LibertyBell

Also, I'm going to be driving at around 1 PM from NE PA thru NJ and NYC and into SW LI getting there around sunset or shortly thereafter. Will the winds in NE PA and W NJ not be as strong? And as far as the strongest winds and heaviest rain is concerned for NYC and SW LI, would that be a few hours after sunset, somewhere between 7 PM and 10 PM?

Oh okay, I was figuring if the heaviest rains lasted for 30 min we'd have 0.75 right there and have another half inch scattered outside of that 30 min interval.

Walt sounds like rainfall will be between 1-2 inches total like it was with the last event except that was over 3 days this will be over 30 min? We now have a WA between 1 pm and Midnight

Wow Islip had over 40 inches for every one of those 9 years except for the horrible 11-12 and 16-17 in which they barely missed it by less than an inch. 5 out 9 (almost 6) with over 50"+ and 3 out 9 with over 60"!

On the opposite end of the spectrum we cant ignore what the 2010s has given us which is 5 straight 30"+ snowfall seasons between 13-14 and 17-18 (includes two straight of 50"+ in 13-14 and 14-15) which was almost 6 straight 30"+ seasons (if you include 12-13, which fell 4" short at NYC but was much more across LI thanks to Feb 2013.). I went even further back and found that we had 9 out of 10 snowfall seasons with 26" or more between 08-09 and 17-18 (with 7 of those seasons above 30" and two back to backs of 50"+ 09-10 to 10-11 and 13-14 to 14-15)....only rudely interrupted by 2011-12 (which still had the historic October snowstorm.) And going even further back we have the period from 00-01 to 17-18 with 14 out of 18 with 26 inches of snow or more, including 12 with 30" or more and the aforementioned 2 back to backs with 50"+ and 4 straight of 40"+ , which also includes 9 out of 16 with 40"+ between 02-03 and 17-18 and 8 out of 13 of 40"+ between 02-03 and 14-15!) https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

No 30" snowfall seasons from 1978-79 to 1992-93 (15 straight years!) must also be unprecedented.

number 1 most likely T for DJF (almost did it in 97-98) hands down. Um I've having a tough time trying to decide between 50" single storm and 10" in one hour, they both seem highly unlikely but I guess it can happen since Nemo Feb 2013 came close to both of those numbers in parts of CT and LI? At any rate at least I've seen 30" in one storm (Jonas Jan 2016.) I'll add another couple, what about 100" total snowfall for the year and 60" in one month (averaging 2" per day over a 30 day month). 100" total snowfall for a 12 month period I think we either did it or came close if you go from Dec 09 to Dec 10 and maybe also Dec 02 to Dec 03? 60" over a 30 day period we might have come close (parts of LI definitely did it) between Dec 10 and Jan 11? That was the snowiest stretch as well as the longest duration snowcover I've ever experienced on the south shore (from the day after Christmas to Valentine's Day!) That winter truly turned on a dime, before Boxing Day we were talking about a paltry winter because of the La Nina which was moderate to strong and by the end of that period we were using analogs from the 1910s which was the last time NYC had such a snowy and cold moderate to strong La Nina and also the last time NYC had back to back 50"+ snowfall seasons (1916-17 and 1917-18) until 2009-10 and 2010-11. It could have been our snowiest winter of all time if the party didn't abruptly stop in February lol. Very similar to 1960-61 in that respect. And then we had another 50"+ consecutive snowfall seasons in 13-14 and 14-15 (which makes the 2010s decade truly amazing- even moreso than the 4 straight 40"+ snowfall seasons from 02-03 to 05-06). Feb/Mar backend in 2014-15 was also amazing, similar to what we got in 1966-67.

This is a GREAT snapshot of the 80s and 90s, Chris- the first time I've seen someone do something like this. So in a nutshell there were two periods devoid of meaningful snowfall. One was 88-89 to 91-92 (with the exception of 90-91) 3 out of 4 winters with 5.6 inches or less of snow. Then we have the sequel: 96-97 to 01-02 (with the exceptions of 99-00 and 00-01) with 3 in a row with 8.2 inches or less of snow and 4 out of 6 with 8.2 or less inches of snow because I'm going to include 01-02 since it was the warmest winter I've ever experienced and just as historic as 95-96 was in the other direction. To have 97-98 and 01-02 in the same stretch was truly horrendous. On the other hand we can't complain since we also had 93-94 and 95-96 in (50"+ winters) 2 out of 3 winters or 02-03 to 05-06 (40"+ winters) 4 straight or 09-10 or 10-11 (50"+ winters) back to back or 13-14 and 14-15 (50"+ winters) back to back and 3 straight (40"+ winters) if you also include the JFK total in 15-16. By the way please double check my numbers since I'm doing this off the top of my head. And can you do a list for the 2010s decade also please (I want to see how feast or famine we've been over the last 10 years.)

so wow I do have the right to brag that when I was in HS I experienced the least snowy period in NYC history..... 88-89, 89-90 and 91-92 all had 5.6 or less inches of snow! I wonder what happened to 90-91, how much in that season Chris?

Chris, what about 91-92? It was in your list (and pretty high up!) in the previous post.

Wasnt the period between 83-84 to about 91-92 much less snowy though? Also what about 96-97 to about 99-00? edit- in that list I see that 89-90 to 91-92 had 2/3 that were 5.0 or below. I put that in the HOF of least snowiest because of how snowless the 70s and 80s generally were. Also look at 97-98 to 01-02 which had 2 that were 3.5 or lower (that streak was broken up by 00-01 though which was a decent winter with the Millenium storm).

6" snowfall might be a good dividing line. I read in the Weather Almanac that NYC gets a 6" snowstorm in 50% of its winters and a 8" snowstorm in 33% of them.

Basically looks like high winds to 60-70 mph and heavy rain between about 4 PM and 10 PM EST west to east across our area with no one location experiencing these conditions for longer than 30 min?

The funny thing about the PAC is with the string of bad winters we've had, you'd expect a city in the NW like Seattle to be cashing in, but they've been in a long term snow drought (much longer than ours.)

Well in my experience not getting 6"+ snowstorms have happened in the majority of winters. If you want to be optimistic, the best we can hope for is one big snowstorm for the winter and that's it.

This is a very stable pattern and I would go so far as to say this is the dominant weather pattern for our area (the one that lasts the longest). In all my years on the east coast that I can remember, going back to the early 80s.....this is the pattern that recurs more often than any other.

This is the very familiar late 80s early 90s type pattern we've been getting the last few winters.

In the 15-16 winter we didn't have a SE Ridge in either Jan 16 or Feb 16? Should've done better with snowfall than just the one HECS we got.

Wow, I'd be curious to see what my favorite Northern Hemisphere research station hit- Summit Camp, Greenland. It's the coldest spot in the Northern Hemisphere, as it is at the very top of the Greenland Ice Cap.

with higher rainfall totals, coastal areas are just becoming an extension of the ocean.

Chris is that 60 mph winds near SW Nassau? We had 1.30 inches of rain over the last 3 days.

This is definitely causing the lobster population to migrate north.

Never heard of this place before lol, is 49 impressive for them?

What I want to know is why would the Indian Ocean have more weight on the NAO pattern (why is it warming more quickly?) than either the Pacific or Atlantic would? What exactly is the Indian Ocean doing and do the Pacific and Atlantic have an influence on the Indian Ocean too?

Is it me or did we just begin talking about the Indian Ocean a few years ago? It seems like before, say, two years ago, the Indian Ocean wasn't even talked about- as if what happened there didn't matter to global patterns?