Chicago Storm

The 0z ECMWF is a mega big dog. ~1.20" QPF and ~24" here and ORD.

0.5" at ORD thus far. Has been rain there for a while now too.

2.0" here. Snow has turned to all rain now.

He was next level optimistic. Good people.

Make that 50dbz snow here now.

40dbz snow here...Huge golf ball sized flakes, with some around 2" in diameter.

Turned from FZRA to snow here about 2 1/2 hours ago. It's mostly been light, but did have a period of borderline heavy snow. Final ice accumulation will go down as 0.15", with 0.7" of snow thus far.

CC suggests it rain or mix there.

https://weather.cod.edu/analysis/

0.15" ice accrual here so far. Biggest ice event in years here.

Given axis orientation, what you get at home should be about the same as at work.

It's early, precip still has a long way to go to fill in.

You shouldn't be shocked. This is like clockwork when there's strong WAA.

Temps around 32 now for southern CWA.

The really sharp cutoff will be around DeKalb up to Fox Lake it looks like, for now.

Temps are definitely warming ahead of the pace as shown on colder guidance. The HRRR is pretty close to what's actually being realized, so I see no reason to deviate from it's output for now...And it's actually a bit too cold in some locations. Thus, still looks like front end mix (mostly FRZRA), before turning to plain rain for most the the area for the heart of the storm, then ending as a bit of snow. 0.10"+ ice, 1" snow and a lotta rain at ORD is the call. Looks like a nice hit for snow up by DBQ and RFD, with 6-12".

Glaze of ice on all surfaces with FZDZ/-FZRA here this morning.

If the NAM/UKMET score here, well, I'm going to be hella wrong.

Interesting setup right now with LES... You have a meso-low near downtown, with the convergence boundary extending SW from there, moving NW. This is going to help pull LES as far inland as LaSalle and DeKalb CO’s. .

A non-NAM solution is the way to go, which means some snow/freezing rain on the front end, before a switch to all rain for the rest of the event. I’m not buying into the more southern/weaker solutions, and I’m definitely not buying into the nonsense the NAM is showing. We’ve seen this all before where some models think enough cold air will hang on, and people believe it because of a snow pack in place to the south, only for WAA to win anyway. This will be no different. .

They’re done until tomorrow night. As per usual, the band progressed eastward faster than expected, and didn’t organize until later than expected. .

There’s been LES as far south as CMI tonight. .

ORD is at 5" so far, pending LES.

6.7” here for synoptic snows. Probably will get in a bit on LE eventually. .

It’s been sitting up there all night. .