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Chicago Storm

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Posts posted by Chicago Storm

    August 2023 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Low at ORD this morning was 81.  If this holds through midnight (actually, even if it stays at 79+), it will be the warmest min on record for so late in the season.  Next closest is 78 on 8/27/2020.
    We'll have to see if any storms or the lake-enhanced front brings the temp down before midnight.

    It’s not gonna hold, no chance at this one.


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    August 2023 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Wow, historic. This may very well be the highest RELIABLE heat index reading on record. As noted by Tom Karl & Richard Knight, in their 1996 paper examining the role of climate change on the 1995 heat wave, the HO-83 hygrothermometer had a warm bias of at least 0.5C. This was one of the reasons they were unable to confirm any impact from climate change on the occurrence of extreme heat episodes. However, other research has found warm biases of as much as 2-3C on sunny, light wind days. The design allowed warmed air to recirculate into the housing for the sensor. I hate to bring this up since I was accused of trolling the 1988 drought thread, but ironically it was noted climate denier, Steve McIntyre, who first brought this to my attention.
    image.png.d671483808f42908bf82b0260b8dbf4e.png
     

    enough already with this nonsense.


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    • Like 2

    August 2023 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Wednesday is now looking like it'll likely be the hottest day of this period around here, and the hottest day of the year.
    Back-door front timing for Thursday has been speeding up on most guidance, otherwise there would have had a higher temperature ceiling for then.

    And the trend since reversed. Tomorrow has the best shot at 100+ we’ve seen in years.


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    • Like 2

    August 2023 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Bit of a disagreement on the Td's in Iowa between guidance. GFS shows unbelievably comfortable Td's for mid-August, while the Euro brings in the jungle at the same time.
    0z Euro (valid at 18z Monday)
    image.png.b06b7e81f14d9936805ca9b868003421.png
    6z GFS (valid at 21z Monday)
    image.png.95f4ceba99ffb9e636b76588dbc19666.png
     
     

    that’s because the GFS mixes an unrealistic amount.


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    Summer 2023 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Usually I'm not big on the long range thoughts as much during the summer, mostly cause I'm out actually enjoying things. However...

    I did want to mention that it is likely that this active seasonable/trough/NW flow type pattern will stay locked in around the Midwest/Great Lakes for the next week or so. This is partially the product of a generally -NAO/+PNA regime in place on the larger scale.

    Looks like the next push of hotter temps/higher humidity will be centered around the Aug 19-24th period or so, as the -NAO relaxes and the PNA flips fairly negative.

    • Thanks 3

    Severe Threat Aug. 6th

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    In terms of this sub-forum, I'd actually be more interested in the severe threat with the MCV across portions of IL/IN on Saturday...more-so that the severe threat with the main storm system on Sunday across the Western portion of the sub-forum.

    Likely we'll see a solid corridor with flood potential across portions of MO/IL/IN, tonight through Saturday as well.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
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