Chicago Storm

18z Euro with another step back.

GGEM and Euro took a step back. It's gonna be hard to get anything really good out of the setup, given where the main PV lobe is located up over the Hudson, combined with +PNA in place. The new 12z ECMWF/GGEM runs are probably the best case scenario. I'd hedge somewhere between them and what the GFS has for now.

Hittin' it on a Tuesday morning, huh?

Yes. .

Still waiting for TH to make a valid point.

This RI we’re seeing now that the storm is moving over the Gulf Stream is unfathomable.

Questionable at best. .

turtlehurricane gonna be waiting a bit for that RI. .

Lookin’ pretty dire. How much for metfan? .

Man, that due W wobble must mean it’s gonna hit MIA. .

Love these ‘canes that get hyped and then go OTS. .

Looks like this season will come down to June. Given trends and what has happened thus far, one can't really be that excited, but we'll see...

Neither of those are really "day of" issues though.

Odds are there will be some sort of severe in the Plains towards the first days of May... Still a long way out obviously, but that should be the first potential...with more at or just after mid-month and beyond. LR GFS, but it shows it as well... .

See you in June.

Looks like weatherbell.

.

0z GFS with the best looking potential of the season, with two quality Plains days next Wed/Thur. While it definitely looks like there will be severe in the Tue-Sat timeframe, potential multiple waves with non-stop convection and meridional flow issues are concerning at this range.

It's not good for anyone who missed the good days during that active week in late-May, as that's the only time this season really produced. Looks like the traditional chase season will end as it started. We'll see if there's any surprise events between now and the fall season.

Change that to Tuesday and Thursday-Sunday and I agree.

The first trough (Sat-Mon) is meh in terms of potential, but it does help with moisture return for the 2nd trough (Tue/Wed). As mentioned above by others, Tues looks sig on both the GFS/ECMWF. Still 6 days out, so we'll see how it progresses.

Current period (4-6th) isn't too interesting, and I suspect the 7-10th will prove to be the same. Saturday obviously has the highest potential of any day between now and Sunday, but I'm leaning heavily towards it being underwhelming due to early/morning initiation.

Don't expect another worthy chase day for me until mid-month. Upcoming pattern until that point really doesn't look like anything more than run of the mill sort of events, though as Brett stated, something interesting could pop up on short notice.

It's good to hear you're alright, JoMo.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 400 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 ...EF-4 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN JOPLIN... * DATE...22 MAY 2011 * MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-4 * ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...198 MPH * ESTIMATED PATH WIDTH...3/4 MILE * FATALITIES...116 * INJURIES...400 * THIS PRELIMINARY INFORMATION WAS DETERMINED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY TEAM AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DATA.