Chicago Storm

9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Those totals are a huge disappointment.

The warm lake destroyed two potentially great storms in one week.  If the lake temps would have been anywhere close to normal, there would have been two benefits: (1) further south track/warm intrusion for each storm, like N IL often sees in the Spring when warm fronts get hung up south of the lake (2) less of a temp increase from the easterly winds.  Even a 1-2 F decrease would have been huge for both storms.

Could have easily seen 20+ inches widespread across N IL this week...but instead even the best snow areas in the metro area only have 5-8" of water-laden slop on the ground.

Very unfortunate. Probably shouldn't be too upset since there's still snow on the ground and cold temps on the way...but we shouldn't have to worry about lake warmth in mid-Jan.  The warm December continues to haunt us. 

The lake had nothing to do with the track of either storm system. The lake is also not the main reason for the warm intrusion with each storm system either, that's more-so a storm track issue and a lack of antecedent quality cold air issue. Yes, the lake is making things worse in the metro/NE Illinois, but for both storm systems temperatures have even gotten into the mid-30's across much of N Illinois/S Wisconsin...and E Iowa with the first one earlier in the week.

One big difference in the evolution of this storm system that we are seeing is how the double-barrel SLP/inverted trough feature has played out.

Most guidance, as recently as the 0z runs last evening, had the southern SLP becoming dominated as things transitioned across Illinois and Indiana. Instead, we have seen the northern SLP be the dominant one, thus leading to everything having been shifted a bit north so far out this way.

As we continue on, it does look like the transition to a most eastern dominant SLP will occur as things continue up into Michigan.

Snowfall totals as of noon…
ORD - 4.4”
MDW - 5.3”
RFD - 4.9”


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Are you referring to latest HRRR runs? RFD far enough NW to avoid it but not here

If you’re in NE Illinois or the metro, I would have concerns about a last minute shift north and that the front end thump was the main show…

KORD 121351Z 10024G48KT 1/2SM R10L/3000V3500FT SN FG OVC005 01/00 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 09048/1342 SLP991 SNINCR 1/5 P0005 T00060000


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Some sort of gravity wave type of feature has moved across the metro/NE Illinois, with a brief, but sharp increase in winds.

ORD gusted to 55MPH.




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This front end thump has definitely not been of lower ratio.

Probably 10:1 ratio, if not a bit higher potentially, as it is blowing around fairly easily.


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Was Jim Cantore also live on scene?

Stacking at ORD…

KORD 121251Z 08018G26KT 1/2SM R10L/3500V5000FT SN FG VV004 00/M01 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1237 PRESFR SLP036 SNINCR 2/4 P0012 T00001006


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There has been a ton of TSSN south of I-80 the past few hours.


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0z Euro back SE once again.

Turning into just an average piece of guidance these days

35 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

I hope more precip blossoms south of this initial waa band like hrrr suggests. Otherwise not going to get much at all. 

Give it time...

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

SREF is a joke btw. ORD mean was at 5” this AM. 11” now

as it always has been.

Only hr 12 and the NAM appears south already. 

This trough feature extending from the main SLP is an interesting development that we've seen gain traction over the past 12-24 hours.

It can enhance precip/snowfall. Folks in the Northeast see significant versions, Norlun troughs, that sort of do the same.

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Don’t want that shift to continue if you’re in N IL or you risk mixing and the dryslot.

alek reeling it in.

18z Euro with the bump NW.

Wisconsin gets the goods. up into N-L. Michigan.

With the amount of snow and the low ratios, compaction is going to really factor in.  Would be interesting if someone had the time to run two snowboards and do an aggregate hourly and storm total measurements.

Ya'll are slacking... No 18z GGEM mention?

10 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

oddly quiet as of late.  

have been fairly busy unfortunately.

would like to have been posting more, but just haven't had the time.

39 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Storm

what are your thoughts for the area?

Cautiously optimistic would be the phrase I'd use.

9 minutes ago, wegoweather said:

Small error in the LOT WSW text in regards to the counties.  

ricky's mind going a thousand miles a minute right now.

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

too late, the numbers have been crunched

that white rain is gonna stack nicely there.

P&C total snow forecast is 9-17 inches. If just the minimum verifies + the arctic air that follows, I’m pretty sure my husky will never come inside again.