Chicago Storm

That axis of snow last night and this morning from W IL into N IL ended up much more narrow than pretty much any model showed, even the NAM's, which usually do a fairly good job with banding. All guidance did a terrible job on amounts, and even QPF as well. Based on reports, it looks like the main axis was ~15mile wide with 1-3.5", and a DAB surrounding that.

They were all overdone. .

0.9” ORD so far. Breaks record for the date of 0.7” (1923). .

Truth. I mean half of that is from tonight alone.

More like hours out at this point.

18z Euro has an axis of 6-11" tonight across portions of N/C. IL. Then wraps up the system on Thursday, with another more widespread 3-7".

18z Euro...

A few stats I pulled for nearby areas. Based on guidance, many of these are in play...and some an easy lock. .....Chicago..... Snowiest October Days: 3.8" - 10/19/1989 & 3.0" - 10/20/1952 Snowiest Halloween: 0.1" - 2014 Snowiest Octobers: 6.3" - 1989 & 4.4" - 1967 .....Rockford..... Snowiest October Days: 5.0" - 10/23/1929 & 2.0" - 10/27/1925 + 10/29/1917 Snowiest Halloween: 0.1" - 2014 Snowiest Octobers: 5.0" - 1929 & 3.0" - 1917 .....Moline..... Snowiest October Days: 6.5" - 10/26/1967 & 2.9" - 10/25/1898 Snowiest Halloween: T - 1954/1939/1926/1918/1917/1908 Snowiest Octobers: 6.6" - 1967 & 2.9" - 1898 .....(Already at 1.1" on this month to date) .....Peoria..... Snowiest October Days: 3.3" - 10/23/1929 & 1.9" - 10/29/1925 Snowiest Halloween: T - 1918 Snowiest Octobers: 3.3" - 1929 & 1.9" - 1925 .....Milwaukee..... Snowiest October Days: 3.7" - 10/18/1989 & 2.6" - 10/20/1989 Snowiest Halloween: 0.4" - 1926 Snowiest Octobers: 6.3" - 1989 & 4.0" - 1976 .....(Already at 0.3" on this month to date)

Pulling a bunch of stats right now for select cities in the area...and as modeled, this is going to be a historic/record breaking event.

Won't even need much wind, given the leaf situation as of now. Probably will be tree damage tonight alone if there is an axis of 3-6".

There's no flooding to track.

Easy over a DAB. .

I can’t read confirmed. .

Backing off that 1-2” call, huh? .

Seems to be the new trend with guidance, as the 12z Euro is following...though not to as severe of a degree.

ORD finished with 2.22”. .

Seems way over-done based on surrounding reports.

1.54” ORD now. Very efficient rainfall for sure. High PWAT’s from Olga are doing work. .

Same here further northwest. There has been higher leaf drop here today with the rain, so I’m sure that is definitely playing a roll. Especially since we’re only sitting at just over 1” here. .

Long track of high winds and wind damage along the track of the COC of Olga. Still not sure why things are being treated as severe t’storms though. .

Side note, I find it funny that NWS is issuing severe t’storm warnings, instead of general wind headlines. .

The COC is holding together fairly well, and actually looks better than it did when it made landfall. There has also been widespread high winds/damage near the COC. Tupelo, MS gusted to 71MPH a bit earlier. .

Probably deserves its own thread, especially considering the rarity. .