LibertyBell

it depends on the local geography

Looks like they are going for a SE to NW pass. We should know definitively whether or not this has reached MH status prior to landfall. It's Cat 3....111 weird lower threshold for Cat 3 should be 110 since all measurements get rounded to nearest 5 mph anyway.

Isn't this the worst direction for N.O. though? I always thought that storm surge flooding is worst for N. O. when storms pass just to their east and keep the city under a northerly flow, so they get surge from the lake. N. O. is too far away from the GoM to get a lot of surge from the south.

This is basically a Cat 3, the weird SS threshold of 111 notwithstanding. That scale needs to be rounded to the closest 5 mph just like the measurements are. It's a Cat 3.

Well, as you know, we can't go from 60 to 0 on a dime so I suspect there's a consensus developing about the transition curve....is it following along the IPCC guidelines (50% by 2030, 90% by 2040 and 100% by 2050, if I remember correctly)?

is 2050 the latest any nation has committed to, Don?

what about 2011 as an analog? Looks like this storm might produce snow in the northeast too, first here in October since 2011....

wow I thought 1933-34 was one of the most extremely cold winters here in NY, looks like most of the rest of the country west of here wasn't cold at all.

and colder

dont forget planes- that must also be added to this list as many are located near large bodies of water and there are lots of negative interactions betweens planes and birds. wasnt an energy company in California found guilty of negligence and implicated in the forest fires there a few years ago? btw you mentioned pesticides, did you read the story about thousands of barrels of DDT leaking into the Pacific found just offshore from LA? Well as you probably know, single-use plastic is on the way out because of the litter it causes especially in landfills and the ocean. We can now use plant-based plastics that were recently developed and which are biodegradable.

Did you read about how computerized wind turbines can actually use motion detection and radars to stop birds from dying by temporarily and selectively turning some off as birds approach? And I would rather them be located offshore like we are doing in NY/NJ.

What do you guys think of this? https://www.digitaltrends.com/features/solar-radiation-management-geoengineering/ In the article it says this is relatively "cheap" and would only cost a "few" hundred million dollars (compare that to the 1 trillion dollar NYC is spending on that sea wall and beach sand buildup project.)

In states like Texas, more people are now employed by the renewable industry than are employed by the fossil fuel cartels. And why not? The green energy jobs pay more, they are the fastest growing segment of the job market and they dont pollute the environment or people's health. What's not to love?

Lee Goldberg keeps saying something which I think is incorrect. He keeps saying that the hurricane is "holding back the front to our west." Hurricanes dont do this, if anything, it's fronts that push hurricanes around (we see this all the time.) It's the WAR which is holding up the front, not the hurricane.

My memory must be going but I remember that you brought up 1970-71 as an analog in 2007-08 and it ended up being spot on for how the winter played out. I dont know if it was an outlook per se or if you were just sharing your thoughts about similar winters from the past, but I do remember you said you thought it would be a frontloaded winter like that.

One could easily argue that climate change and covid19 both fall under national security. They actually do!

Maybe we could go after the fossil fuel cartels on antitrust grounds? Posted this on the political forum also: One of the few good things this justice department has done (and I suspect it's as a result of the bipartisan antitrust congressional hearings) is going after Google. This needs to be done to all 5 big tech companies (Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft). Europe fines them billions for stealing and using personal data, we need to catch up. Hopefully Warren gets a big role in the new administration's Justice Dept, because she's been forward-thinking on this important issue for years now.

This whole escapade reminds me of the big banks and the "too big to fail" fiasco- and please just ignore our predatory lending practices. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo is back at it and they've now been caught misrepresenting themselves to steal small business covid response payments and had to fire 125 employees. https://www.cfo.com/fraud/2020/10/wells-fargo-fires-over-100-employees-for-alleged-covid-19-relief-fraud/ Nevermind all the big banks found to be laundering money for criminals who were propping up extremist regimes.

As soon as that happens, real reform will begin.

Right now they are too busy harassing good people on Twitter and putting their social media people on some sort of a "justification" spree for all their bad behavior on an ExxonKnew hashtag and claiming they are doing something to stop climate change.

I like 2012 too, actually 1973, 2007 and 2012 but I'm very cautious about using 70s analogs here, we get a lot more precip on the east coast than we used to back then. I noticed 1973, 1988 and 1999 mentioned in an earlier post by you (on this page), I think you stated that you didn't like 1999 though but 1988 was on there. 2012 might be the best match of all, but as you'll notice in the climate subforum, sea ice was on a rapid rise at this point in 2012, and we're really lagging behind in 2020. I'd give a slight nod to 2007 over the other years that were mentioned.

yes, this is something I noticed a few years ago, but the relationship was stronger before the 1995-96 winter.

this storm at the end of the month, the models have been waffling back and forth on it, do you see it more like 1991 or 2012? I see your list of analogs had 1973, 1988, 1999 and 2007 in it, and none of those had a large storm at the end of the month. Personally I'd throw out 1988 and 1999 as they are 11 yr peak solar cycle years, and go with 1973 and 2007.

Lots of stuff here