Chicago Storm

3 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

IWX obviously isn't bailing due to the south trend, mainly because of their thought that we are still in the game south of 30 with the warm front, as you alluded to earlier. From discussions, I got the idea that they aren't very happy with SPC's demoting us to slight, but of course they won't come out and say it, hence their post.

they might want to do another check on observations (radar, satellite, surface obs), because it is definitely over north of us24.

3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Reverse jinx. 
 

THIS IS OUR MOMENT 

not this time, that was a real call for a change.

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

Actually asking. What is the effect of the tropical storm going to have on this? It has to have some impact I feel like it’ll steal some energy, no? Nobody seems to be talking about it and I’m legit asking 

G78MPH in Cedar Rapids with the bow.

tbh, i believe tomorrow will pale in comparison to last thursday in illinois.

that's my hunch.

Can't get anyone to cover me tomorrow, so I'll be missing chasing this one, just as I missed last Thursday's event.

Time for some reverse-jinxing to pull stuff north once again, to make it interesting locally.

11 hours ago, Baum said:

Seems awhile since we’ve had a cool wet June around here.

The only thing is, this isn't a cool June.

June is running +4.0 at ORD through the 14th.

First 90°+ day of the year on Wednesday at ORD and MDW, with a high of 91° at both locations.

...2026 90°+ Day Tally...
3 - ARR
1 - ORD
1 - MDW
1 - RFD
1 - PWK
1 - LOT
1 - UGN
0 - DPA

Ended up having a supercell quickly develop over DuPage County last evening, which then moved through ORD. There was a transient wall cloud at times with it as it approached from the southwest, as the storm interacted with an OFB and briefly tried to be interesting.

Janky LL lapse rates and a warm nose aloft will be the bullet in today in the favorable corridor.

13 minutes ago, Tim from Springfield, IL said:

Good call on including Springfield in the watch even though none of Sangamon County falls within the watch box.  (Same with Morgan and Scott counties as well). 

sangamon county is in the watch. springfield can't be in the watch if sangamon county isn't.

Rapid recovery occurring across the southern half of the DVN CWA.

There's not a single 12z CAM that has a handle on evolution of the initial MCS.

If this initial MCS stays further south, you think the warm front may be closer to I-80 corridor or even further south for the next round? LOT AFD sort of alludes to this.

I believe we will see some changes regarding expectations for today.

Let the HRRR catch up to reality over the next few runs, and we’ll likely see a clearer and different picture painted.

17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Reverse jinx worked here too. Thanks @Chicago Storm!

it's a magical thing.

The forum will compress this picture to hell, but here was the view out of ORD as the line approached…

Peak wind gust of 73MPH at MDW.

Peak wind gust of 61MPH here at ORD.

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

we'll try again tomorrow...

the reverse jinx worked.

Numerous 70-90MPH wind reports in NE Iowa, NW Illinois and SW Wisconsin.

we'll try again tomorrow...

The HRRR is top tier for tomorrow around here, projecting 3 rounds of back-back-back severe clusters locally.

On the visible satellite loop it looks like the remnant low of a tropical depression is lifting northward through eastern Iowa.  The rain bands are very efficient.  I got another 1.79" of rain overnight through this morning.  The defo zone/pivot point of the meso low passed just west of me and produced a band of 3-4" of rain across that area.  There was no thunder this morning, just tropical-style heavy rain.
After getting only 1.90" of rain in May, I have already received 3.23" in the first week of June.  The soil has been thoroughly replenished and the garden is thriving.