ldub23

The trend is still good enough in the HRRR

This reminds me of a situation back around 1971 but my memory fails a bit. Then we had an arctic boundary that stalled to the SE and for a week we had cold with occasional snow showers but little accumulation. Then an upper low came over and dumps 2.5 inches just after school started. Lots of similarities to the upcoming week.

I like this look. There is plenty of Actual cold air around this time.

06 GFS better with several snow chances 102 162 This at 204

ITS been a few years since we had a cold winter pattern and there is still no sign we will have one this winter. 2 or 3 days of cold isnt a pattern change and th warm is coming back

06GFS still looks good for RIC

In se va we will get the worst weather possible. Bitter cold and nothing to show for it. Good Ric will get snow. RIC may end up with a foot+ thru 16 days

Looks like central va will get a good snow. More snow!!

Hopefully the trend will be good today

18 GFS has several opportunities for inland areas and ends like this

After a few days of cold and dry its right back to rain and warm. We get far more tornado watches in Jan/feb than winter advisories now, lol

Soon it will be February. Hard to believe we will have 1000+days without an inch of snow.

Getting better

More cold overall

This seems so much like last seasons snowless winter. A 2-3 day cold spell followed by warm.

Im out till the NWS has snow in its 7 day forecast. Might till 2025 lol Nothing and now the consensus is at the end of the run it warms up so now we have to wait till feb for the pattern change while the seasonal warmup begins

Never good when in January threads are being started about rain

The se ridge wont go away

30 mile NW trend please

Amazing cold dump in the west with no way for it to come east. We will end with a ridge and warm rain. 12Z is far worse than even the 6z which was bad enough. This is 1977 in reverse. hot in the east brutal cold in the west.

Latest gfs ends with an SER and once again the cold can never get here. low after low cutting to the west.

I was a kid and remember it well. Friday afternoon they were predicting snow flurries for sat, then sat morning they were saying 1-2 inches. At the height of the storm it was 16 degrees with 40+wind gusts and heavy snow. It snowed all day sunday and the temp warmed to 27. They said 13 inches but it had to be at least 20. Right after we had a big warm up and it was gone in a few days except there were still small snow piles on apr 02 in parking lots. Im using Norfolk obs. Here is the wildest 10 days of weather ever here. On the 15th of feb it got to 80 degrees. On the 18th we had 13.6 of snow. On the 21st it got to 76 degrees. On the 24th we had 8.6 inches of snow. Nothing like it since. Sum 1462 981 - - 601 9 5.80 24.4 - Average 52.2 35.0 43.6 -0.6 - - - - 1.2 Normal 53.4 35.1 44.2 - 582 1 2.90 1.5 - 1989-02-01 72 46 59.0 16.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-02 80 52 66.0 23.6 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-03 81 41 61.0 18.5 4 0 0.11 0.0 0 1989-02-04 41 33 37.0 -5.6 28 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-05 38 34 36.0 -6.7 29 0 0.64 0.0 0 1989-02-06 45 37 41.0 -1.8 24 0 0.18 0.0 0 1989-02-07 45 35 40.0 -3.0 25 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-08 43 36 39.5 -3.6 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-09 37 20 28.5 -14.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-10 40 19 29.5 -13.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-11 53 26 39.5 -4.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-12 55 30 42.5 -1.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-13 57 34 45.5 1.6 19 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-14 77 56 66.5 22.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-15 80 62 71.0 26.8 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-16 67 41 54.0 9.6 11 0 T 0.0 0 1989-02-17 43 30 36.5 -8.1 28 0 0.15 1.2 0 1989-02-18 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 1.33 13.6 7 1989-02-19 38 26 32.0 -12.9 33 0 0.18 0.6 9 1989-02-20 50 24 37.0 -8.1 28 0 0.04 0.0 4 1989-02-21 76 44 60.0 14.7 5 0 0.49 0.0 0 1989-02-22 60 43 51.5 6.0 13 0 0.21 0.0 0 1989-02-23 43 36 39.5 -6.2 25 0 0.16 0.4 0 1989-02-24 36 26 31.0 -14.9 34 0 1.03 8.6 3 1989-02-25 36 21 28.5 -17.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 7 1989-02-26 50 29 39.5 -6.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 3 1989-02-27 44 36 40.0 -6.5 25 0 0.41 T 0 1989-02-28 40 35 37.5 -9.2 27 0 0.71 0.0 0

Thanks, if only that would happen again better than nothing

This is a good look. Its dry but cold. Cant have winter storms without this.