Chicago Storm

I really haven't had time to get into any medium or long range thoughts for quite a while, but...

If you're into hyper-active patterns with consistent t'storm/severe t'storm potential and consistently warmer temps, the pattern we are sliding into is for you. One thing to note, though, is that the western/southwestern half of the sub-forum on into the Central US may be favored for the aforementioned.

ENS are in agreement on consistent troughing into the PAC NW and potentially deeper into the West Coast, which should allow for a parade of disturbances/storm systems to eject across the Central US. This all begins with the first storm system coming up to end this week, and it may very well continue right on into the first full week of May.

Solid dryline across N and W IL this afternoon. Dew points in the low-mid 50's ahead of it, with mid 20's to low 30's behind it.

lol at this warning

30 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Tomorrow certainly going to be very interesting...ought to be at least a couple strongsomewhere near the IA/IL/MO intersection. As to exactly where in that vicinity at this point...

Tomorrow is very uncertain and murky at this point.

Many more questions than answers.

First 80°+ high temp of the year at ORD on Sunday, with a high of 81°.

7 hours ago, buckeye said:

You're not doing Egypt?   j/k, but that would be pretty damn cool too.

i can't do that long of a flight. otherwise i'd head to australia, where they will have four between 2028-2038.

i'll have to wait for the back-to-back one's in 2044 and 2045.

6 hours ago, buckeye said:

I don't know what it is about that place.  I have one about 5 mins from me and I never go.   It's fcking chicken fingers with a dip that's basically ranch and ketchup mixed.

they are dead to me because they don't offer bbq sauce.

horrible establishment.

On 4/8/2024 at 12:39 PM, Chicago Storm said:

Stationed near Franklin, IN.

As expected, have had high clouds this morning and afternoon here, varying between scattered to overcast at ~30,000KFT.

Looks like the thicker stuff should be out of the way in time for totality.

Ended up with great viewing conditions for the eclipse yesterday, as the thicker portion of the high level cirrus cloud deck moved out just in time for totality.

As expected, the experience blew out my 15 seconds of totality while riding the edge of the 2017 eclipse just SE of STL. This go-around, having full totality for a solid 4 minutes, was great. I didn't believe it going into it, but it's all true... When totality hits and it goes dark, similar to after sunset on a normal night, things change... Birds got quiet, and nightlife came alive. Instead of having just the western horizon filled with yellow/orange like a normal evening sunset, it was 360° in all directions. In the sky above, it wasn't black and dark like night, but more of a deep/dark navy blue-like shade. Also visible were Jupiter and Venus, as well as eye visible prominence/coronal loop.

Looking forward to the next two total eclipse opportunities in 2044 (Montana/Canada) and 2045 (Western/Southern US).

Stationed near Franklin, IN.

As expected, have had high clouds this morning and afternoon here, varying between scattered to overcast at ~30,000KFT.

Looks like the thicker stuff should be out of the way in time for totality.

I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. 
TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same.
I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway.
In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality.

I think I'd avoid IL altogether at this point. 250mb jet position and shared energy area is a dead ringer for getting washed out by thicker jet cirrus. Guidance has just started picking up on it and now dprog/dt is starting to trend the wrong way. That shit will come in fast and you won't have time to reposition adequately. It'll look fine in the morning and by lunch, you'll be screwed. 

I'm honing in on somewhere in the corridor from SE IL, near the IL/IN border, into C IN. Guidance seems to be in best agreement in keeping this corridor out of the expected high clouds, or at least keeping them minimal until after the eclipse. 

TX/OK/AR/MO all seem to be a lock to have high clouds of higher coverage and significance. While it may still be visible through the higher clouds in some areas in this corridor, the experience will be far from the same.

I never really considered the Northeast as a possibility, as it's going to be cooler (Would rather view in quality weather conditions), and there will likely be a higher density of viewers/travelers there due to the proximity to the higher population centers along the East Coast... And plus, I'm just not really interested in heading up that way anyway.

In 2017, I was down in Southwestern Illinois, just outside of the STL metro. I was right just inside the range of totality, so I got to experience brief totality and the effects of riding the edge. This go around, I plan on setting up in full/max totality.

Had a period of snow in the area Wednesday morning, which then transitioned to RASN by midday and then RA for the afternoon.

There was another period of RASN this morning, which transitioned to RA by midday.

No measurable snowfall accumulation at ORD with either bout of precip the past two days.

One of the best looking and most textbook examples of occlusion we have probably seen in this area/region for as long as I can remember...

There is sort of an exotic phase with this one.

Even a bit of fujiwara effect in the Great Lakes for a time between the northern and southern stream main vort lobes and then again out east later on.

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Broyles has gotten better over the years

Solid garden variety t’storm activity ongoing across the area tonight.

Event snowfall total of 1.0" here at ORD.

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Even though under WWA expect maybe 1" of slop far SE McHenry. Maybe 2-3" up on the IL/WI border 

Depends on where the F-Gen band sets up.

Wherever it does, there will likely will be a corridor of up to 6", maybe even higher.

Anyone notice the Euro change that was made?

It still comes out earlier even with the DST change.

Any severe threat up around here for Thursday vanished as quickly as it appeared.

2 hours ago, andyhb said:

Blocking pattern looks to setup beyond mid month given the ongoing significant SSW and prolonged disruption/decay of the stratospheric PV (perhaps the final warming). Would think moderation of some of the warmth should occur during that period along with a decrease in severe weather chances.

It most definitely is the demise/final warming of the SPV, no question on that at all.

Some of these tornado warnings today have been eek bad.

February 2024 finished as the warmest February on record for Chicago.

Warmest February's
1. 39.5° - 2024
2. 39.0° - 1882
3. 38.7° - 1998
4. 38.0° - 2017
5. 37.5° - 1954
6. 37.3° - 1877
7. 37.1° - 1930
8. 36.5° - 1878
9. 35.8° - 1976
10. 35.6° - 1931

February 2024 finished as the warmest February on record for Chicago. Winter 2023/24 finished as the 5th warmest winter on record for Chicago.

Warmest February's
1. 39.5° - 2024
2. 39.0° - 1882
3. 38.7° - 1998
4. 38.0° - 2017
5. 37.5° - 1954
6. 37.3° - 1877
7. 37.1° - 1930
8. 36.5° - 1878
9. 35.8° - 1976
10. 35.6° - 1931

Warmest Winter's
1. 37.2 - 1877/78
2. 35.7 - 1931/32
3. 35.2 - 1879/80
4. 35.1 - 1881/82
5. 34.9 - 2023/24
6. 34.6 - 1889/90
7. 33.6 - 1875/76
8. 33.2 - 1997/87
9. 33.1 - 1918/19
10. 32.8 - 2011/12
10. 32.8 - 1920/21

Skilling road off into the sunset tonight…