LibertyBell

no maps?

I can give you a list of storms where JFK beat NYC even though JFK had some mixing and NYC did not.....Feb 1961 and Feb 1994 (second storm) are two examples, and March 1993 is also on that list.

right thats happened quite often where over a foot can fall even so, so it just becomes academic. also the coast needs to be defined better, big difference between say montauk and lynbrook.

NAM doesn't list any totals for NYC or LI- that's weird

paraGFS and NAM have been doing better than the Euro for awhile now

you seem to think it's going to mix at the coast, Walt, however to me it looks like besides the twin forks and south of Toms River, this isn't going to mix, seems like OKX is leaning the same way?

Thanks, Don, can you give me an estimate for JFK- I'm inferring you'd say 12-18? and please one for MPO if you would?

very nice! dont forget to post the GFS when it comes out

lol I never watch them, I used to watch their traffic and weather channel (61), but I also stopped watching that when they started putting nonsense programming on there.

Boston is also going to be mostly rain, it's for this reason I live on the extreme western end of Long Island, we dont usually change over on this kind of track (a good example is the Millenium Storm, which actually tracked west of where this one is supposed to go.)

Possibly, but I was just talking about this region to Morristown where we had 30+. I posted the discussion since the description given seemed a bit vague to me.

interesting they are talking about to 2 ft possibly for NYC and Long Island and fully onboard with the American models (GFS/NAM) I guess the Euro hasn't had a great track record lately

here is the discussion https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off SYNOPSIS... A major winter storm will begin to impact the Tri-State Region tonight. The storm will continue into Monday night, with lingering effects lasting into Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A strong upr low can be seen on water vapor near the IL/IN border this mrng. A solid arc of mid to high clouds were overspreading the area ahead of the approaching sys. Increasing clouds will therefore be the theme today, with perhaps some lgt snow or flurries before dark across the swrn third of the cwa. The NBM was followed with the typical adjustments for temps. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The fcst continues to trend snowier for much of the fcst area. The modeling still leaves a good amount of uncertainty wrt mixing for the ern half to third of the area. The NAM and GFS, including the 6Z NAM, are essentially the cold models. The GFS warmed the bl significantly during the aftn across LI, which seemed unrealistic given the wind direction except for close to the immediate south shore and Twin Forks. It stayed cold aloft. The 00Z NAM kept the bl cold, but surged enough warm air aloft to produce some mixing with sleet for much of LI by aftn. The 6Z run backed off on this. Both models warm things aloft briefly aft 00Z Tue, but by then most of the damage will have been done. The ECMWF came in with a warm soln, which would result in extensive mixing even potentially to NYC by aftn. Based on the good agreement between the NAM and GFS, and the good track record of the NAM, the fcst leans on the American models. It is a lean however and not a full buy in at this point. Snowfall amounts have been increased for almost the entire area. Amounts were lowered on the South Fork however. Despite the fact that we are forecasting up to 18 inches of snow, these numbers are conservative if you trust the NAM. The NAM suggests that 2 ft is reasonable for this event where the heaviest band sets up and where it remains mostly snow. Even LI is not out of the woods for getting these max amounts if the GFS/NAM are indeed correct with the temp profiles. Warnings have been issued for all but the Twin Forks, where the watch has been maintained. This is due to the mixing/rain potential. High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI. After the main snow band lifts north of the area Mon ngt, there could be additional bands, albeit not as heavy, on the backside of the sys right thru Tue. The upr low itself passes thru Tue ngt, allowing for things to dry up by Wed mrng.

sounds like Jan 2016

wow a lot of our locals are predicting over a foot of snow including here in SW Nassau County Don.

wild that 1920-1921 was in back to back years someone should do a 3 day analysis of what happened in the 3 day storm lol and how come you dont have the Jan 2016 storm listed, it should be number 2 on the list, we had 3 inches of liquid equiv in that one! edit- you only included February not the overall list lol

add JFK Tony, if you could going back to 1960 or whenever their record begins, as well as LGA please?

so this would be like a very heavy initial snow followed by a dry slot with very light showers followed by another moderate long duration snowfall as the low starts to pull away on Tuesday?

fwiw this actually has more snow on central long island than the previous run

I think I'm in a good place being on the extreme western part of the south shore

anything other than snow would be a very insignificant part of the storm outside of the twin forks and south of ocean county

the snow is gonna be too wet to do that. I'm pretty confident we stay all snow but no way is this going to be over 2 feet and even 20 inches is a very long shot

you should write more, writing improves your memory which I discovered accidentally when i started keeping a dream diary and realized I dreamed 20 or more times a night AND I'm not an old timer! I loathe the baby boomers and everything they stand for. I just told one in the financial industry the other day "the world would be a much better place if your parents' generation knew how to use condoms!"

fwiw they shouldn't be using lithium, I already complain about lithium batteries in my cameras lol. The technology isn't as developed as NiMH and NiMH batteries last a lot longer- like more than 20 years while lithium batteries (for cameras anyway) fail within 10 years regardless of how often you charge them. I also hate proprietary batteries where you're forced to buy from the manufacturer. so now I've resorted to printing my own dummy batteries using a 3D printer and adapting them to work on AC power which is of course far more reliable than lithium batteries (since they are dummy batteries they dont contain any lithium of course, they just fool the camera into thinking they are lithium batteries and are connected to a power supply which I plug into an outlet. I also made one of these that works on usb power from a laptop or phone and one that works on DC power from a car cig lighter.)

yeah I cant see anyone in the CWA getting less than 6 out of this