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Chicago Storm

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    1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    RRFS is cheeks

    Although NAM is also cheeks in its own ways

    Feels like a one step forward one step backward kind of tradeoff (although turning off most of the HREF members and going to the REFS is an additional step backwards IMO)

    The whole thing is a shit show, quite honestly.

    I get what they are doing and why they are doing it. However, your new model system (RRFS/REFS) really should be much better than your old model system (NAM/SREF), which hasn't had an upgrade in many years.

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    1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, OHweather said:

    Just a few random thoughts...there've definitely been small but additive bumps SE over the last several runs of the non-GFS guidance. It's largely been caused by the PV over the Upper Midwest/Plains ahead of the storm refusing to lift out at all, along with subtle trends for perhaps a slower ejection of the storm into the Plains (lets the PV press in more ahead of it) and some lingering run-to-run disagreement over how well the storm phases over the southern Plains. Overall, I don't expect more than relatively small adjustments from here on in, but a quick look at how guidance has been trending and what still could change in my eyes...

     

    This is the European ensemble mean 500mb heights for the last several runs valid at 12z Sunday. There still are subtle run-to-run adjustments both with the exact placement of the PV and with how well-phased the trough ejecting into the Plains is...to me, the there haven't been substantial trends either way with the PV while the trough has trended perhaps a bit less phased overall. Heights are still rising plenty ahead of the storm and there may be room for a subtle trend back northwest if we see a better phase, but unless we see trends towards the PV lifting out quicker I don't think it makes a huge difference for those who are on the outside looking in for heavy snow.

     

    This is just the 500mb height and vorticity trends from the operational Euro...there are not clear trends towards a more or less phased solution overall, though there may be a slight trend for the trough to eject into the Plains slower, which in theory could give the PV a little more of a chance to press in ahead of it. 

     

    The red circles are the main pieces of energy phasing together with this storm...the Baja low and shortwave diving into Canada have not been fully sampled yet, but will becoming increasingly sampled in the next sets of 0z/12z runs. There may be some opportunity for trends regarding how well the storm phases over those next cycles, though my guess is there won't be a significant trend either way. The shortwave circled in blue isn't really phasing into this, but will help dictate how much the PV presses into the upper Midwest/Plains Lakes north of the storm. My guess is we won't see a notable trend with the PV from here on out, though I've been surprised before. 

    Overall, I think it's the PV over the Plains that is skunking those who needed more of a NW trend than we got and it doesn't seem like that's changing as the storm becomes more imminent. There is still room for subtle trends based on a quicker/slower phase, though any northwest trends won't be huge. It wouldn't shock me if there's enough bump SE before we're done, though I personally don't want that if we can avoid it... 

    solid assessment, as always.

    are you still at cle?

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    1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, and OH

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

    From our friends at BAM Weather (I know many dont care for them)

    Upon deep dives hi-res US models are overdoing the strength of the high pressure in the northern plains. It stems from the GFS as these hi-res models are all inner nested versions of the GFS. This can make all the difference in the world for these fringe locations of snow/sleet/ice/rain! Summed up? ECMWF/GDPS/UKMET is the answer.

    Thoughts??

    that idea is already a bust, since all other guidance caved to the gfs.

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