LibertyBell

Will I think we had signs both years from the Arctic that they would be stinkers but those signs were ignored for the most part.

Yes but there was a lack of cold air up north in 2001-02.....in that respect it was very similar to 2011-12. So even with a block in place you were only going to get stale air. Funny thing about 2001-02 was that the Carolinas got a big snowstorm in January, right down to the coast. So when we did have the blocking we had suppression and it went and gave a historic 12+ snowstorm down south.......

I wouldn't say that October in 2011 was all that "great", it was just one storm at the end of the month. If you look at what was going on up in the Arctic that was one of our worst in terms of how fast snowcover/arctic ice build up was occurring.

The main issue is snowfall maps by definition cant be that finely detailed. Think about it this way- the average ratio is 10:1 so trying to separate 4-8" from 6-12" is like trying to separate 0.4"-0.8" from 0.6"-1.2" The margin of error is actually going to be greater than the range of these "zones"!

I like that October is setting up to have a predominant ridge west trough east alignment. Even if it flips back for awhile to a ridge in the east and a trough in the west in November and December, traditionally some of our best winters are like that. I think it was Isotherm who figured out why that is- that the pattern in October often closely aligns with what happens during the winter. LC's forecast for the winter is also like that.

Yes these dynamic storms that feed off the warm water really drag in the cold air from the north (provided there is cold enough air from the north to be dragged down of course.) The also feed on the thermocline, the temperature differences between the land and the water.

What about Irfanview? I find that one pretty easy to use also. GIMP has been having some issues, a renegade developer stole the code and made a separate fork of it that's infested with adware. He called it GIMPshop

Yea, it's pretty obvious.....First Law of Thermodynamics.

Had to correct the last part, Oymjakon reached -88 not -66, and it was -98 back in 2013! No location in the Northern Hemisphere has yet reached -100 from the article \ In this remote outpost in Siberia, the cold is no small affair. Eyelashes freeze, frostbite is a constant danger and cars are usually kept running even when not being used, lest their batteries die in temperatures that average minus-58 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter, according to news reports. This is Oymyakon, a settlement of some 500 people in Russia’s Yakutia region, that has earned the reputation as the coldest permanently occupied human settlement in the world. It is not a reputation that has been won easily. Earlier this week, a cold snap sent temperatures plunging toward record lows, with reports as extreme as minus-88 degrees Fahrenheit. The village recorded an all-time low of minus-98 degrees in 2013.

Besides 2011 what were the other ones? In 2012 we had 8" of snow after Sandy in the first week of November.

I'm trying to remember the greatest spread here in a 12 month period (doesn't have to be a calendar year).....the last time it actually got below zero here was the 1993-94 winter when it was -2 in January and it got above 100 a couple of times in the previous July, so it was 102 to -2 so a 104 degree spread. We haven't had anything like that in the new millenium.

Already had 30" in Jan 2016

Sounds a lot like what Larry Cosgrove said....cold until November 7, then mild from there through the end of December and then cold again January through March.... is that what your thinking is too?

Didn't we get into the 20s in mid Oct on the south shore of Nassau County with snow showers also in NYC- I think that was last year?

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/10/17/nyc-area-forecast-freeze-watches-issued-coldest-air-season-arrives/

I like that we have an el nino, it usually forces more suppressed tracks that are good for us, most of our biggest snowstorms have occurred during an el nino. It might get off to a rocky start but I have confidence in the second half of winter at least. Meanwhile I'm glad October actually feels like fall- I wasn't taking seriously the idea of a torch October. It's the fall month historically least likely to torch and we should see our first frost this weekend.

Hell no! Feb 2003 and Feb 2015 repeat...... GO BIG OR GO HOME!

It's not what the predominant NAO signal for the season is per se, but how many times it changes, thats why closer to neutral NAO seem to be the best seasons for snowfall- PD2 for example occurred when the NAO was positive. There are many examples of this. Also the warmer than normal temps offshore do allow for quicker bombogenesis and drag in colder air from the north into these storms. That's actually a more favorable signal for northeast snowstorms than colder than normal waters just offshore. The continent supplies the cold air and the water supplies the moisture, and the warmer the water the better, because that means the air above that water is more moist and the water is a powder keg for big storms (like what we had last winter.) This is exactly why the past decade has been so great for big snows.

LMAO how come you dont post in the Red Sox thread anymore Ray?!

LOL that's me exactly. The funny thing is that's the first time I've been jackpotted since 2002-03. Where I live is usually a huge snowhole and severe weather hole, and all our big "jackpots" have been in high end el ninos....1982-83, then 2002-03 and finally 2015-16. Most of the other times we were on the lower end of the regional snowfall totals. As far as severe weather is concerned, the last time we had a great severe weather outbreak here was Labor Day 1998.

I think we had our latest 70 min here beat 2015 by a day and got it on Oct 10, with the rain today we are already in the 60s.

The Euro for next February has consistently looked amazing....let's hope it doesn't end up like 2006-07 and we get a bunch of ice/sleet events!

Woah -4 on Long Island? Not on this part of Long Island, we haven't been to zero or below since 1994 lol.

This will be upgraded to Cat 5 post analysis just like Andrew was, everything was leveled down there.

We also had a big snow the next year in the first week of November on Long Island, 8" and it was Sandy related.