Chicago Storm

This thread may get some work soon…


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I don't think anyone had forecasted this month finishing with near +15 departures for any region, yet that appears likely to be the case for the far northern tier of the CONUS. Also, Christmas this year looks to feature temps running 20 degrees or more above average for a large section of the country that happens to include much of this subforum, so "mild" is a bit of an understatement.

There were some snow showers/squalls that moved through the area yesterday morning/afternoon, associated with the ULL/cold front that swept through the region.

The snow didn't amount to anything more than a trace at ORD, but some other areas picked up a few tenths of accumulation.

Yeah SSWE is predicted but where does the cold go? Thats the question.


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On 12/15/2023 at 9:47 PM, DocATL said:

No guarantees that a SSWE will occur and furthermore lead to wide spread cold in NA. The MJO isn’t great early January and with our luck could be low amplitude.


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SW is most definitely going to occur, and the MJO is most definitely going to exit the COD somewhere into the 8-2 phase range (But yes, at low amplitude).

I know Ricky briefly touched on part of it...But why has it been so consistently mild/warm, and why will it generally continue into late month?

The combination of a bigly/massive Pac jet, the MJO progressing through warmer phases, and the lack of consistent blocking of some sorts.

Changes are in the future, though, including some significant stratospheric warming on deck. Will touch on that early next week...

Winds of change are on the horizon…


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Judah firing warning shots in his latest blog. Winter cancel perhaps?


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looking like the palm tree will go un-boxed into january.

this will be the first such time since i've had it, which dates back to 2008 or so.

Solid agreement on ENS means for two weeks out.

Merry Christmas.






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My in-depth thoughts...

Punt till January.

I'd have waited another day or so on this one, due to the pattern.

The 18z GFS is what you'd expect to get in this progressive pattern for much of our region...a glorified FROPA.

15 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

A dusting to 1.5" of snow is still on tap area wide through the morning, with the disturbance/storm system moving through.

0.3" ORD, 0.1" MDW and 0.7" RFD with the snow overnight/this morning.

A dusting to 1.5" of snow is still on tap area wide through the morning, with the disturbance/storm system moving through.

For the stuff that isn't thread worthy...

I wouldn't get too caught up in the potential revolving around next weekend for several more days.

We're shifting into a fairly progressive pattern, and there are several pieces that need to be well placed for things to work out.

Guidance is a go for now...We'll see how things look come Wednesday/Thursday.

8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Just a day ago models were cutting off a big upper low in the southwest US.  Today they are shooting the energy eastward through the midwest.  We'll likely see it flop all over the place through mid next week.

Everything favors a progressive pattern, so I wouldn't expect to see that cutoff idea come back and see reality.

1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

It’s November. You’re always going to have a serious NW shift once sampling occurs

that makes zero sense.

We'll be kicking off the calendar flip from November to December with a pattern that actually has some potential if you're looking for wintry weather. The main question is...Will it produce?

We are quickly transitioning from one major pattern shift, which is bringing the current wintry period, to another major pattern shift. Similar to the current pattern, this next change will also be fairly short in duration, lasting only a week or so. This new pattern is very complex, blocky, and active all in one. We are seeing a fast-developing, potent -NAO ridge in the vicinity of Greenland, with a PV lobe trapped beneath it, anchored around the Hudson. Further west and south, we will be seeing a formidable -PNA develop for a time, with a fair bit of troughing in the west and also a slight flexing of the Southeast ridge.

The -NAO/Hudson PV lobe combo will keep cold temperatures within reach and keep any potential activity from being too far northwest, while the Western troughing will provide numerous disturbances that will eject out across the country. On paper, this period has potential, but at the same time, it has the same amount of potential to feature strung-out/flat messes as well. In other words, keep a watch on things and don't rule out a surprise.

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

early winter cading, brutal

it snowed two days ago.

Haven't had much time to discuss it, but as hinted to in a response to a post from Josh post about two weeks ago, after Thanksgiving was a period to watch for wintry conditions...and that is indeed what we have seen unfold.

This wintry period is a product of a potent -NAO and Alaskan ridge pairing, which dislodged a PV lobe, sending it south and anchoring around the Hudson. Albeit brief, this is a fairly significant pattern shift than has been seen this new season thus far.

We have another significant pattern shift already in the process of unfolding. Will have more on that tomorrow...

On 11/26/2023 at 12:13 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Total of 1.8” at ORD as of noon, which will likely be the final storm total.

Eyeballing ~1.5-2” here at home

1.8" was indeed the final storm total at ORD.

0.8" at MDW and 1.5" at RFD.

Total of 1.8” at ORD as of noon, which will likely be the final storm total.

Eyeballing ~1.5-2” here at home


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The first widespread event of the season is on tap for tonight and Sunday, across a decent chunk of the sub-forum.

Guidance has trended towards slightly better phasing between the southern trough/wave coming out of the Plains and a northern trough/wave along the Canada/Northern Plains border.

Looks like a widespread 1-3” event.

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Wednesday and Thursday featured top notch weather around here for a week before Thanksgiving, with both days featuring  highs in the mid-60's and ample sun.

We've reached the point where there's an abnormal amount of foliage still lingering, some of which is still green. Even with the cool down coming for a period of time after Thanksgiving, it's looking likely we'll be still carrying some foliage, some green, on into early December.