saturday night, as well as tonight...but it’s more marginal worthy. .
  10. The slight risk this far west is definitely overdone.
  11. Today kind of went as expected...Nothing too significant, and just scattered severe storms. The lack of shear prevented things from getting going earlier severe wise, and storms being sustained as well...Especially prior to this evening.
  12. My guess is they’re doing it until the full spread of D2 graphics eventually come. .
  13. Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May... Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond. LR GFS, but it shows it as well... .
  14. Still 4-5 days out, but things are trending less favorable with time for anything decent on Thur/Fri.
  15. Is there potential, yea. But it's too far out to get too interested, especially given several fail options on the table.
  16. Indeed. Obviously way out, but I'd like to hit them all.
  17. Temp change at Carbondale, IL (KMDH) was well defined...
×
×
  • Create New...