Chicago Storm

Finished with 0.44" ice accrual and 2.1" snow at ORD. Finished with 0.35" ice accrual and 1.5" snow here.

It's how they handled the headlines, and handled things as the event unfolded. Outside of that, they were on point leading up to the event. I'm not the only one that felt that way, even internally. I just obviously freely voice my opinion more.

Not on here, no. Just some trolling cyclone on his low calls luck. And actually yes, forecasts evolve. It's called observational forecasting. Kind of like what others (NWS offices) did as well, just a day late and a dollar short for some of them. Maybe you'll learn that one day, and in turn, can come up with better responses.

Not too far off, and in line with guidance at that time. How about posting the evening update too.

Yep, thanks for proving my point.

You might have had a point, if I had actually made one.

Can't wait for the FV to replace the GFS and NAM. Gonna be fun times.

Power outage numbers around N. Illinois keep bouncing up and down, as crews try to catch up and new outages roll in. Sitting at ~14k right now.

Truth hurts.

I'd say we only lost a minimal amount here, and the temp never got above 33 either. I noticed that it appears taller/mature trees further off the ground didn't really lose anything at all.

With the temps dropping, winds increasing and still a good amount of ice on trees...starting to see a lot of small branches coming down now.

With temps still only 32/33 around the area and slow melting, things are looking prime for tree damage/power outages. .

That’s not how you forecast though. You have to go with model guidance, and forecast based off of that. You can’t just go off of a hunch, that’s not how it works. Cyclone has low-balled his area every storm this season, except for this one. The problem is offices stuck with their original forecasts and did not alter things until it was much to late, LOT most significantly. It was pretty clear by 6-7PM that this was going to be an ice event for most areas and not a bigger snow or sleet event. However, LOT for example didn’t really catch up until several hours later. While NAM performed the best, it was even way off...with the snow/freezing rain line having made it into S. Wisconsin and north of DBQ. The warm “wedge” aloft was actually deeper and warmer than modeled by any guidance as well. .

Easily the most significant ice storm I can remember here. Trees are caked, saggy and straining. If this ice remains on the trees several hours from now when the winds pick up, tree damage and power outages will be widespread. .

Significant icing on trees around here now, many being weighed down. They're not even moving too much in a 10-20mph breeze from time to time either. Icing on pretty much all surfaces, with it stuck at 31/29 for several hours now.

LOT finally added the additional counties I mentioned earlier to the ice storm warning, and upped ice totals to 0.50"...which will probably still be low in a few areas, but beter off than before.

Started off as snow/sleet here early this evening for an hour or two, but has been FZRA ever since then. .

Would have northern tier in WSW.

Would have included Cook, DuPage, Will and Grundy as well.

That new LOT ice storm warning will already be busting before too long. Calling for 2-5" of fantasy snow, and 0.30" ice...which will be reached not too long from now in many areas.

LOT finally upgrades to ice storm warning for some counties, but still missed some.

Not only is LOT doing a horrendous job, but DVN is following as well. Ice accums by GBG have exceeded the forecast and are in warning criteria range now. .

This is just about as good as a set-up I've seen around here for sig ice across a good portion of the area. Given those earlier reports near GBG of 0.20", it should be fairly easy to get into at least the middle of that range.

Likely going to see an axis of 0.25-0.75" ice across Northern Illinois somewhere.

0.20" ice accrual report NE of Galesburg already.