LibertyBell

It's dumb to predict snow over a month out regardless of which month they're predicting for (especially so in the spring anyway.) I'm having this discussion in the monthly thread why it's unreasonable to assume urban areas can get a 10" snowstorm after February, when we haven't had one in decades. Honestly, going by historical data over the past few decades... a 4" snow event in early April is far more likely than a 10" snowstorm event for NYC after February. I can give you multiple examples of 4" snowstorms in April somewhere in the NYC area from the 1980s onwards but no 10" events after February. April 1982 (8-10") April 1996 (4"-JFK) April 2003 (4-8") April 2018 (4-6") 10.0" plus all snow snowstorms in that time period after February..... "crickets"

the NWS needs to have their own network apparently.

One of those measurements from March 2009 was mine and we definitely did have a foot of snow here but it was on March 1st and since February only has 28 days it sometimes makes me wonder if that should really be counted as a March event. It was all snow at least. The other one was not. One of the big problems with late season events is that as rates lessen, you get a mixture of precip, even if the temps are below freezing. You need a hard hitting multihour band of 2 inches per hour for like 6 hours to get a big snowstorm here in March and April. Also, I agree with people who said that the temps need to be in the 20s, we've had that for all of our big late season events....can't be around 32 or even just under.

Significant snow in April occurs at least once every decade, so it's not as big of a deal as you (or he) thinks.

Wow, nice, thanks! So this shows they are more common in December than March, which is what I expected since we've seen a few big December storms in the 15-20 inch range here but haven't seen a March storm like that in my lifetime. The 2 in April doesn't include the 9.6" measured at NYC in April 1982 does it? Funny thing-- EWR measured around 13" in that one lol. Temperature definitely wasn't a problem. That was my first ever clear snowstorm memory and to this day my favorite late season snowstorm ever! I'm shocked the January total is so close to December and so far away from February, I suspect in our new climate we'll see January catch up to February within a few decades.

I also know Athena because that was the first one named and was our earliest MECS ever (8.5 inches in the first week of November and right after Sandy!)

I regularly mix up 1 and 2....never 3, since that was the GOAT!

okay in my naming scheme that's Western Suffolk 3/2018

I have a proposal, name each storm by the local area that got jackpotted. so it's Central Suffolk 2/2013 Eastern Suffolk 1/2015 JFK 1/2016

Yeah but we do need naming of winter storms....it's too confusing when there's more than one big storm in a month and I have to refer to....oh, it was the second big storm in February 2010 (as an example.) They name all big impact storms in Europe, they need to do the same here. I say name all big storms or name none, no reason for TCs to get special treatment either. Base it off of how large the area is covered by winter storm warnings and/or the number of people under them.

Those were marginal though and we need controlled scientific methods for measuring snowfall and the only ones that count for those are NYC, JFK, LGA....as much as we disagree with their measuring techniques, we have to use official NWS reporting sites and those are the only ones.

If we could get an event like March 1993 with those kinds of temps and not changeover...then we would be in business! Even in April (see April 1982). We need temps to be several degrees below freezing to combat the sun angle and urbanization factors.

April had a nice snowstorm too, that was my favorite of that entire season.

Not just Manhattan, I would include western Long Island and the rest of the city too. Basically all heavily urbanized areas around here. I prefer December much more for our big snowstorms than March.

No it's not luck, it's urbanization being a huge factor. I've often seen areas south of us have higher totals in late season events.

I dont think "average" really explains the variety of our weather. We're in the 60s at least a few times almost every winter as far back as I can remember. Average is just a smoothing out of the extremes.

lol he's behaving like 60 degrees doesn't happen in February. We get 60 degrees almost every year in either or both December and February.

Uhm is he disputing the NWS? They specifically mentioned that there won't be record highs because records are in the middle and upper 60s and we're only going to be around 60.

worse than that he always disappears just prior to and during snowstorms.

Correct and we're talking about rural parts of Long Island doing a lot better after February. Western Long Island hasn't had any 10" event after February either, just like NYC.

Chris I really think if double digit snowstorms were still reasonably possible in the city or western long island after February, they would've happened already but they haven't in decades despite the favorite new snowy climate we have. As for 20" plus...meh, the chances of getting hit by an extinction level asteroid are probably higher than NYC or urban western Long Island ever getting a 20" snowstorm after February. It's why we actually want snowy Decembers more than snowy Marches....snowy Decembers usually lead to more snowy winters. Dont get me wrong, I love to get a 6" storm in March or April, but we need to keep our expectations in check and not expect anything more than that. March 1993 was the last time NYC had a 10" snow event after February correct (and that changed to rain.) The last time we had an all snow snowstorm after the end of February was 10" in April 1982 (and it was actually 9.6" lol.....I'm not even sure when the last 10.0" plus storm after February was.)

I just don't believe 10"+ snowstorms in March in NYC and urban western Long Island are possible anymore because of the extensive urbanization enhancing the effect of sun angle. 6"+ yes, 10"+ no. I mean I wont discount a fluke once in a 50 year event, but it's not something anyone should reasonably expect. Eastern Long Island and NW areas are a different story. The storms mentioned above should've happened in February or earlier.....March is just too late.

I'm going to say that if that storm would have happened in February it would have been all snow. There's a reason NYC doesn't get 10" plus snowstorms in March....urbanization enhancing the effects of sun angle. It's why I think we can get one or even two 6" snowstorms after February (in March and April), but the chances of a 10" snowfall in NYC drop down dramatically.

By the way .....meteorology isn't an exact science, so no one should judge anyone else. I am willing to bet no one is particularly more accurate than anyone else.

More rain is also a factor and springtime seems to see a -NAO with the highest frequency.