Chicago Storm

the 12z HRRR Alek snow

Been reading much much more than I post and thankful to many folks here like for sharing their knowledge. It seems the pacific does have a major bearing on our winter and the PDO has significant long term effects (albeit with debate). Please correct me if I’m wrong (but preferably with a little less snark )

I was out biking in the preserve across from home before work today and noticed several species of trees are budding...especially some types of maples. Came across one tree in particular that had moved past budding and was beginning to green out.

Can't recall seeing that occur this early before, even in years with warmer February periods.

the climate non-sense in every thread has gotten old quick.

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

Strat warming is a near non issue with a -PDO. The pacific runs the show. Nothing else matters (much).

read more, post less.

As mentioned a few days ago, the seasonal demise of the SPV continues to be on the horizon, and earlier than average. This is a warming to demise evolution.

On 2/16/2024 at 5:55 AM, A-L-E-K said:

u know the winter has been a turd when we're still doing the SSWE thing 

 

like any other winter, nothing new there.

Several things to watch as we head towards the conclusion of February...

Warmest February's
1. 39.0° - 1882
2. 38.7° - 1998
3. 38.0° - 2017
4. 37.5° - 1954
5. 37.3° - 1877
6. 37.1° - 1930
7. 36.6° - 2024 (Thru 2/18)
8. 36.5° - 1878
9. 35.8° - 1976
10. 35.6° - 1931

Least Snowy February's
1. T - 2024 (Thru 2/18)
1. T - 2017
1. T - 1998
1. T - 1987
5. 0.3" - 1996
5. 0.3" - 1921
7. 0.4" - 1995
8. 0.4" - 1931
9. 0.5" - 1915
10. 0.9" - 1922

Driest February's
1. 0.06" - 1877
2. 0.10" - 2024 (Thru 2/18)
3. 0.13" - 1920
4. 0.19" - 2003
5. 0.25" - 1969
6. 0.33" - 1958
7. 0.38" - 1947
7. 0.38" - 1921
9. 0.41" - 1995
9. 0.41" - 1982

Did Missouri get their two feet from lake Michigan too?

8 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Not sure if this is definitive about a SSW cancel but maybe you have some insight. Post stated 100% of ensembles had a reversal on the SSW with PV remaining intact

Yea, guidance has backed off of showing a full blown SSWE, but we are most definitely seeing significant stratospheric warming. The effects are and will be similar to that of an actual SSWE, with high latitude blocking. However, given the pattern alignment and the lack of MJO support, it is unlikely to bring any consistent, significant, noteworthy, or interesting wintry weather to these parts, at least for the foreseeable future.

I’ve been waiting to hit mid-month, and now that we have, this thread is about to get cookin’…

solid february we’re having.

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on Friday, which tied the record high temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886.

Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on February 9th, which tied the record high max temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886.

Ah, good ole useless weather politics at play yet again.

Well, it absolutely feels like April 1 here in Chicago. 54° and thunderstorms actually probably more like May 1.


.

Had a storm brush by here at ORD a short time ago.

It produced a very brief burst of 0.50” hail. There is a corridor of several reports of 0.50” to 1.00” hail from SW to SE to ENE of here.

Obviously there has been some severe, but if dew points had gotten as high as the outlier guidance had shown, things would have been off to the races today.

Now there's a tor warning and a brief tornado report.

Activity is working into an area with cooler temps/higher dew points, thus smaller spreads.

8 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Isn't there definitely an unwarned nader or potential for one on that cell north of Peoria

 

 

It's high based from all reports from those on it.

Nearby OBS is 60/47, so makes sense.

Regarding today across IA/IL/WI...

Not too surprising, but the four-some of models that were most enthused with today have been too high with dew points across the target area.

The HRRR, RAP, FV3, and RRFS had been consistently advertising a solid area of low-mid 50's dew points developing across the target area. However, in reality dew points are running several degrees behind those projections, only in the mid-upper 40's as of 2PM.

As is always the case, this thread is for short term activity that isn't thread worthy and medium range potential.

I've been busy with other things, so haven't been able to focus on or put out any thoughts on the long range as of yet. Hopefully I'll have something out in the next day...

But, for now...

-I've seen some on social media trying to compare this upcoming period to what we saw in early-mid January. However, the setup on the large scale has differences when factoring everything in, so the outcome shouldn't be expected to be the same.
-Significant stratospheric warming is on the horizon. The Euro suggests this period of warming could be a full on SSWE, and could be the one that leads to the demise of the SPV for the season.
-The MJO appears as though it does not want to play ball, looking to stay in warmer phases and the COD during this period.
-This last two points regarding the SSW and MJO likely means it'll be more of a battle this go around.
-Based on the positioning of everything, temps will likely be more of a rollercoaster mix of below/seasonal/above.
-The pattern is likely to be active across the CONUS, with a W/NW flow. We'll see a constant parade of disturbances/troughs break off Bering Sea/Aleutian/Pacific mean troughing, then skimming across the CONUS.

About as great of a start to February as you can get.

55° at ORD currently, 1° off the record high for today.

I thought being a lions fan was tough, guess I hadn't seen nothing yet. Then they choke for the world to see. Almost everyone in America was rooting for them, except for a few divisional fans. This one's gonna hurt for awhile.